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系統識別號 U0026-2908201703241200
論文名稱(中文) 評估氣候變遷下離島地區之脆弱度─以澎湖縣為例
論文名稱(英文) The Vulnerability Assessment of Island Area on Climate Change: The Case Study of Penghu County, Taiwan
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 都市計劃學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Urban Planning
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生(中文) 蘇郁珊
研究生(英文) Yu-Shan Su
學號 P26044203
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 91頁
口試委員 指導教授-鄒克萬
口試委員-洪于婷
口試委員-趙子元
口試委員-李子璋
中文關鍵字 島嶼城市  脆弱度  細胞自動機  馬可夫鍊 
英文關鍵字 island city  vulnerability  cellular automata  markov-chain model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 現今全球氣候與環境變遷引起的災害事件頻率增加,島嶼為一空間受侷限的封閉系統,本屬高災害風險區,對於外界產生的災害較無足夠的調適能力,以防災為導向的土地使用規劃策略是島嶼地區重要的議題之一。過去相關研究中,脆弱度多為單一時間點現象評估,並對於土地使用之衝擊關係較少探討,不易有效掌握空間上複雜的環境衝擊關係(Talen, 2005),無法進一步了解環境脆弱度在時空變遷下的發展趨勢。基於上述原因,本研究以澎湖本島為研究地區,首先提出10項重要脆弱度指標,將研究地區分割為20M×20M之網格(grid),並考量聯合國UNEP(2005)脆弱度分析方法,配合離島的環境資料,以評估區位及環境的暴露度、海岸自然環境的敏感程度、及受災時的嚴重程度與調適力;最後,運用細胞自動機(CA)結合馬可夫鍊模型來模擬未來澎湖土地使用的空間分布情形,希冀藉由本研究掌握土地利用的時空演變,提供澎湖地區土地使用規劃與管理政策調整之依據,以預為因應氣候變遷之衝擊,提高整體抗災能力。
英文摘要 Nowadays the global climate and environment changes, resulting the land use planning based on disaster prevention is one of the important issues in the future. Especially for island country is more important, the island is a space closure system, belongs to the high risk area, that the disaster caused by the outside effect is not enough to adjust ability. In the past relevant research, the impact of vulnerability data were collected at one point in time, and also a lack of discussion on space impact influence. However, the different land use zoning had spatial structure differences that was not easy to control the complex relationship of environmental impact in effect and was unable to understand the vulnerability in different land characteristics, and to discussion on development trend. Based on the above reasons, this study takes Penghu as the research area. First, selecting the 10 important vulnerability indicators, include the natural environment, social and economic aspects. Second, it cut into 20M × 20M grid cells. Appling the UNEP (2005) Vulnerability analysis method to investigate environmental sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation of island coastal area development. Finally, based on cellular automata theory, combining the vulnerability assessment, Cellular automata(CA) and Markov-chain model, simulating space distribution situation of future developing land. The results could be the spatial strategies references for coastal land use, disaster prevention and island city development in the future.
論文目次 第一章 緒論……………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的……………………………1
第二節 研究內容與方法……………………………3
第三節 研究範疇……………………………6
第四節 研究流程……………………………7
第二章 文獻回顧與探討……………………………8
第一節 氣候變遷對島嶼之影響……………………………8
第二節 脆弱度相關理論……………………………14
第三節 細胞自動機理論及相關研究……………………………23
第三章 研究設計……………………………33
第一節 脆弱度評估指標及分析方法……………………………33
第二節 細胞自動機模型與空間多準則評估……………………………41
第四章 實證分析……………………………52
第一節 實證地區概述……………………………52
第二節 澎湖本島整體脆弱度……………………………56
第三節 澎湖本島土地使用變遷模擬建構分析……………………………66
第五章 結論與建議……………………………81
第一節 研究結論……………………………81
第二節 研究建議……………………………83
參考文獻 ……………………………85
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