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系統識別號 U0026-2201201411233100
論文名稱(中文) 人口高齡化對每人醫療支出之影響:台灣之實證研究(1999-2011)
論文名稱(英文) The Impact of Population Aging on Per Capita Medical Health Expenditure:The Case of Taiwan, 1999-2011
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 政治經濟研究所
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Political Economy
學年度 102
學期 1
出版年 103
研究生(中文) 周立婷
研究生(英文) Li-Ting Chou
學號 U16001046
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 67頁
口試委員 指導教授-許永河
口試委員-蔡群立
口試委員-李慶男
中文關鍵字 高齡化  醫療支出  追蹤資料  橫斷面相依 
英文關鍵字 Population aging  Health care expenditure  Panel data  Cross-sectional dependence 
學科別分類
中文摘要 人口高齡化問題衝擊著一國社會、經濟、財政的發展,台灣自1993年進入高齡化社會後,如今65歲以上老年人口占總人口之比例已達11%,未來台灣將面對高齡人口長期照護需求增加、家庭照顧費用提升、照護高齡者之財源籌措困難等問題。就支出面而言,人口高齡化長久以來被視為醫療支出上漲的重要因素之一,然而高齡化影響醫療支出的機制為何則有眾多說法,因此,本文欲探討人口高齡化對每人醫療支出之影響,並利用追蹤資料之計量方法進行實證分析。
本文利用衛生福利部統計處之全民健康保險醫療統計,以台灣1999年至2011年20縣市之資料進行估計,並利用Hoechle(2007)提出之穩健標準誤估計法(robust standard errors)處理具橫斷面相依之追蹤資料,檢驗社會經濟及醫療資源相關變數對於每人醫療支出之影響。本文探討影響每人醫療支出之變數包括65歲以上老年人口比率、工作年齡人口比率、專上教育人口之比率、失業率、離婚率、每人可支配所得、每人可支配所得之平方項、醫療資源指標等。實證結果顯示,每人醫療支出與65歲以上老年人口比率、工作年齡人口比率、專上教育程度者比率、每人可支配所得,以及醫療資源指標對醫療支出有顯著且正向的關係,但與所得平方項呈反向關係。此外,根據本文實證結果,65歲以上老年人口比率每上升1%,將使每人醫療支出增加約1414.38元。
英文摘要 Taiwan has become an aging society since 1993. In 2011, the proportion of population over age 65 in Taiwan was 11%, and this ratio is expected to reach 20% in 2025. Since old age people tends to develop chronic disease, many researchers have claimed that population aging generates pressures on the health care system and contributes to health care costs. Thus, this thesis aims to investigate the impact of population aging on per capita medical expenditure in Taiwan.

This thesis employed a panel data set of 15 counties and 5 metropolitan areas of Taiwan, to explore the impact of population aging on per capita medical expenditure. A robust standard errors technique for panel regressions is employed to cope with cross-sectional dependence in panel data. The empirical results indicate that the ratio of population age 65 and over has significant impact on per capita medical expenditure in Taiwan. In addition, increases in the ratio of working age population, the ratio of people with higher education, and level of per capita disposable income also have positive and significant association with per capita medical expenditure.
論文目次 第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的1
第二節 研究內容與研究架構4
第二章 文獻回顧6
第一節 醫療保健支出決定因素6
第二節 高齡化與醫療保健支出之關係11
第三章 研究方法19
第一節 追蹤資料之計量方法19
第二節 實證模型、變數說明與資料來源 25
第四章 實證結果分析37
第一節 敘述統計37
第二節 單根檢定40
第三節 追蹤資料模型之檢定41
第四節 橫斷面相依特性之檢定44
第五節 遺漏變數檢定44
第六節 實證結果46
第五章 結論52
第一節 研究發現與結論52
第二節 研究限制與建議54
參考文獻56
附錄一:縣市別敘述統計63
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