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系統識別號 U0026-2608201915124300
論文名稱(中文) 應用乾旱嚴重-延時-頻率曲線評估氣候變遷下農業經濟衝擊
論文名稱(英文) Assessment of agricultural economic impacts under climate change through drought Severity- Duration - Frequency curves
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生(中文) 阮氏邵
研究生(英文) NGUYEN THI PHUONG THAO
學號 N86067016
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 118頁
口試委員 指導教授-游保杉
口試委員-陳憲宗
口試委員-楊道昌
口試委員-曾宏偉
中文關鍵字 None 
英文關鍵字 Threshold level  Severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves  AR4  GCMs  climate change  agriculture. 
學科別分類
中文摘要 None
英文摘要 A drought is a natural disaster of not receiving rain or snow over a period of time, resulting in prolonged shortages in the water supply, whether atmospheric, surface water or groundwater. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the predicted severity, duration of drought is important for the development of strategies in the water resources management. This study aims to develop a streamflow drought severity – duration- frequency (SDF) curves to estimate the long-term financial impact due to lack of certainties in climate change and agriculture projections. Severity was identified as the total water deficit volume to target threshold for a given drought duration. Furthermore, this study compared the SDF curves of two threshold level methods: fixed and monthly as well as evaluate the impacts of climate change on the SDF curves for the fixed threshold level. The scenarios climate is focused on AR4 (A2, AB1, B2) from the general climate model. Time series of the annual maxima values of duration and volume deficit indicated a similar trend of increasing and decreasing in different threshold level. The fixed threshold level is the 70th percentile value (Q70) of the flow duration curves (FDC) which is compiled using all available daily streamflow. The monthly threshold level in this study is the monthly varying Q70 values that was obtained from antecedent 12 months streamflow. SDF curves were prepared and fitting statistical distribution to each one.
The approach continues with the impacts of climate change on the SDF curves for the fixed threshold level. Likewise, the methodology defines a water tariff price delimited by the drought duration and calculate the revenue loss scenarios in agriculture. As a case study, the approach is applied to the Kaoping River in Taiwan, the main water supply source for agriculture, industry but this study concentrates on the profit loss in agriculture. The results show that the SDF curves from the fixed threshold level increase value of the volume deficit than the monthly threshold level in each period. Drought deficit volume increasing rate was different in each class of duration–interval. Similarly, the SDF curves were varied under climate change, the duration and severities from GFDL_CM2_1 GCMs of each scenario is higher than baseline and increasing of duration resulted to the increased value of the volume deficit with a non–linear trend. Additionally, the severity-duration-frequency- profit loss under the historical data is resulted to estimate the baseline scenario of damage cost in the water utility company. In addition, the anticipated profit loss the long term would serve as the initial estimate for financial contingency plan or community contingency funds. In general, the development of SDF curves can be proposed as a planning tool to mitigating and real-time management of drought effects in water resource management.
論文目次 ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III
TABLE OF CONTENTS V
LIST OF TABLE X
LIST OF FIGURES XII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Research Questions 2
1.3. The aims of study 3
1.4 Outline of the Thesis 3
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 5
2.1. Introduction 5
2.2. Historical drought in Taiwan 8
2.3. Threshold level method 10
2.2.1. The inter-event time method (IT-method) 14
2.2.2 Moving-average procedure (MA-procedure) 14
2.2.3. The sequent peak algorithm (SPA) 15
2.4. Frequency analysis 16
2.5. Climate Change scenarios 18
2.6. Summary 19
CHAPTER THREE STUDY AREA AND DEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT SEVERITY – DURATION – FREQUENCY (SDF) CURVES 20
3.1. Description of study area 20
3.1.1. Study area 20
3.1.2. Data collection 22
3.2. Frequency analysis 23
3.2.1. The threshold level and drought characteristics 23
3.2.2 Calculations of the streamflow drought severity and duration 25
3.2.3 Determination of the Probability Distribution Functions 29
3.3. Development of SDF curves 31
3.4. Summary 33
CHAPTER FOUR THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SDF CURVE 34
4.1. The climate change scenarios 34
4.2. The threshold level method 36
4.3. Identifying of SDF curves 37
4.3.1. Calculating water deficit for time resolution 38
4.3.2. Determine of probability distribution function 40
4.3.3. Development of streamflow drought SDFs curves 41
4.4. Summary 45
CHAPTER FIVE AGRICULTURE IMPACTS OF DROUGHT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE 46
5.1 Introduction 46
5.2. Water price and hydrological drought relationship 47
5.3. Severity – Duration – frequency – profit loss under climate change 49
5.3.1 SDF curves 50
5.3.2. Development of Severity-duration-frequency-economic loss curves 54
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 58
6.1. Conclusions 58
6.2. Recommendation 59
REFERENCE 61
APPENDICES 66
Appendix 1: Annual maximum deficit and duration for two threshold level 66
Appendix 2: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of fixed threshold level 68
Appendix 3: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level 69
Appendix 4: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - CSIRO_MK_5 projection – A1B scenario 71
Appendix 5: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - GFDL_CM2_1 projection – A1B scenario 73
Appendix 6: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MICRO 3_2 projection – A1B scenario 74
Appendix 7: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MPI_ECHAM 5 projection – A1B scenario 76
Appendix 8: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MRI_CGCM2_3_2A projection – A1B scenario 77
Appendix 9: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - CSIRO_MK_5 projection – A2 scenario 79
Appendix 10: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - GFDL_CM2_1 projection – A2 scenario 80
Appendix 11: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MICRO 3_2 projection – A2 scenario 82
Appendix 12: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MPI_ECHAM 5 projection – A2 scenario 84
Appendix 13: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MRI_CGCM2_3_2A projection – A2 scenario 85
Appendix 14: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - CSIRO_MK_5 projection – B1 scenario 87
Appendix 15: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - GFDL_CM2_1 projection – B1 scenario 88
Appendix 16: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MICRO 3_2 projection – B1 scenario 90
Appendix 17: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MPI_ECHAM 5 projection – B1 scenario 92
Appendix 18: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level - MRI_CGCM2_3_2A projection – B1 scenario 93
Appendix 19: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - CSIRO_MK_5 projection – A1B scenario 95
Appendix 20: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - GFDL_CM2_1 projection – A1B scenario 96
Appendix 21: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MICRO 3_2 projection – A1B scenario 98
Appendix 22: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MPI_ECHAM 5 projection – A1B scenario 99
Appendix 23: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MRI_CGCM2_3_2A projection – A1B scenario 101
Appendix 24: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - CSIRO_MK_5 projection – A2 103
Appendix 25: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - GFDL_CM2_1 projection – A2 scenario 104
Appendix 26: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MICRO 3_2 projection – A2 scenario 106
Appendix 27: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MPI_ECHAM 5 projection – A2 scenario 107
Appendix 28: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MRI_CGCM2_3_2A projection – A2 scenario 109
Appendix 29: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - CSIRO_MK_5 projection – B1 scenario 111
Appendix 30: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use)- GFDL_CM2_1 projection – B1 scenario 112
Appendix 31: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use)- MICRO 3_2 projection – B1 scenario 114
Appendix 32: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MPI_ECHAM 5 projection – B1 scenario 115
Appendix 33: Maximum deficit volume (million m3/s) for different duration of monthly threshold level (agriculture use) - MRI_CGCM2_3_2A projection – B1 scenario 117
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