進階搜尋


 
系統識別號 U0026-2906201016432700
論文名稱(中文) 消費者購買環保電動機車屬性偏好之研究
論文名稱(英文) Exploring Consumers’ Preferences for Attributes of Electric Motorcycle
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science
學年度 98
學期 2
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 陳宛宜
研究生(英文) Wan-Yi Chen
學號 R5697413
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 88頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳勁甫
口試委員-蔡東峻
口試委員-溫傑華
中文關鍵字 環保電動機車  敘述性偏好  羅吉特模式  偏好異質性  敏感度分析 
英文關鍵字 Electric motorcycle  Stated preference  Logit model  Preference heterogeneity  Sensitivity analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 面對龐大的私人運具導致交通擁擠、生態環境破壞,以及油價逐年高漲的壓力下,發展環保電動機車成為全球各國政府積極推動的一項產業。儘管環保電動機車並非首次出現於我國市場上,但因目前之產品其性能、效能較過去良好,故了解民眾對於環保電動機車之偏好成為本研究的主要課題。本研究將透過敘述性偏好和個體選擇模式來分析消費者之偏好,並運用混合羅吉特模式、交互項變數及環境科技態度分群,以瞭解消費者對於購買環保電動機車之偏好異質性,最後則依據研究結果進行屬性成分效用值和市場敏感度分析。
研究結果顯示,受訪者對於環保電動機車、車輛之最高速度、騎乘距離以及能源補充便利性,皆有正向顯著的偏好;對於機車售價呈現負向顯著偏好。環境態度愈高之受訪者愈顯著偏好選擇氫燃料電池電動機車;受訪者對於鋰電池電動機車存在異質偏好。屬性相對重要程度以能源補充便利性所占的比例最高,顯示其影響民眾方案選擇之程度為最大。市場敏感度中以最高速度的彈性估計結果對受訪者選擇機率影響較大;最高速度改變對於車輛選擇比例變動之影響最大;以及相較鋰電池電動機車,氫燃料電池電動機車於未來市場上具有較高之競爭優勢。藉由本研究結果可作為政府單位策略擬定,以及機車業者產品研發、行銷之參考依據。
英文摘要 Faced with the traffic congestion, ecological damage by a mount of private vehicles, and the pressure of rising oil price recently, it is important to develop the electric motorcycle industry. Although electric motorcycle is not the first time in the market, product performance is better than the past. Therefore, the aim of this study is to understand consumers’ preferences. This study focuses on consumers’ preferential valuation of electric motorcycle by stated preference method and employing logit models to estimate electric motorcycle choice behavior. In addition, environmental attitude is used to evaluate how segment of consumer affects attributes’ heterogeneity preference. Based on the emprtical results to evaluate part-worth utility and market sensitivity analysis finally.
The results indicate that electric motorcycle, top speed, curing range and refueling facility accessibility exhibit statistically significant effect on consumers’ preferences. The price of motorcycle has a negative effect on consumers’ preference. The higher environmental attitude consumers will more significantly prefer hydrogen electric motor. Moreover, consumers’ have preferred heterogeneity for lithium electric motor. In relative importance weights, refueling facility accessibility is relative importance than other. In market simulation, the elasticity values of top speed are larger than other attributes. The hydrogen electric motorcycle has more competitive advantage in the future. The results could provide the government and manufactures useful information when designing different marketing and promotional strategies.
論文目次 目錄
中文摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
第一章、緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 5
1.3研究範圍與對象 5
1.4研究流程 5
1.5研究架構 7
第二章、文獻回顧 8
2.1國內外電動機車發展歷程和現況 8
2.1.1國內電動機車發展歷程與現況 8
2.1.2國外電動車和電動機車發展現況 12
2.2電動機車技術發展 12
2.3敘述性偏好法 20
2.3.1敘述性偏好法理論意涵 20
2.3.2敘述性偏好法之實驗設計 21
2.3.3敘述性偏好法衡量和參數估計方式 21
2.4替代能源車輛選擇行為之文獻 22
2.5小結 28
第三章、個體選擇模式 29
3.1多項羅吉特模式 30
3.1.1選擇機率形式 30
3.1.2參數估計 30
3.1.3模式限制 31
3.2 混合羅吉特模式 31
3.2.1混合羅吉特模式 31
3.2.2選擇機率形式 32
3.2.3參數估計 33
3.3 屬性偏好異質性和羅吉特模式檢定 33
3.3.1屬性偏好異質性 33
3.3.2羅吉特模式檢定 34
3.4敏感度分析 35
3.4.1彈性分析 35
3.4.2市占率分析 36
3.5問卷設計 36
3.5.1前測問卷 36
3.5.2屬性水準值設計 38
3.6敘述性偏好實驗設計與樣本抽樣 41
3.6.1實驗設計 41
3.6.2 問卷抽樣 43
第四章、實證分析 45
4.1問卷樣本特性 45
4.1.1人口統計特性 45
4.1.2環境和科技態度特性 47
4.2 模式效用函數變數之設定 49
4.3羅吉特模式分析結果 52
4.3.1多項羅吉特模式分析之結果 52
4.3.2混合羅吉特模式分析之結果 55
4.3.3概似比檢定 59
4.4屬性成份效用值(Part-Worth Utility) 60
第五章、市場預測 63
5.1 彈性分析 63
5.2 車輛偏好之選擇比例變動 64
第六章、結論與建議 72
6.1結論 72
6.2建議 73
6.2.1政府單位推廣和業者經營建議 73
6.2.2 後續研究建議 76
參考文獻 77
中文文獻 77
英文文獻 78
附錄一 前測問卷 82
附錄二 正式問卷 84


參考文獻 中文文獻
1.交通部統計資料: http://www.motc.gov.tw/
2.行政院環保署:http://www.epa.gov.tw/
3.行政院經濟建設委員會:http://www.cepd.gov.tw/
4.台灣中油股份有限公司:http://www.cpc.com.tw/big5/home
5.電動車輛產業網:http://proj.moeaidb.gov.tw/lev/
6.綠色能源產業資訊網:http://www.taiwangreenenergy.org.tw/
7.台灣燃料電池資訊網:http://www.tfci.org.tw/Fc/index.asp
8.益通動能科技:http://chinese.e-ton.com.tw/index.html
9.比雅久:http://www.pgo.com.tw/index.shtml
10.亞太燃料電池:http://www.apfct.com/
11.中華汽車e-moving:http://www.e-moving.com.tw/
12.李育明和潘富生,電動機車推廣政策之檢討,永續產業發展雙週刊,2003年。
13.全球電動機車產品發展概述,電動車輛產業資訊週刊,2005年。
14.「世界主要氫燃料電池研發和示範工程」,工研院 IEK 整理,2009年。
15.王津淇(1998),電動機車之需求模式—以台南市為例,國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文。
16.王維瑩(2008),家戶汽機車車型與車齡選擇模式之構建,國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文。
17.張丞邦(1997),電動機車使用特性與購買行為之研究,國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文。
18.張彥純(2006),響消費者採用行動付款因素之研究,國立中央大學資訊管理學系碩士在職專班碩士論文。
19.潘富生(2002),電動機車與燃油機車生命週期盤查分析,國立台北大學資源管理研究所碩士論文。
20.劉安錫和徐光蓉,電動機車政策之效益評估,中華民國環境保護學會學刊,29(1),頁57-69,2006年。
21.劉家偉(2005),聯合分析在3C產品偏好研究上之應用—以筆記型電腦為例,國立台灣大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
22.凌瑞賢(2004),運輸規劃原理與實務,初版,台北:鼎漢國際工程顧問公司。

英文文獻
1.Arne, R. H. (2008). Modelling heterogeneity in patients’ preferences for the attributes of a general practitioner appointment, Journal of Health Economics, Vol.27, pp.1078-1094.
2.Bailey, A. (1980). Socioeconomic variables and attitudes of consumers related to energy conservation behavior. Dissertation Abstracts International, Vol.40, No.10, 5341-A.
3.Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, S. R. (1985). Discrete choice analysis: Theory and application to travel demand, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
4.Bunch, D. S., Bradley, M., Golob, T. F., Kitamura, R. and Occhiuzzo, G. P. (1993). Demand for clean-fuel vehicles in California: A discrete choice stated preference pilot project, Transportation Research Part A, Vol.27, pp.237-253.
5.Brownstone, D. and Train, K. (1999). Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.89, pp.109-129.
6.Brownstone, D., Bunch, D. and Train, K. (2000). Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles, Transportation Research Part B, Vol.34, pp. 315-338.
7.Boxall, P.C. and Adamowicz, W.L. (2002).Understanding heterogeneous preferences in random utility models: A latent class approach, Environmental and Resource, Vol.23, pp.421-446.
8.Chiu, Y. C. and Tzeng, G. H. (1999).The market acceptance of electric motorcycles in Taiwan experience through a stated preference analysis, Transportation Research Part D, Vol.4, pp.127-146.
9.Dagsvik, J. K., Wennemo, T., Wetterwald, D. G. and Aaberge, R. (2002) Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles, Transportation Research Part B, Vol.36, pp.361-384.
10.Ewing, G.and Sarigollu, E. (2000). Assessing consumer preferences for clean-fuel vehicles: a discrete choice experiment. J. Public Policy Mark, Vol.19, pp.106-118.
11.Fowkes, T. and Wardman, M. (1988). The Design of Stated Preference Travel Choice Experiments, with Special Reference to Interpersonal Taste Variations, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol.22, No.1, pp.27-44.
12.Kroes, E. P.and Sheldon, R. J. (1988). Stated preference method: An introduction, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol.22, No.1, pp.11-25.
13.Kelly, J., Haider, W., Williams, P. W. and Englund, K. (2007). Stated preferences of tourists for eco-efficient destination planning options, Tourism management, Vol.28, pp.377-390.
14.Laroche, M., Bergeron, J. and Barbara-Forleo, G. (2001). Targeting consumers who are willing to pay more for environmentally friendly products. Journal of Consumer Marketing, Vol.18, pp.503-520.
15.Lockie, S., Lyons, K., Lawrence, G. and Grice, J. (2004). Choosing organics: A path analysis of factors underlying the selection of organic food among Australian consumers. Appetite, Vol.43, pp.135-146.
16.Loureiro, M. L. and Hine, S. (2004). Preferences and willingness to pay for GM labeling policies. Food Policy, Vol.29, pp.467-483.
17.Lee, J. and Cho, Y. (2009). Demand forecasting of diesel passenger car considering consumer preference and government regulation in South Korea, Transportation Research Part A, Vol.43, pp. 420-429.
18.McFadden, D. (1975). The revealed references of government bureaucracy: Theory,
The Bell Journal of Economics, Vol.6, No.2, pp.410-416.
19.McFadden, D. and Train, K. (2000). Mixed mnl models for discrete response, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.15, pp.447-470.
20.Marka, T. L. and Swait, J. (2004). Using stated preference and revealed preference modeling to evaluate prescribing decisions, Health Economics, Vol.13, pp.563-573.
21.Oh, C.and Ditton, R. (2006). Using recreation specialization to understand multi-attribute management preferences, Leisure Sciences, Vol.28, pp.369-384.
22.Pearmain, D. and Swanson, J. (1991). Stated Preference Techniques: a Guide to Practice, second edition, New York: Steer Davies Gleave.
23.Poortinga, W., Steg, L., Velk, C, and Wiersma, G. (2003). Household preferences for
energy- saving measures: A conjoint analysis, Journal of Economic Psychology,Vol.
24, pp. 49-64.
24.Porter, C. E. and Donthu, N. (2006). Using the technology acceptance model to explain how attitudes determine Internet usage: The role of perceived access barriers and demographics, Journal of Business Research, Vol.59, pp.9991007.
25.Potoglu, D. and Kanaroglu, P.S. (2007). Household demand and willingness to pay for clean vehicles, Transportation Research Part D, Vol.12, pp. 264-274.
26.Revelt, D. and Train, K. (1998). Mixed logit with repeated choices, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.80, pp.647-657.
27.Saphores, J. D., Nixon, H., Ogunseitan, 0.and Shapiro, A. (2007). California households' willingness to pay for "green" electronics. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Vol.50, pp.113-133.
28.Scarpa, R. and Willis, K. G. (2009). Willingness-to-pay for renewable energy: Primary and discretionary choice of British households’ for micro-generation technologies. Forthcoming in Energy Economics.
29.Train, K. (2003). Discrete choice methods with simulation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
30.Van Liere, D. K. and Dunlap, R. E. (1981). Environmental concern dose it make a difference how it`s measured? Environment and Behavior, Vol.13, No.6, pp.651-676.
論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2015-07-02起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2015-07-02起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw