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系統識別號 U0026-2501201115202600
論文名稱(中文) The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Local Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Taipei County
論文名稱(英文) The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Local Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Taipei County
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class)
學年度 99
學期 1
出版年 100
研究生(中文) 吳秋慧
研究生(英文) Chiu-Hui Wu
學號 ra796119
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 73頁
口試委員 指導教授-劉淑鶯
口試委員-廖培安
口試委員-王義特
中文關鍵字 人口結構  經濟成長  人口老化  多元迴歸 
英文關鍵字 Demographic Transition  Economic Growth  Aging  Multiple-Linear Regression 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文採用1979年至2008年,共30年的縱橫資料(panel data),運用多元迴歸-普通最小平方法探討新北市人口結構轉變對經濟成長的影響,以人均所得成長率作為因變數,自變數的選取上,輔以逐步迴歸法選取適當的自變數建立實證模型,主要著重在老年人口成長率、教育支出和儲蓄成長率與人均所得成長率之間的關係。此外,由於新北市於去年升格為直轄市,本文以相同方式進行臺灣二直轄市(臺北市及高雄市)的分析,作為對新北市提出因應人口結構轉變的具體政策建議時的參考。
本文實證結果得知,人口結構轉變確實對新北市地方經濟成長造成影響,老年人口成長率對經濟成長具有顯著正向影響力的原因可能來自於老年人口延後退休年齡,持續創造產能、為了因應老年時期的支出而增加儲蓄以及因應人口老化趨勢的相關照護產業逐漸興起所致。而教育支出可提升勞動者之知識技能,改善生產效率,進而促進經濟成長。再者,儲蓄會使資本產生累積的效果並進而刺激消費以維持經濟成長。
英文摘要 This research undertakes a study of the demographic transition in New Taipei City, and the effects of the demographic transition, especially the old age population growth, education expenditure and saving growth, on economic growth by using the ordinary least squares multiple linear regression method. The research period is from 1979 to 2008. The study further takes the data of Taipei City and Kaohsiung City into account as a reference when making suggestions since New Taipei City was promoted to a special municipality last year (Taipei and Kaohsiung cities were promoted to special municipalities in 1967 and 1979, respectively).
The empirical results illustrate that the growth rate of old age population, education expenditure and saving growth rate are positively related to economic growth. And the reasons this study inferred are as follows: The old age population would postpone their retirement and increase savings for paying more consumption in the old age. The prosperity of housing and caring service for the healthy and independent senior can bring economic growth as well. Training and education enhance the worker’s working skill and knowledge and improve the efficiency of production. The capital is accumulated through savings and stimulates investments to sustain economic development.
論文目次 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................I
ABSTRACT................................................II
TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................IV
LIST OF TABLES..........................................VII
LIST OF FIGURES.........................................VIII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION................................1
1.1 Research Background...............................1
1.1.1 Economic Growth...................................1
1.1.2 Demographic Transition............................1
1.1.3 Demographic Transition and Taiwan.................2
1.2 Research Motivation and Objectives..................4
1.3 Structure of Research...............................6
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW...........................8
2.1 Population and Economic Growth Theories...........8
2.1.1 Classical Growth Theory...........................8
2.1.2 Neo-Classical Growth Theory (Exogenous Growth Theory)......8
2.1.3 Endogenous Growth Theory..........................9
2.2 Demographic Transition and Economic Growth........9
2.3 Development of Research Hypotheses................15
2.3.1 The Relationship between Old Age Population and Income Per Capita......15
2.3.2 The Relationship between Education Expenditure and Income Per Capita......16
2.3.3 The Relationship between The Savings Growth Rate and The Growth Rate of Income Per Capita......17
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY......18
3.1 Conceptual Framework..............................18
3.2 Theoretical Model.................................19
3.3 Variable Selection................................21
3.3.1 Dependent Variable- The Growth Rate of Income Per Capita [I]......21
3.3.2 Independent Variables.............................21
3.4 Data Collection...................................24
3.4.1 Dependent Variable- The Growth Rate of Income Per Capita [I]......25
3.4.2 Independent Variables.............................25
3.5 Data Analysis.....................................27
3.5.1 Ordinary Least Squares Multiple Linear Regression......27
3.5.2 Stepwise Regression...............................28
CHAPTER FOUR EMPIRICAL RESULTS..........................30
4.1 Descriptive Statistic Analysis....................30
4.2 The Empirical Model...............................34
4.3 Ordinary Least Squares Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and Results......39
4.3.1 New Taipei City......39
4.3.2 The Long-Standing Special Municipalities..........44
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS.................51
5.1 Conclusion........................................51
5.2 Recommendations...................................52
5.3 Limitations and Future Research Directions........54
REFERENCES..............................................57
APPENDICES..............................................61
Appendix 1: Model of Demographic Transition.............61
Appendix 2: New Taipei City Population Pyramid..........62
Appendix 3: New Taipei City Population Growth Trends from 1978 to 2008......63
Appendix 4: New Taipei City Economic Growth Trends from 1979 to 2008......63
Appendix 5: The Deduction Process of the Model of Bloom and Williamson......64
Appendix 6: Sample Data.................................66
Appendix 7: Natural Increase Rate and Social Increase Rate......68
Appendix 8: P-value of the Interaction Term.............68
Appendix 9: New Taipei City Residual Test...............69
Appendix 10: Kaohsiung City Residual Test...............70
Appendix 11: Education Attainment of Population Aged 15 and Over- Junior College and Above......72
Appendix 12: The Growth Trends of the Employment Aged 45 and Over from 1979 to 2008......73
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