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系統識別號 U0026-2701201514592000
論文名稱(中文) 以分位數迴歸及集群分析探討台灣地區時間與空間乾旱趨勢變化
論文名稱(英文) Exploring temporal and spatial trends of droughts in Taiwan using quantile regression and cluster analysis
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 103
學期 1
出版年 104
研究生(中文) 林佳薇
研究生(英文) Jia-Wei Lin
學號 N86024092
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 86頁
口試委員 口試委員-張麗秋
口試委員-孫建平
指導教授-蕭政宗
中文關鍵字 乾旱趨勢  標準化降雨指數  分位數迴歸  集群分析 
英文關鍵字 Drought  Trend analysis  Quantile regression  Cluster analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 台灣地區近年來降雨量與降雨時期極不穩定,對許多地區造成嚴重的破壞。許多文獻均指出受氣候變遷的影響,極端氣候發生的強度及頻率有增加的趨勢。乾旱對於經濟、社會與環境的影響是全面性,了解乾旱特性及乾旱趨勢變化對於水資源規劃及管理是一項極重要的工作。因此本文研究目的在於探討台灣地區時間與空間乾旱趨勢變化,本文選用台灣地區北、中、南、東四區域12個雨量站,1947至2012共66年的月雨量資料,分別使用標準化降雨指數(standardized precipitation index, SPI) 定義乾旱,以分位數迴歸(quantile regression)探討不同分位數SPI、乾旱延時、乾旱量、乾旱頻率系列的時間變化趨勢,並以集群分析(cluster analysis)探討各測站乾旱趨勢的空間關聯性。分析結果顯示台北、台中、日月潭、高雄等四站SPI系列具有正斜率,代表乾旱延時與乾旱量有下降的趨勢,且大都位於台灣西側;台灣東南沿海一帶的測站包括恆春、大武、台東、成功等四站,SPI系列多為負斜率,顯示乾旱延時與乾旱量具增加的趨勢;而其他四測站較無顯著趨勢變化,散佈在台灣各區域。另乾旱頻率的增加未必與其他乾旱特性的增加一致,例如台東與大武同屬乾旱特性增加的測站,但大武站之乾旱頻率增加,而台東站之乾旱頻率降低。
英文摘要 Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic feature and occurs in all climatic zones. Imbalanced water availability induced by droughts has far-reaching and adverse impacts to both human lives and natural environments. This study aims to summarize temporal and spatial drought variations in Taiwan by combining quantile regression and cluster analysis. Three-monthly rainfall series covering the period 1947-2012 for 12 rainfall stations are used for trends analysis of droughts in this study. The results show that the stations along east coast is prone to more severity due to declined slopes in 3-month SPI series associated with increasing trends in drought-duration and drought-severity series. Positive-slope in SPI series associated with declined trends in drought-duration and drought-severity series are noted at station located at the west and lead to less severe droughts. In addition, a distinct behavior is found in drought frequency since severe droughts may not accompany frequent droughts.
論文目次 目錄
摘要 I
Extended Abstract II
目錄 X
表目錄 XII
圖目錄 XIII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機………………………………………………………………… 1
1-2 研究目的 ………………………………………………………………2
1-3 文獻回顧 ………………………………………………………………3
1-4 論文架構 ………………………………………………………………8
第二章 研究方法 9
2-1 標準化降雨指數…………………………………………………………9
2-2 分位數迴歸 ……………………………………………………………..13
2-3 集群分析 ……………………………………………………………..15
第三章 研究區域與使用資料 18
3-1 測站概述 ……………………………………………………………..18
3-2 雨量資料概述 ………………………………………………………..18
3-3 乾旱資料概述 ………………………………………………………..23
第四章 結果與討論 29
4-1 SPI趨勢分析與集群分析 …………………………………………29
4-2 乾季與濕季趨勢分析 ………………………………………………33
4-3 乾旱延時趨勢分析與集群分析 …………………………………….38
4-4 乾旱量趨勢分析與集群分析 …………………………………………41
4-5 乾旱頻率趨勢分析與集群分析 …………………………………….44
4-6 討論 ………………………………………………………………….47
第五章 結論與建議 50
5-1 結論 ………………………………………………………………….50
5-2 建議 ………………………………………………………………….51
參考文獻 52
附錄A SPI系列之線性分位數迴歸圖 57
附錄B SPI乾季系列之線性分位數迴歸圖 61
附錄C SPI溼季系列之線性分位數迴歸圖 65
附錄D 乾旱延時系列之線性分位數迴歸圖 69
附錄E 乾旱量系列之線性分位數迴歸圖 75
附錄F 乾旱頻率系列之線性分位數迴歸圖 81
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