進階搜尋


下載電子全文  
系統識別號 U0026-3007201110082800
論文名稱(中文) 應用實質選擇權分析法評估毫微型蜂巢式基地台之商業模式
論文名稱(英文) Apply Real Options Analysis to Evaluate Business Models of Femtocell
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生(中文) 鄭博駿
研究生(英文) Po-Chun Cheng
學號 R96981045
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 96頁
口試委員 指導教授-黃光渠
口試委員-張紹基
口試委員-陳文字
中文關鍵字 毫微型蜂巢式基地台  實質選擇權  網路負載量  商業模式  投資彈性 
英文關鍵字 Femtocell  Real Options Analysis (ROA)  business model  management flexibility  network load 
學科別分類
中文摘要 隨著行動通訊的需求快速成長,用戶對行動通訊服務的可及性與穩定性要求逐步提升,但建置行動基地台以提升服務品質卻伴隨高昂的建置成本與附近居民抗爭的問題,使得行動電信營運商難以提升網路覆蓋率與服務品質。毫微型蜂巢式基地台(Femtocell)的出現,以相對較低的設備支出與建置成本協助行動電信營運商提升行動網路室內通訊的服務品質。雖然許多業者已經投入毫微型蜂巢式基地台的佈建,高度的投資風險伴隨著這處於初期發展階段的科技。因此本研究依據行動業者的網路負載量規劃出不同的營運模式,透過實質選擇權分析法賦予每個營運模式經營上的彈性,藉以評估網路現況、毫微型蜂巢式基地台佈建的擴張與收縮和用戶反應做出適當的投資決策。
透過文獻回顧與資料收集,本研究將毫微型蜂巢式基地台的商業模式區隔為三種:封閉式接取模式、開放式接取模式,與混合型接取模式。從實質選擇權理論探討推動毫微型蜂巢式基地台的不確定因素,採用相對應的選擇權類型與二項樹評價模型,逐一探討各選擇權之價值及影響。本研究得到的結論如下:
1. 根據基地台負載情況進行建置的混合型商業模式將為行動電信業者帶來最高的投資效益。
2. 根據淨現值分析的結果顯示,只有混合型商業模式能夠獲利,但考量選擇權價值的分析結果,除了混合型接取模式獲利明顯增加外,封閉式接取商業模式的投資效益亦能轉虧為利,使得這兩種商業模式皆可被營運商採用。
根據研究結果建議行動電信業者可依據行動基地台的負載情況決定毫微型蜂巢式基地台的建置策略以及評估投資計畫時應將管理彈性的價值納入考量計算完整的投資效益。
英文摘要 The demand for better accessibility and higher reliability in the cellular network is increasing due to more and more usage in mobile services. Building macrocell is a solution which has been widely adopted by mobile operators; however, it becomes increasingly difficult during the last decade by excessive installation cost and protests from nearby inhabitants. Currently, femtocell is expected as an option to enhance indoor coverage and network capacity with low deploying and operating cost. Thus many mobile operators have installed femtocells over their existing networks. Development of femtocell deployment and business models are at an early stage, and uncertainties of femtocell make investment risky. Therefore, this study differentiates femtocell business models by loading factor of network capacity and compute net present value of each business model. In addition, real options approach is applied to all business models for assessing management flexibility for expanding/ contracting investment scale based on different demand responses.
To gain insight from femtocell business model evaluation, the research adopts two-step analysis: The first step analyzes different business strategies and separates them into close access model, open access model, and mixed access model by access mode and charge of femtocell. The next step applies real options analysis to evaluate expand option, contract option and option to choose into each business model.
The result shows that the mixed access model is preferred to mobile operators. It means that mobile operators would choose a business model based on the status of traffic loading of its network capacity for achieving higher investment efficiency. Besides, management flexibility is necessary to take into consideration for making decisions with complete and correct information, because it can lead to critical effect of decision making. The result of net present value depicts that only mixed access model can create positive returns; however, the results of real options approach shows that the return of close access model could become positive with option values to be considered. Return of mixed access model has some significant improvement.
論文目次 Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1. Background and Motivation 1
1.2. Objectives of the Research 5
1.3. Structure of the Research 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 8
2.1. Introduction of Femtocell 8
2.1.1. Concept of femtocell 8
2.1.2. Benefits of femtocell 11
2.2. Technical Aspects of Femtocell 14
2.2.1. Network architecture 14
2.2.2. Access control mechanism 15
2.3. Development of Femtocell 17
2.4. Traditional Valuation 23
2.5. Real Options Approach 25
2.5.1. Financial options 25
2.5.2. Real options 26
2.5.3. Apply ROA in telecommunication sector 30
Chapter 3 Research Method 35
3.1. Business Models of Femtocell 35
3.1.1. Analysis of business models 35
3.1.2. Description of business models 38
3.2. Application of Real Options Methodology 45
3.2.1. Application of Real Options Analysis 45
3.2.2. Mathematical model 47
3.3. Basic Assumptions and Parameter Definitions 52
3.3.1. Revenue flow estimation 52
3.3.2. Cost estimation 56
Chapter 4 Results and Discussions 63
4.1. Analysis of Closed Access Model 63
4.1.1. Results of NPV analysis of closed access model 63
4.1.2. Results of Real Options analysis of closed access model 65
4.2. Analysis of Open Access Model 72
4.2.1. Results of NPV analysis of open access model 72
4.2.2. Results of real Option analysis of open access model 74
4.3. Analysis of mixed access model 80
4.3.1. Results of NPV analysis of open access model 80
4.3.2. Results of Real Option Analysis of open access model 82
4.4. Comparative Analysis for proposed business models 88
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestions of Future Work 91
5.1. Conclusions 91
5.2. Limitations of the research 92
5.3. Suggestions for future work 92
Reference 94
參考文獻 [1] Alleman, J. (2002). A new view of telecommunications economics. Telecommunications Policy, 26(1-2), 87-92.
[2] Angelou, G. N., & Economides, A. A. (2005). Flexible ICT investments analysis using real options. International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 5(2), 146-166.
[3] Athwal, B., Harmantzis, F. C., & Tanguturi, V. P. (2010). Valuing Hosted VoIP services in the enterprise market: case application using real options. International Journal of Technology Management, 49(1), 250-271.
[4] Benzoni, L., Gresser, N., & Vuong, C. H. (2008). Invest Today or Tomorrow? A Real Option Approach to Strategic Development in the French DSL Market. Communications & Strategies, 1(70), 89-100.
[5] Bhagat, S. (2000). Real options applications in the telecommunications industry. The new investment theory of real options and its implication for telecommunications economics, 35-47.
[6] Chandrasekhar, V., Andrews, J., & Gatherer, A. (2008). Femtocell networks: a survey. Communications Magazine, IEEE, 46(9), 59-67.
[7] Cisco. (2011). Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010–2015: Cisco.
[8] Claussen, H., Ho, L., & Samuel, L. (2007). Financial analysis of a pico-cellular home network deployment.
[9] Cox, J. C., Ross, S. A., & Rubinstein, M. (1979). Option pricing: A simplified approach. Journal of financial Economics, 7(3), 229-263.
[10] De La Roche, G., Valcarce, A., Lopez-Perez, D., & Zhang, J. (2010). Access control mechanisms for femtocells. Communications Magazine, IEEE, 48(1), 33-39.
[11] Femtocell Market Status. (2010).
[12] Fixing the Follies of Femtocells. 2010, Tolaga Research. p. 16.
[13] Gerhardt, W., & Medcalf, R. (2010). Femtocells: Implementing a Better Business Model To Increase SP Profitability.
[14] Harmantzis, F. C., & Tanguturi, V. P. (2007). Investment decisions in the wireless industry applying real options. [doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2006.02.005]. Telecommunications Policy, 31(2), 107-123.
[15] Harno, J., Bedo, J. S., & Katsianis, D. (2005). Analysis of 3G mobile technology rollout alternatives using real options methodology.
[16] Kalhagen, K. O., & Elnegaard, N. K. (2002). Assessing broadband investment risk through option theory. Telektronikk, 98(2/3), 51-62.
[17] Lannoo, B., Verbrugge, S., Van Ooteghem, J., De Bruyne, J., Joseph, W., Colle, D., et al. (2007). Economic feasibility study of a mobile WiMAX rollout in Belgium: Sensitivity analysis and real options thinking.
[18] Lannoo, B., Tahon, M., Van Ooteghem, J., Pareit, D., Casier, K., Verbrugge, S., et al. (2009). Game-theoretic evaluation of competing wireless access networks for offering Mobile Internet.
[19] Lopez-Perez, D., Valcarce, A., De La Roche, G., Enjie, L., & Jie, Z. (2008, 19-21 Nov. 2008). Access methods to WiMAX femtocells: A downlink system-level case study. Paper presented at the Communication Systems, 2008. ICCS 2008. 11th IEEE Singapore International Conference on.
[20] Luehrman, T. (1998). Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options. Harvard Business Review, 76(5), 89-99.
[21] Luehrman, T. A. (1998). Investment Opportunities as Real Options: Getting Started on the Numbers. Harvard Business Review, 76(4), 51-67.
[22] Markendahl, J., Makitalo, O., & Werding, J. (2008). Analysis of Cost Structure and Business Model options for Wireless Access provisioning using Femtocell solutions.
[23] Markendahl, J., & Makitalo, O. (2010). A comparative study of deployment options, capacity and cost structure for macrocellular and femtocell networks.
[24] Mun, J. (2006). Real options analysis: tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions (Vol. 320): Wiley.
[25] Paxson, D. and H. Pinto (2004). Third Generation Mobile Games-An application of real competition options: Citeseer.
[26] Ramirez, W., Harmantzis, F. C., & Tanguturi, V. P. (2007). Valuing wireless data services solutions for corporate clients using real options. International Journal of Mobile Communications, 5(3), 259-280.
[27] Sadowski, B. M., Verheijen, M., & Nucciarelli, A. (2008). From Experimentation to Citywide Rollout: Real Options for a Municipal WiMax Network in the Netherlands. Communications & Strategies, 1(70), 101-126.
[28] Saunders, S., Carlaw, S., Giustina, A., Raj Bhat, R., Srinivasa Rao, V., & Siegberg, R. (2009). Introduction to Femtocells: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
[29] Tanguturi, V. P., & Harmantzis, F. C. (2006). Migration to 3G wireless broadband internet and real options: The case of an operator in India. [doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2006.02.004]. Telecommunications Policy, 30(7), 400-419.
[30] The Business Case for Femtocells in The Mobile Broadband Era. (2010). Signals Research Group.
[31] Trigeorgis, L. (2000). Real options: a primer. The new investment theory of real options and its implication for telecommunications economics, 3-33.
[32] Wu, H. (2005). Real option-a new approach in the evaluation of telecom investment projects. The Journal of China Universities of Posts and Telecommunications, 12(4), 98-102.
[33] Zhang, J., De La Roche, G., Valcarce, A., David, L., Enjie, L., & Song, H. (2010). Femtocells: Technologies and Deployment: Wiley.
論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2012-08-17起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2012-08-17起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw