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系統識別號 U0026-2808201316360500
論文名稱(中文) 用實質選擇權方法來評價高速公路由人工收費系統轉換為電子收費系統之轉換效益
論文名稱(英文) A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of Switching Benefits Between Manual Toll Collection and ETC of Freeway
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融研究所在職專班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Finance (on the job class)
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 顏應明
研究生(英文) Ying-Ming Yen
電子信箱 comdycs@seed.net.tw
學號 R87991075
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 60頁
口試委員 指導教授-劉裕宏
口試委員-顏盟峯
口試委員-姜一銘
中文關鍵字 實質選擇權  電子收費系統  人工收費系統  轉換選擇權 
英文關鍵字 Real Options  Electronic Toll Collection  ETC  Manual Toll Collection  Switching Option 
學科別分類
中文摘要 有關高速公路系統任何新投資的評價,在決策管理上往往存在著不確定的狀況(譬如何時要建造、或放棄、或擴張、或交換等之決定),本研究是以國內高速公路系統為應用對象,運用實質選擇權的方法來評價由人工收費系統轉換為電子收費系統(ETC)之轉換效益,因為傳統的評價方法較不容易掌握ETC建置取代人工收費系統的附增價值。本研究的主要目的在於利用交換選擇權的方法來探討以電子收費系統取代人工收費系統的效益,並利用交通部高速公路管理局(TANFB)的交通量與過路費收入等統計資料進行分析,經實證分析後,本研究所發展的模式對於高速公路收費收入在轉換效益之評價上具有營運彈性(Operational Flexibility)的價值,並發現ETC的建置明顯影響高速公路使用者對於通過收費站理想型態(例如人工收費或電子收費)的認知。
英文摘要 The valuation of new investment in the freeway system exists strategic decision making under conditions of uncertainty, such as, to build, to abandon, to expand, to exchange etc. This is the case for the valuation of freeway toll in Taiwan, where real options apply to a decision making when a new toll collection method (Electronic Toll Collection, hereafter, ETC) can be used to substitute for an existing Manual Toll Collection. It means an added value for the ETC project that cannot be easily captured using traditional evaluation methodology for investment projects. The principle objective of this research is to introduce a technology switching option which allows a freeway system to exchange an existing technology (Manual Toll Collection) for a new technology (ETC). This study tests the model on a panel of data collected from Taiwan Area National Freeway Bureau (TANFB). This methodology is applied to the case of the Taiwan freeway, using real data, and it is an appropriate tool for the valuation of switching benefits on freeway toll that have operational flexibility. The research results show that ETC tunnel significantly affects user’s perception of the ideal type of passing toll-stations.
論文目次 Contents
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Motivations of the Research 1
1.2 Organization of the Thesis 7
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 8
2.1 Real Options 8
2.2 Pricing the Exchange Option - The Margrabe Formula 11
2.3 The Development of Freeway in Taiwan 13
2.3.1 History and Responsibilities 13
2.3.2 Manual Toll Collection-Revenue Earning Business (Agent sales of ticket book certificates) 14
2.3.3 Toll Collection Data 14
2.3.4 Toll Stations 16
2.3.5 ETC 17
Chapter 3 The Model 19
3.1 Modeling a Freeway System 19
3.2 Modeling the Revenue Function 19
3.3 Modeling the Cost Function 21
3.4 Traffic Demand 22
3.5 Market Value of Freeway Toll 24
3.6 Freeway’s Probability of using ETC 27
3.7 The Valuation of the Technology Switching Option 29
3.8 The Benefits of ETC in Taiwan 30
Chapter 4 DATA REQUIREMENT AND ANALYSIS 34
4.1 Data and Sample Selection 34
4.1.1 Sample Selection 37
4.1.2 Descriptive Statistics 41
4.1.3 Probability of ETC Innovation 43
4.2 Empirical Results 45
Chapter 5 Discussion and Conclusion 48
References 50
Appendix A 52
Appendix B 56


參考文獻 References
Chinese:
1.王玉貝 (2008),國內高速公路電子收費系統成本效益分析-以國道1號及3號高速公路為例,國立東華大學管理學院高階經營管理碩士在職專班碩士論文。
2.林淑茹 (2001),高速公路使用電子收費系統之成本效益評估,國立臺灣大學土木工程學研究所碩士論文。
3.張學孔、賴禎秀、吳清慈 (2004),高速公路使用電子收費系統之車道配置及其成本效益分析,運輸計畫季刊,第33卷,第一期,頁29-57。

English:
1.Black F. and Scholes M., (1973), The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
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15.Trigeorgis, L., (1993), Real Options and Interactions with Financial Flexibility, Financial Management; Autumn 1993; 22(3); ABI/INFORM Global.
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17.Zhao, T. and Tseng, C.L., (2003), Valuing Flexibility in Infrastructure Expansion., Journal Infrastructure System, 9(3), 89–97.
18.Zhao, T., Sundararajan, S. K. and Tseng, C., (2004), Highway Development Decision -Making under Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 10(1), 23-32.
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