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系統識別號 U0026-2701201610303000
論文名稱(中文) 以人力資本研究台灣高齡化社會年金改革之經濟影響
論文名稱(英文) Macroeconomic Impact of Pension Reform on Aging Economy with Endogenous Human Capital: the Case of Taiwan
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 104
學期 1
出版年 105
研究生(中文) 李士瑋
研究生(英文) Shin-Wei, Lee.
學號 U56021133
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 53頁
口試委員 口試委員-胡政成
口試委員-李世榮
指導教授-許永河
中文關鍵字 高齡化  年金改革  人力資本 
英文關鍵字 Overlapping Generation Model  Population Aging  Pension Reform Human capital 
學科別分類
中文摘要 由於人口出生率快速的下降以及國人平均壽命的延長,台灣於1993年進入高齡化社會時代。本研究先以多期疊代模型分析封閉體系下人力資本的考量是否對台灣經濟有所衝擊,其次在考量人力資本下透過不同高齡化社會年金制度探討對經濟效果的影響程度。研究結果顯示,高齡化人口結構將造成經濟體勞動要素的減少,在勞動要素下降的同時並對本國經濟成長帶來不利的影響。除此之外,工作人口比例的下降,年金制度的供需失衡將導致政府的財政赤字與社會資本量的下降。關心政府在未來年金制度因應高齡化社會之永續發展,本研究探討數種改善年金制度之方案。研究結果顯示,延長退休年齡、提高年金提撥率、降低所得替代率與人力資本提升等均有助於改善政府財政支出,但提高年金提撥率將減少勞動供給的誘因並對GNP有不利影響。因此,本研究建議政府可以延長3年法定退休年齡、降低年金所得替代率2% 與改善本國人力資本素質做為未來面臨社會高齡化問題之解決方法。
英文摘要 This paper analyzes the effects of pension reform on aging economy of Taiwan, using a multi-period overlapping generation (OLG) model with endogenous human capital investment of the households to investigate the performance of GNP, labor supply, government deficit, interest rate and wage in recent years.
Concerning the sustainability of the fiscal and pension system in the aging economy of Taiwan, this paper proposes several policy reforms to meet the challenges arising from population aging. Population aging leads to a shrinking working-age labor supply. It is expected that human capital formation may compensate for part of the adverse effect of population aging on the quantity of labor supply. Incorporated with life-cycle human capital investment of the household sector, this paper conducts several policy reforms to investigate their effects on financial sustainability of aging economy.
Research results of this thesis conclude that postponing mandatory retirement age, raising pension contribution, and lowering the replacement ratio can improve financial stances of both fiscal and pension systems. In addition, economy with endogenous human capital investment has better effect in improving government financial stances than an economy without it.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論-1
第一節 研究背景與動機-1
第二節 研究目的-5
第二章 文獻回顧-7
第一節 人口高齡化與總體之研究相關文獻-8
第二節 人力資本對人口結構影響之研究相關文獻-12
第三章 模型架構-15
第一節 人口-16
第二節 家計單位-16
第三節 人力資本-19
第四節 廠商-21
第五節 社會保障體系-22
第六節 政府-23
第七節 均衡條件-25
第四章 模型校準與模擬-26
第一節 資料與參數設定-26
第二節 模擬分析-28
第五章 研究結果與討論-41
參考文獻-44
附錄-生命週期人力資本投資-50
第一節 人力資本投資模型-50
第二節 人力資本投資決策-51
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中文部分
1.江豐富. (2008). 從勞動所得估計臺灣的人力資本生產與投資. 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 38(2), 111-140.
2.田弘華, 田芳華, & 劉亦修. (2008). 高等教育數量開放政策對大學畢業生收入的影響: 傳訊理論之調適與應用.
網路資料
1.The 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects: Old-Age Dependency Ratio (Age 65+ / Age 25-64)
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
2.內政部統計年報:人口年齡分配圖
http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/year/list.htm
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