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系統識別號 U0026-2508202022203100
論文名稱(中文) 應用輻射模型探討臺灣地區人口空間分布與變遷之研究
論文名稱(英文) A Study on Spatial Distribution and Changes of Taiwan's Population by a Radiation Model
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 都市計劃學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Urban Planning
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 宋旻駿
研究生(英文) Min-Chun Sung
學號 p26031111
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 74頁
口試委員 口試委員-林楨家
口試委員-陳彥仲
口試委員-李子璋
指導教授-石豐宇
中文關鍵字 人口遷移  輻射模型  重力模型 
英文關鍵字 Population Migration  Radiation Model  Gravity Model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 在都市與區域政策中,人口遷移係為一重要的考量要素,目前在人口遷移預測模型中,重力模型為較廣泛使用之方法,並且有許多研究對重力模型進行改善,而其成果也相當豐碩,然重力模型仍存有其使用上之限制,而近年有一應用於預測兩地區間流動之通用模型被提出,稱之為輻射模型(Radiation Model),並期望能提供做為預測流動之新方法。
本研究嘗試將輻射模型應用至臺灣地區人口遷移預測,並以兩種尺度資料進行操作,分別為大尺度長距離的跨縣市人口遷移,及小尺度短距離的區域內人口遷移,除了使用不同尺度,本研究欲探討模型在有無歷史資料作為校估基礎時,對於模型的預測能力使否有差異,而在預測人口遷移模型選用輻射模型(Radiation Model)及重力模型(Gravity Model)。
以本研究所蒐集之臺灣地區各縣市與直轄市間人口遷移資料進行實證分析,由實證結果可知,在不同檢定方法下,輻射模型預測能力不一定高於重力模型,但加入歷史資料可大幅改善輻射模型及重力模型預測能力,其原因可能受限於政府開放資料限制,僅操作13縣市與6直轄市之間及以臺南市部分行政區為實證範圍,後續如可取得各縣市間或全臺各行政區間人口遷移數據,可更完整檢視輻射模型在臺灣地區適用性,且使用大數據進行分析如以手機訊號位置取代傳統戶籍位置,可更真實反映人口流動的情況,且可解決以往研究樣本過少之問題。
英文摘要 In urban and regional policy (making), human movement is one of the key factors to consider. Gravity Model is the most used approach to predict mobility patterns of people. (Over the past few decades,) The model has been improved by previous studies and has achieved a major accomplishment in population movement prediction. However, Gravity Model still has its limitations. Radiation Model which is applied to predict mobility fluxes between two regions has been developed in recent years and has been expected to become a new approach to sketch out the human migration patterns.
This study has two main objectives. The first is to apply the Radiation Model to predict human migration in Taiwan under two different spatial scales. The analysis under large spatial scale predicts the migration across cities and counties, and the study with smaller scale demonstrates the patterns of movement with short distance in a region. The second is to investigate whether the calibration based on historical data affects the ability of prediction of two human movement models. The comparison between Radiation Model and Gravity Model has been made in the study.
Population migration statistics between cities, counties and municipalities in Taiwan has been used to conduct the empirical analysis. Result shows that the prediction of Radiation Model is not always better than Gravity Model under different statistical verifications. On the other hand, the calibration of historical data can drastically improve the outcomes of both models. The reason could be the limitation of the data. The data coverage is limited to 13 counties and cities and 6 municipalities and parts of districts in Tainan City. A more detailed data covers the migration statistics between all administrative areas in Taiwan would be useful to thoroughly examine the feasibility of applying Radiation Model in Taiwan. Also, big data such as mobile probes can provide more precise data on population fluxes and can solve small sample size problem in previous study.
論文目次 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍 5
第三節 研究限制與假說 10
第四節 研究內容流程 12
第貳章 文獻回顧 14
第一節 人口遷移理論 14
第二節 人口遷移之相關研究 17
第三節 人口遷移模型之介紹 20
第四節 重力模型之應用 23
第五節 輻射模型之應用 26
第四節 小結 30
第參章 研究設計 32
第一節 研究架構 32
第二節 模型建構 33
第三節 資料選擇與說明 35
第四節 檢定方法 42
第肆章 實證分析與結果 45
第一節 模型參數 45
第二節 無母數統計檢定結果 47
第三節 皮爾森相關性分析檢定結果 49
第四節 SSI相似度檢定結果 51
第伍章 結論與建議 52
第一節 結論 52
第二節 建議 54
參考文獻 55
附錄1 輻射模型推導過程 60
附錄2 縣市層級間直線距離 62
附錄3 行政區層級之間直線距離 63
附錄4 縣市層級間輻射模型k平均值 65
附錄5 鄉鎮市區層級間輻射模型k平均值 68
附錄6 縣市層級間重力模型k平均值 70
附錄7 鄉鎮市區層級間重力模型k平均值 73
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