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系統識別號 U0026-2208201119015100
論文名稱(中文) 台灣重大天然災害死亡率分析:以集集大地震與莫拉克風災為例
論文名稱(英文) Mortality of Major Natural Disaster in Taiwan:the Population-based Study of Chichi Earthquake and Morakot Typhoon
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 公共衛生研究所
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Public Health
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生(中文) 葉佳佩
研究生(英文) Chia-Pei Yeh
學號 t86981079
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 85頁
口試委員 指導教授-王亮懿
口試委員-呂宗學
召集委員-莊佳璋
中文關鍵字 天然災害  死亡率  直接死亡  間接死亡  集集大地震  莫拉克風災 
英文關鍵字 nature disaster  mortality  directly related deaths  indirectly related deaths  Chichi earthquake  Morakot typhoon 
學科別分類
中文摘要 過去關於天然災害的死亡率研究,除了直接死亡外,還發現災害對於人類健康是有間接的死亡效應,如心血管疾病或是自殺等死亡。而所謂直接死亡是指因災害的物理力量直接導致的死亡;間接死亡則是在疏散、災害來臨,或是災後整頓重建期間,因為不安全或不健康的狀態下,發生的死亡。
然而,過去的天然災害研究多偏向探討直接死亡,間接死亡較不成熟,且關於災害所帶來的直接死亡與間接死亡影響,目前尚無同時合併分析的文獻。因此,我們利用死亡檔的原死因碼和多重死因碼分析兩種台灣天然災害的災區因災直接死亡的分布類型。在間接死亡方面,使用標準化死亡比比較災區與非災區在災前、災後不同時期,特定疾病別死亡率的變化,以了解天然災害的發生對於災區所造成的健康影響。
結果發現以南投全縣及部分台中縣看來,集集大地震的直接死亡主要是女性及老人最多,直接致死主因以「窒息和勒死」為最多,其次為「顱內損傷」、「特定創傷併發症和未明示的損傷」。而以高雄縣及屏東縣全縣看來,莫拉克風災的災後直接死亡主要是男性死亡數較多、老人死亡率較高。而25位有多重死因碼的風災直接致死者中,主要死因為「顱骨及顏面骨骨折」,其次為「淹死或溺水及窒息死」。
集集大地震的間接死亡結果,以年死亡率比較看來,男性非災區的事故傷害、腦血管疾病與糖尿病死亡都顯著增加;而災區女性的高血壓性疾病和敗血症則是顯著下降。莫拉克風災的年死亡率結果看來,男性是災區的肺炎死亡呈顯著增加,非災區的高血壓性疾病死亡呈顯著增加;女性的敗血症、事故傷害與惡性腫瘤則是災區呈顯著上升。
由上述結果看來,我們建議未來原死因為天然災害死者,應加強建立其他多重死因碼,以利深入了解災害發生後,所帶來的直接死亡風險。此外,地震的直接致死者主要是窒息、顱內損傷、特定創傷併發症和未明示的損傷,可能是死者受到建物倒塌壓傷或落物砸死,也許與房屋建材有關,建議相關專家可提供地震危險地帶的房屋建材安全考量。
關於天然災害間接死亡的健康效應,我們發現常見慢性病的死亡率在災後反而是降低的,代表災後患者的病況仍能持續得到控制與照護,可能是使患者災後病情不易加速惡化,導致死亡率反而降低的原因。
此外,莫拉克風災後惡性腫瘤的死亡情形,不管男女都呈現增加,是否可能因為災害壓力事件衝擊到患者治療效果或影響健康,值得後續研究者深入討論。
英文摘要 The mortality study about natural disasters in the past was not only on directly related deaths, but also on health effects of indirectly related deaths, such as cardiovascular disease and suicide mortality. The directly related deaths are those caused by the physical forces of the disasters; while the indirectly related deaths are those caused by unsafe or unhealthy conditions that occur because of the anticipation, or actual occurrence, of the disaster. These conditions include the loss or disruption of usual services, personal loss, and disruption of an individual’s lifestyle.
However, former studies usually focused on the directly related deaths, while indirectly related deaths studies were less profound. Moreover, there is no research exists that analyzes the conjunction of directly and indirectly related deaths. Therefore, in this essay cause of death data and multiple cause of death data were used to study the directly and indirectly related deaths about Taiwan Chichi earthquake and Morakot typhoon. In order to find the health effects of the natural disasters on disaster affected areas, we use the standardized mortality ratio to compare disaster affected areas and non-affected areas in different periods- before and after the disasters in analyzing the indirect related deaths.
The result turns out to be that, in Nantou County and Taichung County, the elder people and women were the most vulnerable groups in Chi-Chi earthquake. The biggest cause of directly related deaths was "asphyxiation," followed by "intracranial injury, traumatic complications and injuries." In contrast, we find that in Kaohsiung County and Pingtung County, the elder people and men were the most vulnerable groups in Morakot typhoon. In analyzing 25 objects who code multiple causes of death, the mainly directly related deaths were "skull and facial bone fractures," followed by "drowning or asphyxiation."
As for indirectly related deaths in Chi-Chi earthquake, in non-affected areas, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes deaths have significantly increased among men, in terms of annual mortality; while the hypertensive diseases and sepsis are significantly decreased among women in affected areas. For Morakot typhoon, in disaster-affected areas, men died of pneumonia increased significantly, while sepsis, accidents, and malignant tumors increased significantly in causes of death among women. In non-affected areas men who died of hypertensive disease mortality significantly increased.
According to the findings above, we recommend that when analyzing who died from natural disasters, in addition to code the cause of death, the researchers should also take code the multiple causes of death into consideration to understand more the directly related deaths of the nature disasters. Moreover, the lethal causes of death in earthquake were mainly asphyxiation, intracranial injury, and traumatic complications and injuries. It’s possible that these causalities were crushed by collapsing buildings or by falling objects, which led to their death. Therefore, it is suggested that around seismic hazard zone, housing materials should be chosen cautiously to decrease the risk of death in earthquakes.
As for health effects on human after natural disaster, we found that common chronic disease mortality was reduced in disaster-affected areas. We thus assumed that the patients’ health after the disaster is under better control so that the mortality was reduced.
Finally, after the Morakot typhoon, in the disaster-affected areas the ratio of malignant tumors mortality significantly increased both in men and women. Whether stress resulting from disasters has negative effects on cancer cure process is an issue worth follow-up research.
論文目次 目錄
摘要 1
ABSTRACT 3
致謝 6
目錄 I
圖目錄 III
表目錄 IV
第一章、 前言 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第二章、 文獻探討 4
第一節 各國地震的死亡研究 4
一、 直接死亡 4
二、 間接死亡 5
第二節 各國熱帶氣旋的死亡研究 8
一、 直接死亡 8
二、 間接死亡 8
第三節 台灣地震與颱風的死亡研究 10
一、 地震 10
二、 颱風 11
第四節 各國地震與熱帶氣旋的疾病研究 12
一、 地震 12
二、 熱帶氣旋 13
第三章、 材料與方法 18
第一節 研究問題與假說 18
第二節 資料來源 19
第三節 分析變項定義 21
第四節 資料分析方法 23
第四章、 結果 26
第一節 集集大地震結果 26
一、 直接死亡 26
二、 間接死亡 27
第二節 莫拉克風災結果 29
一、 直接死亡 29
二、 間接死亡 30
第五章、 討論 34
第六章、 結論 38
第七章、 參考文獻 40

圖目錄
圖一、集集地震後南投縣與部分台中縣(23個鄉鎮市)的男女性年齡別直接致死死亡率 47
圖二、集集大地震後南投縣與部分台中縣(23個鄉鎮市)直接致死的時間分佈 48
圖三、集集地震後南投縣與台中縣共34個鄉鎮市區的直接致死死亡數與死亡率空間分布 49
圖四、莫拉克風災後高雄縣與屏東縣(60個鄉鎮市)的男女性年齡別直接致死死亡率 50
圖五、莫拉克風災後高雄縣與屏東縣(60個鄉鎮市)直接致死的時間分佈 51
圖六、莫拉克風災後高雄市、高雄縣與屏東縣共71個鄉鎮市區的直接致死死亡數與死亡率空間分布 52
圖七、1996-8及2000-2年相對於1999年南投縣與部分台中縣(23個鄉鎮市)的男女性年齡別扣除地震致死的死亡率 53
圖八、2008年相對於2009年高雄縣與屏東縣(60個鄉鎮市)的男女性年齡別扣除風災致死的死亡率 54

表目錄
表一、集集地震後南投縣與部分台中縣(23個鄉鎮市)的男女性年齡別直接致死死亡率 55
表二、集集地震後南投縣與台中縣共34個鄉鎮市區的直接致死死亡數與死亡率 56
表三、集集地震後南投縣與部分台中縣(23個鄉鎮市)的直接致死分類及男女性死亡人數、百分比 57
表四、莫拉克風災後高雄縣與屏東縣(60個鄉鎮市)的男女性年齡別直接致死死亡率 58
表五、莫拉克風災後高雄市、高雄縣與屏東縣共71個鄉鎮市區的直接致死死亡數與死亡率 59
表六、莫拉克風災後高雄縣與屏東縣(60個鄉鎮市)的直接致死多重死因碼分類及男女性死亡人數、百分比 61
表七、集集地震男性災區與非災區同期一年(9/21到隔年9/20)的標準化死亡比 62
表八、集集地震女性災區與非災區同期一年(9/21到隔年9/20)的標準化死亡比 63
表九、集集地震災區男性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 64
表十、集集地震非災區男性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 65
表十一、集集地震災區女性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 66
表十二、集集地震非災區女性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 67
表十三、集集地震45歲以上男性災區與非災區同期一年(9/21到隔年9/20)的標準化死亡比 68
表十四、集集地震45歲以上女性災區與非災區同期一年(9/21到隔年9/20)的標準化死亡比 69
表十五、集集地震災區45歲以上男性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 70
表十六、集集地震非災區45歲以上男性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 71
表十七、集集地震災區45歲以上女性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 72
表十八、集集地震非災區45歲以上女性同期一個月(9/21-10/20)、四個月(11月到隔年2月)、半年(隔年3到8月)的標準化死亡比 73
表十九、莫拉克風災男性災區與非災區同期一年(8/6到隔年8/5)的標準化死亡比 74
表二十、莫拉克風災女性災區與非災區同期一年(8/6到隔年8/5)的標準化死亡比 75
表二十一、莫拉克風災災區男性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 76
表二十二、莫拉克風災非災區男性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 77
表二十三、莫拉克風災災區女性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9到12月)、半年(隔年1到7月)的標準化死亡比 78
表二十四、莫拉克風災非災區女性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 79
表二十五、莫拉克風災45歲以上男性災區與非災區同期一年(8/6到隔年8/5)的標準化死亡比 80
表二十六、莫拉克風災45歲以上女性災區與非災區同期一年(8/6到隔年8/5)的標準化死亡比 81
表二十七、莫拉克風災災區45歲以上男性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 82
表二十八、莫拉克風災非災區45歲以上男性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 83
表二十九、莫拉克風災災區45歲以上女性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 84
表三十、莫拉克風災非災區45歲以上女性同期一個月(8/6-9/5)、四個月(9月到12月)、半年(隔年1月到7月)的標準化死亡比 85

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