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系統識別號 U0026-2207201516545900
論文名稱(中文) 不連續生產販賣易腐性商品之研究
論文名稱(英文) The production and selling of the perishable items in discontinuous process
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management
學年度 103
學期 2
出版年 104
研究生(中文) 李宛蓉
研究生(英文) Wan-Jung Li
學號 R36024079
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 52頁
口試委員 指導教授-王泰裕
口試委員-陳梁軒
口試委員-蔡青志
口試委員-林君維
中文關鍵字 適應性類神經模糊推論系統  不連續生產情境下之販賣模式  易腐性存貨 
英文關鍵字 Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)  small-scale family farms  perishable product 
學科別分類
中文摘要 農業貿易自由化早已成為國際趨勢,加入WTO後,農業貿易自由化促成無國界競爭的強化,台灣農業面臨的外部威脅是以經濟規模和專業分工打造強勢競爭的農業大國,而台灣的農業經營型態為小農家庭農場為主,缺乏經濟規模、通路議價能力以及高齡化的農業勞力,成為阻礙產業競爭力的內部劣勢。因此,台灣的小農面臨農業經濟大國的威脅,該如何在小農耕種的體制下,以農業經營管理的知識來彌補其劣勢為台灣農業發展之重要課題。
本研究以台灣主要的農業經營型態—小農家庭農場且採用隧道式栽種之農產品為研究對象,希望嘗試以農民可以獲取的資料及已具備之模糊規則知識,透過適應性類神經模糊推論系統進行農產品可販售期間價格波動之預測,來降低小農對於市場價格資訊的不確定性,再根據農產品實際耕種情形建立一個不連續生產情境下之採收販賣模式,同時考量農產品之易腐特性,以利潤最大化為目標,來制訂農產品的最佳販售決策。
最後,將利用訪問農家得出實際參數來驗證本模式,再使用敏感度分析歸納出對於利潤影響較顯著的參數,並給予販賣政策的建議。分析結果顯示,農產品價格、生產量損耗率以及單位生產成本對於利潤影響較為顯著,農家欲增加利潤,可從了解農產品供需市場資訊以預測價格趨勢、提升栽培技術以降低生產損耗率以及落實成本管理來分類各成本之細項以利於控制並降低單位生產成本。
英文摘要 This study focuses on small-scale family farms with tunnel farming. With data from the farmers and fuzzy rules knowledge, Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was applied to forecast the market price variation under selling periods to decrease the uncertainty of market price information for the farmers. An operational model for planning the harvest and sale under a discrete scenario was then established based on the real farming scenario. The optimal selling decision can be made under the tradeoff between the preservation of the value of perishable crops and maximization of the revenue. Last, the parameters obtained from interviewing the farmers were applied to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis then is used to determine the parameters with significant impact on the revenue and to provide suggestions on selling polices. Based on the results, products market price, harvest volumes and unit production costs show higher impact on revenue. To increase revenue, farmers can control and cut down the unit production costs by forecasting the price trend from market information, increasing harvest volume by improving farming technology, and conducting cost management.
論文目次 英文摘要 i
摘 要 viii
致 謝 ix
目 錄 x
圖目錄 xii
表目錄 xiii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究範圍與限制 4
第四節 研究流程 5
第五節 論文架構 6
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 農業蔬果設施 7
第二節 易腐性存貨 9
2.2.1 易腐性存貨的定義與分類 9
2.2.2 腐敗率相關文獻 10
2.2.3 腐敗性存貨近期文獻研究方向統整 12
第三節 適應性類神經模糊系統 14
2.3.1 模糊理論 15
2.3.2 類神經網路 15
2.3.3 類神經模糊系統 16
2.3.4 適應性類神經模糊系統 16
2.3.4.1 適應性類神經模糊推論系統架構 17
2.3.4.2 誤差倒傳遞學習演算法 18
第四節 小節 19
第三章 應用適應性類神經模糊系統於不連續生產販售模式 20
第一節 問題描述 20
第二節 模式架構與參數符號 25
第三節 不連續階段生產情境下之採收販賣模式建立 29
第四節 模式求解 31
第五節 小節 31
第四章 模式驗證與分析 32
第一節 情境描述 32
第二節 參數設定與求解過程 33
第三節 求解結果與敏感度分析 39
4.1 求解流程 39
4.2 求解結果與兩種情境之決策結果比較 40
4.3敏感度分析 42
第四節 小結 46
第五章 結論與建議 47
第一節 研究結論 47
第二節 未來研究方向 48
參考文獻 49

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