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系統識別號 U0026-2806201015121100
論文名稱(中文) 無形資產、資訊揭露評等與股權結構對分析師預測特性之影響
論文名稱(英文) A Study of the Impact of Intangibles, Information Disclosure Rank and Ownership Structure on the Characteristic of Analysts' Forecasts
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 會計學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Accountancy
學年度 98
學期 2
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 賴詩婷
研究生(英文) Shih-Ting Lai
學號 r1697123
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 107頁
口試委員 指導教授-林玲芬
共同指導教授-陳俊男
口試委員-吳清在
口試委員-賴秀卿
中文關鍵字 無形資產  資訊揭露  股權結構  分析師預測 
英文關鍵字 intangibles  information disclosure  ownership structure  analysts’ forecasts 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究檢視無形資產、資訊揭露評等與企業股權結構對分析師預測特性之影響。由於無形資產對未來盈餘經濟效益之不確定性因素,使得投資者對於分析師預測有更多需求,增加預測的有用性。而資訊不對稱因素也導致各個分析師一般資訊和私有資訊的運用程度不一,影響預測準確性。又內部關係人持股比率和外資持股比率的高低亦影響財務報表揭露品質,這些總總因素使得個別分析師預測之間產生了差異性。本文參考Barron, Byard, Kile, Riedl and Demers (2002)模型衡量分析師預測不確定性、一致性和加總個別分析師預測利益,並以Tobin’s Q衡量無形資產,和證基會發佈的資訊揭露評等結果為資訊透明度的替代變數,及以經理人、董監事、大股東持股等內部關係人持股比率和外資持股比率,分別檢視對分析師預測特性的影響。
實證結果如下:(1)公司無形資產密集度(Tobin’s Q)愈高,分析師之間預測不確定性愈高,加總個別分析師預測利益愈大。表示無形資產密集度愈高,對未來盈餘的貢獻不確定性愈大,分析師在預測時,所面對的不確定性愈大,且隨著無形資產的增加,平均分析師預測相較於個別分析師準確度愈精準,所得到的加總個別分析師預測利益亦愈大。(2)資訊揭露評等高的公司,分析師預測的不確定性較低,一致性較高,而加總個別分析師預測利益也較小。表示資訊揭露越透明,越有助於增加分析預測的準確度,降低了分析師的預測誤差和離散度。(3)經理人、董監事、大股東持股比率與分析師預測不確定性及加總個別分析師預測利益皆呈顯著正向關係,經理人、大股東持股比率與一致性呈顯著負向關係。而外資持股比率愈高,則分析師預測不確定性愈低、一致性愈高。
英文摘要 This research examines the impact of firms’ intangibles, information disclosure rank and ownership structure on the characteristic of analysts’ forecasts. Owing to the future uncertainty economic benefit of intangibles, the uncertainty makes investor to need more the information of analysts’ forecasts, and increases the usefulness of analysts’ forecasts. Furthermore, there is an influence on individual analyst uses the extent of their common information and their own idiosyncratic knowledge and skill, because of asymmetric information. Also, the holding rate of the internal party and foreign investments will impact on the disclosure quality of financial statement and there is a considerable discrepancy on individual analysts’ forecasts. So we use Barron, Byard, Kile, Riedl and Demers (2002)model to measure the the uncertainty, consensus and aggregating benefit of the information contained in analysts’ earnings forecasts, separately using Tobin’s Q as the proxy of firms’ intangibles, regard the information disclosure rank releasing by securities and futures institute as information transparency, and the holding rate of internal party, defined as manager, board,and primary shareholder, and foreign investments to examine the influences on the characteristic of analysts’ forecasts.
The empirical results are as follow:(1)The higher degree of uncertainty exists among analysts forecasting earnings for high-intangible firms than low-intangible firms. And the aggregating benefit of analysts’ forecast is greater for high-intangible firm than for low-intangible firm. (2)The higher information-disclosure-rank firms have higher consensuses, lower uncertainty and smaller aggregating benefit of analysts’ forecast than lower information-disclosure-rank firms. (3)The holding rate of manager, board, and primary shareholder has a remarkable positive correlation with the uncertainty and the aggregating benefit of analysts’ forecast. And the holding rate of manager and primary shareholder has a remarkable positive correlation with consensuses. Then, the higher of the foreign investments, there will be the lower uncertainty but higher consensuses.
論文目次 第一章 緒論...............................................1
第一節 研究背景與動機.......................................1
第二節 研究目的............................................4
第三節 論文貢獻............................................6
第四節 研究流程與論文架構...................................7
第二章 文獻回顧............................................9
第一節 無形資產之文獻探討...................................9
第二節 分析師預測相關文獻...................................19
第三節 資訊揭露品質之相關文獻...............................23
第四節 股權結構之相關文獻..................................30
第三章 研究設計...........................................38
第一節 研究假說...........................................38
第二節 變數定義與實證模型..................................43
第三節 資料來源與樣本選取..................................57
第四章 實證結果與分析......................................59
第一節 無形資產與分析師預測特性之實果........................59
第二節 資訊揭露評等與分析師預測特性之實證結果.................69
第三節 股權結構與分析師預測特性之實證結果.....................77
第四節 敏感性測試 .........................................89
第五章 結論與建議.........................................94
第一節 研究結論...........................................94
第二節 研究限制及建議......................................97
參考文獻..................................................98


表 目 錄
表2-1 資訊揭露評鑑系統各年度評鑑指標變動表....................29
表3-1 實證樣本篩選過程......................................57
表3-2 資訊揭露評等篩選前後樣本數.............................58
表4-1 模型1之各變數的敘述統計量..............................61
表4-2 模型1各變數之Spearman相關係數矩陣......................64
表4-3 無形資產與分析師預測特性之多元迴歸分析...................68
表4-4 模型2之各變數的敘述統計量..............................70
表4-5 模型2各變數之Spearman相關係數矩陣......................72
表4-6 資訊揭露評等與分析師預測特性之多元迴歸分析...............75
表4-7 模型3各變數之敘述統計量...............................78
表4-8 模型3各變數之Spearman相關係數矩陣......................81
表4-9 股權結構與分析師預測特性之多元迴歸分析..................86
表4-10 研發費用、資產負債表上無形資產對分析師預測特性之多元迴歸分析.................................92

圖 目 錄
圖1-1研究流程圖.................................7
圖3-1本研究之研究構面關係架構圖..................51
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