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系統識別號 U0026-2807202013154400
論文名稱(中文) 想像未來世代是否增進永續發展投資意願-以氣候變遷為例
論文名稱(英文) Whether the process of imaginary future generations increases the willingness of investing sustainable development – the case of climate change
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 楊子慶
研究生(英文) Tzu-Ching Yang
學號 U56071099
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 107頁
口試委員 指導教授-郭彥廉
口試委員-林常青
口試委員-池秉聰
中文關鍵字 氣候變遷因應  未來設計  想像未來世代  公共財賽局  獨裁者賽局 
英文關鍵字 climate change response  future design  imaginary future generation  public goods game  dictator game 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究旨在探討想像未來世代(Imaginary future generation,IFG)於氣候變遷的因應上是否有助於增進個人及團體的投資意願。在自然科學,氣候變遷一直是學者重視的議題。雖然在經濟學,實驗經濟學已有豐富的研究經驗及成果。但在氣候變遷議題的應用上仍有困難,理由其一氣候變遷具有高度不確定性的長期影響,其二因應政策效益包含了具公共財性質的溫室氣體減緩及具私有財性質的氣候變遷調適,整體氣候變遷因應是一種跨世代的混合財,無法以單一個體經濟或總體經濟的角度來做衡量。而近年,日本學者提出一種全新的想法:未來設計(Future design,FD),其中的關鍵「想像未來世代」是透過想像未來的過程促使人們對未來多加考量並正視對將來的規劃,進一步緩解代際衝突並增加個人的永續觀念。而這啟發我們從另一個角度來探究氣候變遷與人類社會間的關係。本研究將獨裁者賽局(Dictator game)及公共財賽局(Public goods game)應用於長期氣候變遷因應並進行跨代賽局實驗,實驗結果發現想像未來世代於個人之氣候變遷因應多增加近 14% 的投資金額,更進一步發現個人投資意願於團體決策的顯著正向影響,間接證實想像未來世代的加入於團體之氣候變遷因應存在顯著正向影響,最後透過文字分析證實想像未來世代的過程使受試者想法更偏向永續性議題。
英文摘要 This study analyzes the impact whether the process of imaginary future generation increases the individual or group’s willingness of investing climate change mitigation. In social science, climate change has always been an important issue for scholars. In economics, there are already great research results and experiment experiences in the fields of experimental economics. However, there are still difficult to introduce climate change issue into economic experiments because climate change has highly uncertainty and its response approaches have different economic significance. Responding to climate change involves two possible approaches: mitigation and adaptation. While mitigation of greenhouse gases can be viewed as a public good, adaptation to climate change is a private good.

In recent years, Japanese researchers proposed the ideal, Future design, make people ponder the future. Imaginary future generation, one way of Future design, having people play the role of future generation’s spokesman. Through progress of Imaginary future generation to make people face up to sustainable problem and solve intergenerational problem. We apply dictator game and public goods game to long-term climate change response. The results show that Imaginary future generation increase 14% individual investment amount of climate change response, indicate that personal willingness of investing has positive effects in team works and process of Imaginary future generation makes subject’s ideas more sustainable. Therefore, the results prove incorporating Imaginary future generation into group’s climate change response has positive influence.
論文目次 摘要 i
目錄 vi
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 章節架構 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 未來設計 7
第二節 獨裁者賽局及公共財賽局之應用 10
第三節 文獻總結 12
第三章 實驗設計 13
第一節 氣候變遷因應模型 13
第二節 利他主義之分析 15
第三節 未來想像之文字分析 17
第四節 賽局設計 17
第五節 實驗流程 20
1. 受試者招募 20
2. 實驗程序 23
3. 補貼計算 28
第四章 資料與實證分析 30
第一節 實驗資料 30
第二節 實證分析 32
第五章 實證結果 45
第一節 敘述性統計 45
第二節 實證結果 59
第六章 結論與建議 70
第一節 結論 70
第二節 建議 72
參考文獻 74
附錄一 環境問卷 77
附錄二 實驗賽局試題 83
附錄三 實驗賽局題目(線上) 96
附錄四 氣候變遷議題 98
附錄五 受試者收據 100
附錄六 行為實驗參與同意書 101
附錄七 實驗場地 102
附錄八 單因子變異數分析(Analysis of variance,ANOVA) 104
1 . 賽局乘數(HMtime)於PG4、PG5之單因子變異數分析 104
2 . 學院(department)於DG1之單因子變異數分析 104
3 . 學院(department)於DG2之單因子變異數分析 104
4 . 學院(department)於PG3之單因子變異數分析 105
5 . 學院(department)於PG4之單因子變異數分析 105
6 . 學院(department)於PG5之單因子變異數分析 105
7 . 學院(department)於IFGPG之單因子變異數分析 105
8 . 團體組合於Team 之單因子變異數分析 106
附錄九 傾向評分匹配(Propensity Score Matching,PSM) 107


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