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論文名稱(中文) 台灣消費、股市及進出口受金融海嘯之影響
論文名稱(英文) A Study on Effect the Financial Crisis Has on Taiwan’s Consumption Expenses, Stock Price Index, Imports, and Exports
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 國際企業研究所碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Institute of International Business
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 顏宏任
研究生(英文) Hong-Jen Yen
學號 r66004075
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 57頁
口試委員 指導教授-康信鴻
口試委員-張紹基
口試委員-許永明
口試委員-林懿貞
口試委員-傅英芬
中文關鍵字 金融海嘯  民生消費  股市  進出口 
英文關鍵字 financial crisis  consumption  stock  import/export 
學科別分類
中文摘要 2007發生的次級房貸風暴及2008的金融海嘯對於台灣經濟造成衝擊。台灣民生消費過去以來一直平穩,但金融海嘯發生後,消費信心受挫,人們消費變得保守;投資方面,台灣的金融市場中以「股票」為主,股市交易熱絡,2007年加權指數曾有高達近萬點的高峰;但2007年底爆發次貸;2008年爆發金融海嘯,股市重挫,投資人失去信心,大盤加權指數一度跌破4000點;台灣貿易佔了GDP重要的一部分,國際貿易和外匯存底佔了台灣經濟重要的一部分。總體經濟為一國的國力指標,經濟要有成長才能帶動其它發展,本研究希望透過觀察與資料收集、迴歸分析,探討出探討金融海嘯事件發生後,對台灣的民生消費、股市指數、進出口產生什麼樣的改變,又當政府要使這些總體數據成長時,該透過什麼樣的手段。
本論文將1998年第一季至2013年第一季之台灣的民生消費、股價、進出口值等等的成長率當成應變數,並對每個應變數給予可能影響之自變數,以2008年發生的金融海嘯當成分界點,先檢驗變數有無共線性、顯著性、變異數不齊一、自我相關等問題,之後探討彼此之間的關係,以及探討金融海嘯對於這些應變數有無顯著影響。
實證結果發現,消費和利率及國民所得有正相關影響;大盤指數和景氣指標、本益比、股價淨值比有正相關影響;和殖利率則是負相關;進口和物價及國民所得呈正相關;和台幣兌美元匯率呈負相關;出口和台幣兌美元匯率、國外所得及景氣領先指標呈現正相關。應變數中只有消費和股市指數顯著受到金融海嘯的影響(負的影響)。
英文摘要 Financial crisis occurred in 2008 impacted Taiwan's economy. It frustrated confidence in the consumption and people became being conservative on the consumption; in the stock market, the stock prices plunged in 2008; the Taiwan stock price index dropped below 4000 point; trading has constituted a majority part of Taiwan GDP where international trade and foreign exchange reserves indeed has been positioned significantly in Taiwan economy. This Study aimed to discuss all changes made on these macroeconomic in Taiwan and in which means our government is able to improve it with changes made on these data?
In the thesis herein, Taiwan’s growth rate of consumption expenses, stock price, import and export were served as the dependent variables and among of which, important independent variables were identified; then, the financial crisis occurred in 2008 was served as the boundary to verify.
Indicated from the empirical test, consumption and interest rate and national income has positive connection; the stock price index and economic leading indicators, price-earnings ratio, price-books ratio has positive relevancy; they have negative relevancy with the yield rate; import and national income and consumer price index are in positive relevancy and negative relevancy with NT Dollar exchange rate (NTD/USD); export has positive relevancy with NT Dollar exchange rate, foreign income and economic leading indicators, where only consumption and stock price index are influenced by financial crisis significantly (negative effect).
論文目次 Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Event (the Financial Crisis) Introduction 2
1.3 Research Motivation and Purposes 3
1.4 Research Framework and Processes 4
Chapter 2 Literature Reviews and Discussion 6
2.1 Research Related to the Financial Crisis in 2008 6
2.2 Research Related to the Asian Financial Crisis 6
2.3 Research Related to the Impact of the Financial Crisis in 2008 on Consumption 7
2.4 Research about the Taiwan Stock Market and Financial Market 8
2.4.1Investors’ Assessment on the Stock Investment 10
2.4.2The Effect of Fundamental on Stock Prices 11
2.5 Research about Import and Export of Taiwan 12
2.6 Research Direction 14
Chapter 3 Research Design and Methods 16
3.1 Research Hypothesis 16
3.2 Research Method Introduction and Model Analysis Design 20
3.3 Research Variables Definition, Selection and Data Sources 21
Chapter 4 Empirical Research 29
4.1 Initial Regression Model 29
4.2 Muticolinearity Test 34
4.3 Significant Tests 37
4.4 Heteroskedasticity Test 39
4.5 Autocorrelation Test 41
4.6 Best Linear Unbiased. Estimator 42
4.7 Comparison between Expectations and Empirical Results 47
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 49
5.1 Research Results and Recommendations 49
5.2 Research Limitations 52
5.3 Research Conclusion 53
Research Reference 55
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