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系統識別號 U0026-2007201121031000
論文名稱(中文) 村村有寬頻:臺灣偏遠地區免費寬頻政策之實證分析
論文名稱(英文) Broadband to Every Village:An Empirical Analysis of Free Rural Broadband Policy in Taiwan
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生(中文) 鄭凱元
研究生(英文) Kai-Yuan Cheng
學號 r9697110
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 87頁
口試委員 指導教授-黃光渠
口試委員-王小惠
口試委員-蔡東峻
中文關鍵字 普及服務  寬頻  多元線性迴歸 
英文關鍵字 Universal service  Broadband  Multiple linear regression 
學科別分類
中文摘要 「村村有寬頻」,在一些開發中國家只是一個遙不可及的口號,但國家通訊傳播委員會(通傳會)已將這口號制定為政策目標,並一步一步落實偏遠地區的寬頻普及服務於台灣各村落。國家通訊傳播委員會使用普及服務基金,對互聯網服務供應商作補貼,並規畫在六年內,以佈署光纖為主要方式將寬頻延伸到所有沒有寬頻的村里,而這些村里的用戶,每月的寬頻線路費用在前兩年是免費的。
本研究的數據於2011年4月收集,研究涵蓋了已佈建好寬頻線路的147個村里。寬頻申裝率範圍差異極大,從零到百分之百不等,但平均普及率約只有百分之二十五。從多元線性迴歸模型可看到,教育程度、人口密度、市話線路的普及率以及高齡人口為影響寬頻接取普及率的四個主要因素,能解釋百分之七十四的變異。相較之下,關於種族,無論是原住民族與否,則無統計上的差異。
分析強調寬頻教育和電腦運用技能,在實施「村村有寬頻」政策之免費寬頻服務的重要性。這對開發中國家是一個警惕,也就是免費寬頻對於貧困和偏遠的村里,並不能保證高申裝率。此外,申裝率預測模型可以作為一個從需求方面考慮的有力決策工具,它能使決策者對於具有高申裝率潛力的村里,於等待名單中作優先的分配,使普及服務的基金分配更具效率。
英文摘要 Broadband to Every Village, a common slogan in developing countries, is a policy already implemented in Taiwan. The ISPs in Taiwan are fully subsidized by National Communications Commission using a universal service fund to deploy optic fiber to all no broadband rural villages in six years. The monthly broadband fee is free during the first two years for subscribers in these villages.
The data, collected in April 2011, for this research covers the 147 villages with broadband connection established. The subscription rates range with great differences from zero to 100 percent, but the average subscription rate is only 25 percent. Our regression model indicates that education, population density, local telephone line penetration rates and age are the four significant factors explaining 74 percentages of variation in the subscription rates. In contrast, ethnicity, whether the village residents are aboriginals or not, is insignificant.
The analysis highlights the importance of broadband education and computer skills in implementing Free Broadband to Every Village policy. A lesson for developing countries is that free broadband does not guarantee high adoption rates in poor and remote villages. In addition, the subscription rate forecasting model can serve as a powerful decision tool from demand side considerations. It enables policy makers to assign priority for villages with high subscription rate potential in the waiting list with more efficient universal fund allocation.
論文目次 摘要Ⅰ
致謝Ⅲ
目錄Ⅴ
表目錄Ⅶ
圖目錄Ⅷ
第一章 緒論1
1.1 研究背景與動機1
1.1.1 研究背景1
1.1.2 研究動機3
1.2 研究目的5
1.3 研究範圍與對象6
1.4 研究流程7
第二章 文獻回顧9
2.1 電信普及服務概述9
2.1.1 電信普及服務的發展9
2.1.2 電信普及服務運作機制12
2.1.3 各國對普及服務之定義14
2.1.4 各國普及服務執行內容及成效探討16
2.1.5 各國普及服務基金之資金來源及分配22
2.2 偏遠地區寬頻應用技術與寬頻申裝率探討27
2.2.1 偏遠地區寬頻應用技術27
2.2.2 偏遠地區寬頻申裝率探討29
2.3 數位落差及影響寬頻使用之因素35
2.3.1 數位落差35
2.3.2 影響寬頻使用之因素探討37
第三章 研究方法41
3.1 相關分析41
3.2 多元線性迴歸及判定係數42
3.2.1 多元線性迴歸42
3.2.2 判定係數44
3.3 統計資料來源45
3.4 變數選取及定義46
3.4.1 應變數47
3.4.2 自變數47
第四章 實證分析51
4.1 研究樣本資訊與敘述統計51
4.2 迴歸估計結果52
4.2.1 多元共線性測試55
4.2.2 線性迴歸模型估計結果58
4.3 迴歸估計結果對各變數的解釋意涵59
4.4 線性模型穩定度測試62
第五章 結論與建議64
5.1 研究結論與政策意涵64
5.2 研究限制與後續研究建議65
5.2.1 研究限制65
5.2.2 後續研究建議66
參考文獻67
附錄(一) 數據通信接取普及服務實施計畫(96)、(97)、(98)表75
附錄(二)「村村有寬頻」寬頻上網普及率統計(96)、(97)、(98)表85
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