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系統識別號 U0026-2207202012144200
論文名稱(中文) 雨量、暴潮及淹水重現期之關聯分析
論文名稱(英文) Analyzing the relationship among the return periods of rainfall, tide surge, and flooding
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 黃培勳
研究生(英文) Pei-Hsung Huang
學號 N86071099
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 51頁
口試委員 指導教授-張駿暉
口試委員-陳憲宗
口試委員-江申
中文關鍵字 雨量  暴潮  頻率分析  影響人口  淹水深度  淹水模式 
英文關鍵字 rainfall  storm surge  frequency analysis  people affected by flooding  the depth of flooding  flooding model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 對於沿海地區來說,暴潮與降雨皆為造成淹水的重要因子,但此兩因子並非完全相關。當颱風事件發生時,強降雨與暴潮通常伴隨著發生,但當梅雨或西南氣流引致降雨時,卻不見得同時引致暴潮;反之,當地震或海嘯發生導致暴潮事件時,強降雨也未必伴隨發生。換言之,推估沿海地區之淹水發生頻率,必須考慮暴潮與降雨之交互關係,否則容易發生偏頗。本研究以嘉義縣龍宮溪流域為研究區域,蒐集1993年至2015年間歷史降雨與潮位資料,分別以三種情境進行事件選取,搭配水理模式計算各場事件之淹水深度與影響人數,進行頻率分析。情境一選取各年24小時最大降雨量與其發生期間相對應之潮位,作為淹水模式之輸入條件;情境二選取各年最大潮位與其發生期間相對應之24小時降雨量,作為淹水模式之輸入條件;情境三選取前兩個情境模擬得出之淹水深度與影響人數中,各年最大者進行頻率分析。結果顯示,與情境三相比,以情境一或情境二選取的事件進行頻率分析,將高估淹水深度與影響人口的發生機率。此外,降雨發生機率與淹水發生機率比較顯示,兩者相關係數僅有0.7228、情境一之模擬淹水深度的均方根誤差達到0.6374;暴潮發生機率與淹水發生機率兩者相關係數0.5489、情境二之模擬淹水深度的均方根誤差0.5925。因此,在評估沿海地區特定重現期的淹水衝擊時,若僅考慮雨量或潮位的發生機率,而不考慮兩者的聯合效應,將會造成嚴重的低估。
英文摘要 For coastal areas, storm surge and rainfall are important factors that cause flooding, but these two factors are not completely related. When a typhoon event occurs, heavy rainfall and storm surges usually accompany it. However, when rains are caused by rainy season or southwest air, they do not necessarily cause storm surge at the same time. In other words, in estimating the frequency of flooding in coastal areas, the relationship between storm surge and rainfall must be considered, otherwise bias will easily occur. In this study, the events were selected in three scenarios, and the flooding depth and the number of people affected by each event were calculated with the hydraulic model. Scenario –R selects the 24-hour maximum rainfall of each year and the corresponding tide level during its occurrence period as the input data; Scenario-T selects the maximum tide level of each year and corresponding rainfall during its occurrence period as the input data; Scenario-Max Select the largest of the flooding depth and the number of people affected by Scenario-R and Scenario-T. The results show that compared with Scenario-Max, the frequency analysis of Scenario-R or Scenario-T will overestimate the depth of flooding and the probability of people affected. Therefore, when evaluating the flooding impact of a specific return period in coastal areas, if only consider the probability of rainfall or tide level, and the combined effect of the two factors is not considered, it will cause a serious underestimation.
論文目次 中文摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 VI
目錄 VII
圖目錄 IX
表目錄 X
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機 1
1-2 文獻回顧 2
1-3 本文架構 4
第二章 研究方法 5
2-1 研究地區 6
2-2 資料選取 7
2-3 淹水模式 17
2-4 淹水模擬驗證指標 19
2-5 頻率分析方法 20
第三章 淹水模擬 24
3-1 淹水模式驗證 24
3-2 模擬淹水深度 25
3-3 淹水影響人口 39
第四章 頻率分析結果 40
4-1 淹水深度 40
4-2 影響人口 46
第五章 結論與建議 51
參考文獻 i
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