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系統識別號 U0026-2308201017120800
論文名稱(中文) 透過科技經濟模型分析台灣WiMAX服務的發展
論文名稱(英文) WiMAX Service Development in Taiwan -through Techno-economic Model Analysis
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 98
學期 2
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 陳美伶
研究生(英文) Mei-Lin Chen
學號 r9693110
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 65頁
口試委員 指導教授-黃光渠
口試委員-蔡東峻
口試委員-陳文字
中文關鍵字 WiMAX  科技經濟模型  敏感度分析 
英文關鍵字 WiMAX  techno-economic model  sensitivity analysis 
學科別分類
中文摘要 科技的規格與標準的制訂一直掌握在先進國家的手中,但是同為亞洲四小龍的韓國卻能夠參與標準的制訂。反觀亞洲四小龍之首的台灣,雖然電信市場的滲透率極高,卻無法參與電信科技的發展,只能當個追隨者。近幾年來,4G技術倍受重視,而WiMAX(Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access)又為全球最具潛力之新興通訊技術之一。其「全IP技術」與「開放架構」,可以讓台灣有機會進入電信科技的領域中。於是台灣政府積極與國際設備大廠簽訂技術合作備忘錄,透過M台灣計畫扶植國內網通設備廠技術演進,業者也積極創造出殺手級應用及服務。在WiMAX發展藍圖推動至今,台灣已建構完整WiMAX產業供應鏈。頻譜方面,2007年7月已發放六張WiMAX分區營運執照,五家WiMAX業者也在2010年3月前陸續商轉,唯大眾電信目前測試營運中,並將預計在9月底前法定最後期限前正式商轉。雖然台灣政府積極發展WiMAX,但是否其發展之政策對WiMAX系統服務供應商有幫助呢?

本研究發現國外研究WiMAX的相關文獻中,許多學者採用科技經濟模型將新興科技的引進,分成科技面與經濟面的因素,並在最後合併兩個構面的因素,分析出有用的經濟結果。此分析過程與結果皆對於政府政策以及業者經營有著顯著地貢獻性。但台灣卻沒有這樣的模型作為新興科技發展依據的工具,更沒有文獻以此模型來作為台灣WiMAX服務市場的實證分析。因此本篇研究就是要發展適合台灣的科技經濟模型,並在經由實證分析之後,給予政府以及業者有貢獻性的建議。

本研究分為兩個情境進行分析:第一個情境將研究區域分為高雄市、南區和台灣全區,以探討執照發放區域的大小,是否會影響NPV。第二個情境將情境一的三個分區加入政府補貼的因素,以比較有無政府補貼對於業者的影響。結果發現,長期經營而言,全區執照獲利較為可觀,故WiMAX以後將走向合併或聯合經營的模式才是長久之計。至於補貼部分,由於補貼的CAPEX相對於業者本身負擔的OPEX仍舊太少,所以補貼並沒有對於業者有顯著的幫助。
英文摘要 Specifications and standards of technologies are always under the control of developed countries. As the same member of Asian Tigers, South Korea is able to join the standard working group, but Taiwan is mostly a follower. In the recent years, the fourth generation telecommunication technologies are emphasized than before. WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) is one of the most potential telecommunication technologies in the world. Its open technological structure and full IP-based technology offers Taiwan a chance to be one of the members, even a leader, in the WiMAX field. Therefore, Taiwan’s government aggressively signs MOU with international corporations and funds domestic internet telecommunication device corporations through M-Taiwan project. WiMAX ISPs are energetically creating killer applications and services, too. According to the blueprint of WiMAX development, Taiwan has constructed a complete WiMAX industrial supply chain. As far as the spectrum concerned, six district area licenses were issued in July, 2007. Five WiMAX ISPs launched business operating in March, 2010. Only the First International Telecom is still in business operation testing and expected to launch officially business operation in the end of September. Although Taiwan’s government shows its passions to develop WiMAX, would it be really helpful to those WiMAX ISPs?

Through literature reviews, it’s found that many scholars overseas adopted the techno-economic model to study business scenarios of a new technology. They combined the technology aspect and the economic aspect to conclude an economic result. Processes and results of this model devote itself many useful suggestions to the government and operators. But, there is no such useful model to analyze a new technology development in Taiwan. So, this research tries to develop a techno-economic model and to analyze Taiwan’s WiMAX empirical data to give some advices to Taiwan’s government and operators.

This research is divided into two scenarios. The first scenario assigns three different areas, such as Kaohsiung City, southern Taiwan area, and Taiwan area. The objective of this scenario is to discuss whether the area size of licensed area would affect NPV or not. The second scenario adds the variable of the government’s subsidies. The objective of this scenario is to discuss whether it’s significantly helpful to WiMAX ISPs or not. The finding of this research is that the Taiwan area license is most profitable in a long term. So, those WiMAX ISPs would be alliance or joint venture in the future. Concerning subsidies, it’s not significant helpful to WiMAX ISPs, because CAPEX, assumed funded by the government, takes a smaller portion compared to OPEX, invested by WiMAX ISPs themselves.
論文目次 摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 IV
Content VI
List of Tables VIII
List of Figures X
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Objective 3
1.3 Research Flow 4
Chapter 2 Literature Review 6
2.1 Introduction of WiMAX 7
2.1.1 Introduction of WiMAX Background 7
2.1.2 Concept of WiMAX Network Infrastructure 10
2.1.3 Comparisons among WiMAX and Other Technologies 11
2.2 Taiwan's WiMAX Development and Process of License Issued 13
2.2.1 Introduction of M-Taiwan 14
2.2.2 Process of WiMAX License Issuing in Taiwan 16
2.3 Overview of Global WiMAX 22
2.3.1 Operation Conditions of WiMAX in U.S.A., Japan, and South Korea 22
2.3.2 Overview of The WiMAX Development in the World 24
2.4 Theory and Applications in Techno-economic Model 25
Chapter 3 Research Method 28
3.1 Research Framework 28
3.2 Research Method 29
3.3 Research Scope 32
3.4 Research Limitation 32
Chapter 4 Empirical Analysis 33
4.1 Common Assumptions of Four Scenarios 33
4.2 Scenarios of Three Different Size of Licensed Areas 37
4.3 Scenarios with and without Subsidies 52
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 60
5.1 Conclusions 60
5.2 Suggestions for Future Study 61
Reference 63
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