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系統識別號 U0026-2306201616275000
論文名稱(中文) 2015年中國股災對台灣股票市場之影響
論文名稱(英文) The Impact of 2015 China Stock Market Crash on the Stock Market in Taiwan
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 企業管理學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Business Administration
學年度 104
學期 2
出版年 105
研究生(中文) 李秉勳
研究生(英文) Bing-Shun Li
學號 R46031280
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 39頁
口試委員 指導教授-康信鴻
共同指導教授-黃瀞瑩
口試委員-莊雙喜
口試委員-謝惠璟
中文關鍵字 中國股災  總體經濟變數  台灣股市  兩岸經濟  深圳股市  上海股市 
英文關鍵字 Chinese stock market crash  macroeconomic  Taiwan Strait  Shanghai Stock Market  Shenzhen Stock Market 
學科別分類
中文摘要 台灣與中國簽署ECFA 與MOU等相關經濟協定之後,與大陸的關係更是密不可分。近年來,中國已成為台灣第一大進出口國家,且外資大部分須從台灣與香港之窗口進入中國市場。在中國2015年發生中國股災時,其對台灣之影響甚大,中國所發生的重大金融事件對全球股市產生一定的創傷。除了關注中國股災發生後對台灣之影響之外,我們也加入許多總體經濟因素,試著找出其影響。
本文主要目的在探討中國股災的發生對台灣股票加權指數之影響,研究對象為中國股災發生前後對台灣股票加權指數之影響,同時也加入包括對中國出口值、失業率、消費者物價指數、美國道瓊指數、重貼現率、金價、油價與貨幣供給、上海綜合股價指數與深証成份指數等變數。
本研究實證結果指出,中國股災對台灣股票加權指數呈現反向的顯著影響;上海綜合股價指數對台灣股票加權指數呈現正向的顯著影響;深証成份指數對台灣股票加權指數呈現負向的顯著關係。
本研究所使用之總體經濟變數中,消費者物價指數對台灣股票加權指數呈現負向的顯著關係;國際油價對台灣股票加權指數呈現正向的顯著關係;美國道瓊工業平均指數對台灣股票加權指數呈現正向的顯著關係。其結果大多符合本研究之假設,除了消費者物價指數與深証成份指數。
英文摘要 After the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (hereafter the ECFA), the relationship between China and Taiwan became closely linked. In recent years, China has been the largest importer and exporter to Taiwan, and international funds flow into China’s capital market through Taiwan and Hong Kong. Therefore, impacts of the China stock market crash on Taiwan were unavoidable. In addition to China’s stock market crash, we also add other macroeconomic variables to examine their effects on Taiwan.
The weighted price index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange is set as the dependent variable in this study. The independent variables are the Shanghai Composite Index & the Shenzhen Component Index, values of exports to China in Taiwan, the unemployment rate, the CPI, the Dow Jones industrial average Index, the Taiwan rediscount rate, gold price, oil price, and the money supply in Taiwan. The empirical results show that the Chinese stock market crash in 2015 had a negative impact on the Taiwan Stock Market. The Shanghai Composite Index had a significantly positive effect on the Taiwan Stock Market. The Shenzhen Component Index and the CPI had a significantly negative relationship with the Taiwan Stock Market. Oil price and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index had a significantly positive relationship with the Taiwan Stock Market.
論文目次 Content
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivations 2
1.3 Research Purposes 3
Chapter 2 Literature Review 4
2.1 Literature Review on Taiwan’s Stock Market and Global Stock Market 4
2.2Literature Review on Financial Crisis and Stock Market 6
2.3 Literature Review on Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market 7
2.3.1Oil Price 7
2.3.2Interest Rate 8
2.3.3 Consumer Price Index 8
2.3.4 Money Supply 8
2.3.5Gold Price 9
2.3.6Unemployment Rate 9
Chapter 3 Data and Methodologies 10
3.1 The Definition of Variables 10
3.1.1 Dependent variables 10
3.1.2 Independent Variables 10
3.1.3 Data Sources 15
3.2 Research methods and Research process 16
3.2.1 Research Methods 17
3.3 Empirical Model 20
Chapter 4 Empirical Results 21
4.1 Results of Preliminary Regression Models 21
4.2 Multicollinearity test 23
4.3 Heteroskedasticity Test 24
4.4 Autocorrelation Test 25
4.5 Final Regression Model for the Taiwan Stock Market 27
4.6The consistency of empirical signs and expected signs 28
Chapter5 Conclusions and Suggestions 31
5.1The effects of Chinese Stock Market Crash on Taiwan’s Stock Market 31
5.2The Effects of China’s and the US Stock Markets on the Taiwan Stock Market 32
5.3The impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Taiwan’s Stock Market 33
5.4Suggestions and limitations 34
References 36
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