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系統識別號 U0026-2806201218301800
論文名稱(中文) 降雨觸發崩塌的可能性評估研究-以高屏溪流域為例
論文名稱(英文) Assessing the potential for rainfall-induced landslids: The case study of Gaoping River watershed
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生(中文) 李佳純
研究生(英文) Chia-Chuen Li
學號 n86994027
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 94頁
口試委員 指導教授-詹錢登
口試委員-羅偉誠
口試委員-陳宗顯
口試委員-賴文基
中文關鍵字 降雨與崩塌關係  地文潛勢  蒙地卡羅模擬法  不安定指數法 
英文關鍵字 relationship between rainfall and collapse  physiographic potential  the Monte Carlo Simulation  the Dangerous Value Method 
學科別分類
中文摘要 台灣地區自然災害中以崩塌災害發生所佔比例最高甚至超過半數。邊坡破壞的形成是由許多因子交互作用而成的,由紀錄可以發現除了地震所造成以外,大部分邊坡破壞是因為降雨的關係。破壞類型中常見的淺層破壞和降雨更是直接相關的,而降雨後地下水位的高低變動也連帶影響邊坡穩定,因此本研究將探討降雨與邊坡穩定性的關係。
本研究收集高屏溪流域內共35站自1996年到2009年的雨量資料,並統計水保年報和柯羅莎、米塔、卡玫基、辛樂克及莫拉克之衛星影像判釋新增崩塌地之高程、坡度、坡向及岩性因子,以研究降雨對坡地崩塌的影響,探討不同的降雨特性如降雨延時、累積雨量、降雨強度、前期雨量等對崩塌發生的影響性,選擇最能呈現降雨與崩塌關係的降雨特性模式。
結合降雨特性與地文潛勢模式進行降雨與崩塌影響的演算,在統計及演算過程中參數值或模式本身皆存在不確定性,因此本文利用@RISK軟體以量化各因子及模式本身的不確定性。本研究收集歷史新增崩塌地之地文數據,進行分佈擬合分析,給定各地文因子適用概率分析,以不安定指數法為基礎公式,分別建立地文潛勢模式G﹡和降雨崩塌潛勢模式G﹡R﹡,進行蒙地卡羅模擬法5000次演算,以機率方式顯示高屏溪流域地文潛勢值及降雨誘發崩塌潛勢值來評估邊坡穩定的風險性。最後收集2010年9月的凡那比颱風及2011年8月的南瑪都颱風進行驗證。
英文摘要 Among the natural disasters in Taiwan, the occurrence proportion of collapse hazard is the highest, which even exceeds half. The slope failure is formed by the interaction of many factors. It can be found in the record that most of the slope failure is caused by rainfall, in addition to the cause of earthquake. Shallow failure, the common type of failure, is directly relevant to the rainfall. After the rainfall, the change of underground water level also jointly influences on the slope stability. Thus, this study will discuss the relationship between the rainfall and the slope stability.
This study has collected the rainfall data of 35 stations within the Gaoping River basin from 1996 to 2009. And height, gradient slope, aspect and lithologic factors of landslides are newly increased in the statistics on annual report of soil & water conservation and the satellite image interpretation of Krosa, Mitag, Kalmaegi, Sinlaku & MbarakMorakot, to study the rainfall influences on slope collapse and also to discuss the influences of different rainfall characteristics on the occurrence of collapse, such as rainfall delay, cumulative precipitation, rainfall intensity and antecedent precipitation. By doing so, it will select a rainfall characteristics mode that can best present the relationship between rainfall and collapse.
In combination with rainfall characteristics and physiographic potential mode, the influences of rainfall and collapse can be calculated. The parameter values or model itself are uncertain in the process of statistics and calculation, so this article has applied @RISK software to quantify the uncertainties of all factors and the model itself. This study has collected physiographic data of landslides newly increased in history, to make a distribution fitting analysis, giving the probability analysis for all physiographic factors. With the Dangerous Value Method as basic formula, the physiographic potential model G﹡ and the rainfall collapse potential model G﹡R﹡are respectively established, then the Monte Carlo Simulation is calculated by 5000 times. As a result, the probability can show the physiographic potential value and the rainfall-induced collapse potential value of the Gaoping River basin, which can assess the risk of slope stability. Finally, data of the Typhoon Fanapi in September 2010 and that of the Typhoon Nanmadol in August 2011 have been collected for test and verification.
論文目次 摘要I
ABSTRACTIII
致謝V
目錄VI
表目錄IX
圖目錄X
第一章 緒論1
1.1研究動機與目的1
1.2研究區位2
1.2.1地理位置2
1.2.2地形3
1.2.3地勢4
1.2.4地質6
1.2.5流域水文7
1.3研究流程8
1.4本文架構10
第二章 前人研究11
2.1降雨與崩塌關係11
2.2降雨特性與邊坡破壞關係12
2.3地文因子與崩塌的關係15
2.4崩塌潛勢評估法16
2.4.1定性分析法16
2.4.2定量分析法16
2.4.3不確定性分析18
第三章 研究方法20
3.1降雨資料20
3.1.1降雨資料來源20
3.1.2降雨特性數據定義20
3.1.3雨場切割與雨量資料計算22
3.1.4降雨事件23
3.2崩塌資料25
3.2.1崩塌資料來源25
3.2.2影像崩塌資料判釋定義28
3.2.3坡地崩塌影響因子選取29
3.2.4地文潛勢因子數據擷取31
3.3不確定性分析39
3.4降雨崩塌警戒模式40
3.4.1不安定指數法40
3.4.2敏感度分析41
第四章 研究分析結果 42
4.1降雨特性模式42
4.1.1崩塌事件降雨資料42
4.1.2降雨特性模式分析44
4.2地文潛勢分析51
4.2.1地形因子51
4.2.2地質因子57
4.3降雨崩塌潛勢模式61
4.3.1敏感性分析61
4.3.2降雨崩塌潛勢模式62
第五章 模式驗證66
5.1降雨特性模式驗證70
5.2降雨崩塌警戒模式驗證71
第六章 結論與建議78
6.1結論78
6.2建議79
參考文獻81
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