進階搜尋


下載電子全文  
系統識別號 U0026-2704202020180900
論文名稱(中文) 分析師是否了解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的意涵
論文名稱(英文) Do Analysts Fully Appreciate the Implications of Customer Concentration for Future Earnings?
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Finance (on the job class)
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 陳靜華
研究生(英文) Ching-Hua Chen
學號 R87071354
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 21頁
口試委員 口試委員-黃華瑋
口試委員-謝喻婷
指導教授-周庭楷
中文關鍵字 顧客集中度  分析師盈餘預測  分析師預測偏誤 
英文關鍵字 customer concentration  analyst earnings forecast  analyst forecast bias 
學科別分類
中文摘要 顧客集中度為公司未來績效的正向領先指標,本研究探討分析師是否能夠充分了解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的意涵,並反映在其發佈盈餘預測中。顧客集中度是複雜高的非財務性領先指標,加上其對公司營運與獲利的影響會隨著公司處於初期階段還是處於成熟階段而有所不同,而預測的資訊複雜度愈高,會造成分析師無法作出精準的財務預測,因此本文預期分析師無法充分理解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的意涵。實證結果表明,顧客集中度的變化與分析師的預測偏誤呈正相關,表示分析師無法充分理解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的意涵。
英文摘要 Customer concentration is a positive leading indicator of the company's future performance. This study explores whether analysts can fully understand the meaning of customer concentration on future earnings and reflect it in their earnings forecast. Customer concentration is a non-financial leading indicator with high complexity, and its impact on the company's operation and profit will vary with whether the company is in the initial stage or in the mature stage. The more complex the forecast information is, the analysts will not be able to make accurate financial forecasts. Therefore, this paper expects that analysts cannot fully understand the implication of customer concentration on future earnings. The empirical results show that there is a positive correlation between the change of customer concentration and analysts' prediction bias, which means that analysts can not fully understand the meaning of customer concentration on future earnings.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 研究背景與假說發展 3
第三章 研究設計 6
第一節 樣本及資料來源 6
第二節 顧客集中度衡量 6
第三節 實證模型 7
第四章 實證結果分析 9
第一節 敘述性統計量 9
第二節 相關係數分析 11
第三節 迴歸係數分析 14
第五章 結論 17
參考文獻 18

參考文獻 參考文獻
Abarbanell, J. and V. Bernard. 1992. Tests of Analysts’ Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior. Journal of Finance 47: 1187–1207.
Amir, E., B. Lev, and T. Sougiannis. 2003. Do Financial Analysts Get Intangibles? European Accounting Review 12: 635–659.
Anderson, M., R. Banker, and S. Janakiraman. 2003. Are Selling, General and Administrative Costs “Sticky?” Journal of Accounting Research 41: 47-63.
Baik, B., Y. J. Kim, and Y. Roh. 2015. Do Analysts Account for Revisions in Loss Reserves of Property-Casualty Insurers? Working Paper, Seoul National University.
Banker, R., G. Potter, and D. Srinivasan. 2000. An Empirical Investigation of an Incentive Plan That Includes Nonfinancial Performance Measures. Accounting Review 75: 65–92.
Barron, O. E., D. Byard, C. Kile, and E. J. Riedl. 2002. High-Technology Intangibles and Analysts’ Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 289-312.
Barth, M. E. and A. P. Hutton. 2004. Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals. Review of Accounting Studies 9: 59-96.
Bradshaw, M. T., S. A. Richardson, and R. G. Sloan. 2001. Do Analysts and Auditors use information in accruals? Journal of Accounting Research 39: 45-74.
Brown, L. D. 1997. Analyst Forecasting Errors: Additional Evidence. Financial Analys Journal 53: 81-88.
Brown, L. 2001. A Temporal Analysis of Earnings Surprises: Profits Versus Losses. Journal of Accounting Research 39: 221–242.
Cowley, P. R. 1988. Market structure and business performance: An evaluation of buyer/seller power in the PIMS database. Strategic Management Journal 9: 271–278.
Duru, A. and D. M. Reeb. 2002. International Diversification and Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy and Bias. The Accounting Review 77: 415-433.
Elgers, P. and H. Lo. 1994. Reductions in Analysts’ Annual Earnings Forecast Errors Using Information in Prior Earnings and Security Returns. Journal of Accounting Research 32: 290–303.
Fairfield, P. and T. Yohn. 2001. Using asset turnover and profit margin to forecast changes in profitability. Review of Accounting Studies 6: 371-385.
Galbraith, J. K. 1952. American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
Graham, B. and D. Dodd. 2008. Security Analysis, 6th, New York: McGraw Hill.
Granger, C. W. J. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37: 424-428.
Gu, F. (2005). Innovation, future earnings, and market efficiency. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 20: 385-418.
Gu, F. and W. Wang. 2005. Intangible Assets, Information Complexity, and Analysts’Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 32: 1673-1702.
Healy, P. and K. Palepu. 2001. Information Asymmetry, Corporate Disclosure, and the Capital Markets: A Review of the Voluntary Disclosure Literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31: 405‐440.
Hertzel, M. G., Z. Li, M. Officer, and K. Rodgers. 2008. Inter-firm linkages and the wealth effects of financial distress along the supply chain. Journal of Financial Economics 87: 374-387.
Hwang, L., C. Jan, and S. Basu. 1996. Loss Firms and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Errors. Journal of Financial Statement Analysis 1: 18–30.
Irvine, P. J., S. S. Park, and C. Yildizhan. 2015. Customer-base concentration, profitability, and the relationship life cycle. The Accounting Review 91: 883-906.
Ittner, C. and D. Larcker. 1998. Innovations in Performance Measurement: Trends and Research Implications. Journal of Management Accounting Research 10: 205–238.
Jackson, B. 1985. Winning and Keeping Industrial Customers: The Dynamics of Customer Relationships. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
Jap, S. and E. Anderson. 2007. Testing a life-cycle theory of cooperative interorganizational relationships: Movement across stages and performance. Management Science 53: 260-275.
Kalwani, M. U. and N. Narayandas. 1995. Long-term manufacturer-supplier relationships: Do they pay off for supplier firms? Journal of Marketing 59: 1–16.
Kelly, T. and M. Gosman. 2000. Increased buyer concentration and its effects on profitability in the manufacturing sector. Review of Industrial Organization 17: 41-59.
Kinney, M. R. and W. F. Wempe. 2002. Further evidence on the extent and origins of JIT’s profitability effects. The Accounting Review 77: 203–225.
Kolay, M., M. Lemmon, and E. Tashjian. 2015. Distress-related spillover effects in the supply chain: Information revelation or real economic cost? Working Paper, University of Utah.
Kross, W., B. Ro, and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings expectations: The analysts’information advantage. The Accounting Review 65: 461-476.
Kumar, N. 1996. The power of trust in manufacturer-retailer relationships. Harvard Business Review 74: 92–106.
Lang, M. H. and R. J. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71: 467-492.
Patatoukas, P. N. 2012. Customer-base concentration: Implications for firm performance and capital markets. The Accounting Review 87: 363-392.
Plumlee, M. A. 2003. The Effect of Information Complexity on Analysts’ Use of that Information. The Accounting Review 78: 275‐296.
Porter, M. E. 1974. Consumer behavior, retailer power and market performance in consumer goods industries. Review of Economics and Statistics 56: 419–436.
Scherer, F. M. 1970. Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance. Chicago, IL: Rand McNally.
Schipper, K. 1991. Analysts’ Forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5: 105-121.
Soliman, M. T. 2008. The use of DuPont analysis by market participants. The Accounting Review 83: 823-854.
Williamson, O. 1979. Transaction-cost economics: The governance of contractual relations. Journal of Law and Economics 22: 233-261.

論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2020-05-01起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2020-05-01起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw