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系統識別號 U0026-3001201515513700
論文名稱(中文) 使用機器學習技術預測大學生轉系及轉校行為之研究
論文名稱(英文) CHURN PREDICTION FOR A PRIVATE UNIVERSITY IN SOUTH TAIWAN USING MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 會計學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Accountancy
學年度 103
學期 1
出版年 104
研究生(中文) 彭淳奕
研究生(英文) Chun-Yi Peng
學號 R16001378
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 61頁
口試委員 指導教授-徐立群
口試委員-鍾毓驥
口試委員-蕭鉢
中文關鍵字 機器學習  Decision Tree  SVM  Logistic Regression  客戶流失  學生轉學 
英文關鍵字 Machine learning  AD-Tree  SVM  Logistic Regression  Customer churn  Student transfer 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究將機器學習方法套用到學生是否轉學或轉系上,利用南部某私立大學的資訊學院的資料進行研究,透過Decision Tree、SVM(Support Vector Machine)和Logistic Regression的基本框架下,來建立學生轉學或轉系之模型。透過模型所歸納出來的法則,提供給管理者擬定方針,針對欲要轉學或轉系的學生進行輔導或改善教學品質。本研究希望能夠降低轉學或是轉系的發生率。
英文摘要 Currently, universities in Taiwan are facing many management pressures on the insufficient enrollment due to the low birth rate. To make the school continuously operate and to enhance the competitiveness, the universities have to avoid the loss of students. In this study, we propose the student transfer problem meaning the loss of students who switch from one university to another. We use machine learning techniques to address the problem. We study different machine learning methods such as decision tree, support vector machine (SVM) and Logistic Regression, and use them to construct a student transfer prediction model. The prediction model can be used to predict whether a student will switch from one university to another. Our results show that the student transfer mode built by the decision tree has the best prediction capability. We also use our prediction model to infer several strategies that university administrative chiefs can use them to cope with the student transfer problem.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 1
1.3研究限制 3
1.4研究貢獻 3
1.5論文架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1客戶流失 5
2.2機器學習 6
2.3應用監督式機器學習方法於客戶流失問題之研究探討 7
2.3.1 Decision tree 7
2.3.2 Alternating Decision Tree 8
2.3.3 Support Vector Machine 10
2.3.4 LibSVM 12
2.3.5 Logistic Regression 13
第三章 研究方法 15
3.1 研究架構 15
3.2資料描述 16
3.3資料前處理 16
3.4 評估方法 17
3.5 F-measure 18
3.6 Receiver Operating Characteristic cure 18
第四章 實證研究 21
4.1客戶流失套用到轉學生上 21
4.2客戶流失套用到轉系生上 46
第五章 結論與建議 57
參考文獻 59
參考文獻 一、中文文獻
吳碧娥,2014,“私校悲歌!105年大學將掀起少子化倒閉潮”,北美智權報,,http://www.naipo.com/Portals/1/web_tw/Knowledge_Center/Editorial/publish-193.htm

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