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系統識別號 U0026-2108201323393200
論文名稱(中文) 高齡化對國民儲蓄及金融市場的影響
論文名稱(英文) How will the phenomenon of aging affect households saving and the financial market?
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 袁允齊
研究生(英文) Yun-Chi Yuan
電子信箱 lay_1204_11033@hotmail.com
學號 u56001060
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 90頁
口試委員 指導教授-許永河
口試委員-吳清在
口試委員-李世榮
中文關鍵字 高齡化  後凱因斯  國民儲蓄  家計單位投資組合  資產報酬率 
英文關鍵字 Aging  post-Keynesian  personal saving  household portfolio  rate of returns on assets 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文分析了台灣人口高齡化與國民儲蓄及金融市場之間的關係。本文著重於家計單位的財富累積和金融資產配置以及各金融資產報酬率,其包括股票、公司債、國庫券、長期公債和貨幣存款。年齡介於16到64歲的主要勞動人口代表人口老化變遷,其資料取自於行政院經濟建設委員會之「中華民國2012年至2060年人口推計」報告。交易流動表 (transactions-flow matrices) 和存量―流量一致模型 (stock-flow consistent model) 為各個金融資產如何於金融市場內各部門的交易行為中,提供必要的資訊。模型以後凱因斯理論為基礎建構而成。本文同時評估人口高齡化是否會導致金融市場風暴。模擬結果發現,高齡化現象對總體經濟以及金融市場存在可觀察到的衝擊影響。家計單位傾向將財富分配於具有較高獲利性和流動性的股票及貨幣存款。另外,生產力成長會對經濟體提供較大的正面效果,且較強烈的人口老化效果將會導致較高的薪資成本並且刺激家計單位分配更多的財富於股票。這些結果對於去了解處於高齡化時代下金融市場的轉變,具有重要的經濟意涵。
英文摘要 This paper analyzes the relationship between population aging and personal saving as well as the financial market in Taiwan. It focuses on the wealth accumulation of households and the financial assets allocation as well as the rate of returns on each financial asset, including stock equities, corporate bonds, Treasury bills, long term bonds and money deposits. The major labor force aged 16 to 64 represents the transition of population aging; data is attained by medium variant population projections for R.O.C (2012 - 2060). The transactions-flow matrices and stock-flow consistent model provide essential information on how each financial asset is dealt between sectors in the financial market. The model is built based on the notion of post-Keynesian. This paper tries to assess the notion whether the population aging will lead to financial market meltdown. The simulation results suggest that the phenomenon of aging has detectable impacts on macroeconomics and the financial market. Households tend to allocate their wealth to equities and money deposits which have higher profitability and higher liquidity. Further, productivity growth will provide more positive effect to the economy, and stronger effect of population aging will induce higher wage cost and stimulate households to hold more equities. These results are important to realize the implications for the transition of the financial market during the eta of aging.
論文目次 Chapter 1. Introduction 1
Chapter 2. Literature Review 5
2.1 The Impact of Aging on Saving 5
2.2 The Impact of Aging on Financial Asset Prices and Returns 6
2.3 The Impact of Aging on Households Portfolio and Financial Market 8
Chapter 3. Methodology and the Stock-Flow Consistent Model 10
3.1 Economic Circular Flow Diagram 12
3.2 Transactions-Flow Matrices and Balance Sheet 17
3.3 Stock-Flow Consistent Model 22
3.3.1 Decisions Taken by Firms 24
3.3.2 Decisions Taken by Households 32
3.3.3 The Public Sector 36
3.3.4 The Banking Sector 38
Chapter 4. Simulation Results 42
4.1 Baseline Simulation 42
4.2 Further Experiments 1: Productivity Growth Contribution 53
4.3 Further Experiments 2: The Extent of Aging 63
Chapter 5. Conclusion 73

Reference. 78
Appendix A: The Model Comparison 80
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