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系統識別號 U0026-2507201309492500
論文名稱(中文) 以統計模式解析集集地震對後續降雨觸發崩塌之長期影響
論文名稱(英文) A Statistical Model for the Impact of the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake on the Subsequent Rainfall-induced Landslides
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 地球科學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Earth Sciences
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 劉守恆
研究生(英文) Shou-Heng Liu
學號 L48941046
學位類別 博士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 87頁
口試委員 指導教授-林慶偉
口試委員-詹錢登
口試委員-謝正倫
口試委員-林美聆
口試委員-陳天健
口試委員-曾志民
中文關鍵字 集集地震  崩塌  日雨量  基因演算法 
英文關鍵字 Chi-Chi earthquake  landslide  daily precipitation  genetic algorithm 
學科別分類
中文摘要 崩塌是山區主要的自然災害類型之一,伴隨崩塌發生往往引致當地居民生命財產的損失以及環境生態的破壞。本研究以統計模型來量化解析集集地震對於後續降雨觸發崩塌的時序影響,發現地震效應的時間變化應呈冪次函數遞減。最佳化的模型參數顯示前期降雨對於新生崩塌發育的影響在時序上約有一天左右的延遲時間。研究區內由集集地震直接引發的新生崩塌密度估計為千分之4.97,是短期之內的主要崩塌控制因子。除了地震與降雨因子之外,仍有其他的營力作用引致新生崩塌發生,根據模型的定量推估其平均的每日發生速度約為千分之0.004。研究顯示前期降雨對於新生崩塌的變化有很大的影響力,然而降雨與崩塌發育之間確實的交互機制仍不明確。
以時序衰減模式估算地震影響因子的結果顯示其影響半衰期約為578天(1.58年);在集集地震發生後地震對於新增崩塌密度發育的影響因子約為前期雨量影響的6到8倍,持續至2004到2005年之間才減弱至與雨量相同的量級,自此以後則以降雨條件為觸發崩塌發生的主要控制因素。
根據模型推估的結果,顯示近期的重大山崩與降雨皆對崩塌發育有顯著的影響,因此在訂立區域崩塌觸發門檻條件或是進行相關模型推估計算的時候,最好能夠將這些變因納入考量。未來研究可嘗試使用較高空間解析度的雨量資料來幫助釐清降雨觸發山崩的明確條件關係;此外若是想要在時序上進行更詳盡的計算,用於參數推估的演算法需要調整改進或是利用硬體設備進行強化以縮短計算過程所需要的時間。
英文摘要 A statistical model is proposed for the temporal influence of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake on the subsequent rainfall-induced new landslides in the Jhuoshuei River Watershed of Central Taiwan. Based on the landslide inventory via satellite image classifications and daily precipitation records from 1996 to 2008, the parameters of the model functions were obtained by genetic algorithm. The proposed model gives estimation from daily precipitation with an average error of 13.91% of new landslide density to the variation analysis result from landslide inventory over 15 image dates. The results of the model estimation reveal a continuously decaying pattern of earthquake influence on the subsequent rainfall-induced new landslides, an average daily 0.004‰ background new-landslide density, and a 4.97‰ new-landslide density caused by the earthquake directly within the study area. Also, the estimations of the models suggest that there are influences and latency of antecedent rainfall among the occurrence of new landslides.
Estimations from time-decay earthquake-impact-factor models show consistent results on the decay constant of 0.0012, which is equivalent to a 578-day (1.58-year) half-life for the influence of an earthquake. Model validations show more representative estimations on short-term (i.e., days) precipitation records and decreasing function for the impact factor of antecedent rainfall. However, constant-impact model of antecedent rainfall is recommended if there is no sufficient observations.
論文目次 摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III
TABLE OF CONTENTS IV
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Landslides 1
1.2 Geologic Background of Jhuoshuei River Watershed. 2
1.3 The Chi-Chi earthquake 4
1.4 Thesis Overview 4
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 6
2.1 Landslide Triggers. 6
2.2 Rainfall impact to Landslides. 8
2.3 Earthquake influences to Landslides. 12
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 17
3.1 Landslide Inventory. 18
3.1.1 Data source (image) 19
3.1.2 Semi-auto classification 20
3.1.3 Quality control and validation 22
3.1.4 Variation analysis of landslides 24
3.2 Precipitation record. 26
3.3 Zonal analysis. 30
3.4 Statistical model of new landslide occurrence. 32
3.4.1 Landslide and rainfall 32
3.4.2 Impact of earthquake 33
3.4.3 Antecedent rainfall 34
3.4.4 Model assumption 34
3.4.5 Proposed model 34
3.5 Genetic Algorithm. 35
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 40
4.1 Zonal analysis results. 40
4.1.1 Variations in landslide density 40
4.1.2 Variation in the position of landslides on a hill slope 47
4.1.3 Landslide density with respect to the ground motion 49
4.1.4 Summary of zonal analysis 51
4.2 Model Estimation. 52
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 59
CHAPTER SIX REVISION OF THE PROPOSED MODEL 60
6.1 Using of the incremental landslide density 60
6.2 Renewed sample area of precipitation records 61
6.3 Various modifications of model functions 63
6.3.1 Constant-impact model 63
6.3.2 Energy decay form for the earthquake-impact function 64
6.3.3 Decreasing impact factor form of antecedent rainfall 68
6.3.4 Residue model of the impact factor of earthquake 71
6.4 Model applicability 75
6.5 Conclusions of model revision 77
REFERENCES 78
APPENDICES 87
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