系統識別號 U0026-2007201113452400
論文名稱(中文) 以SEED CA模型探討台南市五期重劃區之建地成長特性
論文名稱(英文) Using SEED CA model to study the behavior of built-up areas growth of the fifth district of urban consolidation in Tainan City
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 都市計劃學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Urban Planning
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生(中文) 謝雅婷
研究生(英文) Ya-Ting Shei
學號 P26984071
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 82頁
口試委員 指導教授-林峰田
中文關鍵字 市地重劃  空間多準則評估  SEED CA模型 
英文關鍵字 Urban Consolidation  Multi-Criteria Evaluation  SEED CA Model 
中文摘要   市地重劃後的新開發區具有街廓大且完整、道路及公共設施配置完成等情形,造成市地重劃區的土地開發因素眾多,但必然有一發展特性。本研究以台南市五期重劃區為研究範圍,探討1986~2006年新開發區的建地成長情形及特性。台南市五期重劃區過去為台江內海的一部分,1970年代劃定市地重劃區後,近年來都市發展及地景變遷快速。
  本研究主要係利用空間區位條件所得的建地發展潛力模擬建地成長,利用SEED CA模型建構不同的情境模式探討建地成長特性。SEED CA模型係以發展起始點(seeds)作為都市發展的初始生長點,具有鄰近空間互動的演化特性,可以探討聚落成長或都市化過程。本研究將SEED CA模型應用於新開發區,嘗試探討市地重劃區範圍內建地生長建歷程是否呈現規則或係為隨機成長?
  本研究首先利用空間自相關分析五期重劃區的建地分布型態,並將空間熱點作為SEED CA模型中的發展起始點 ;其次應用空間多準則評估探討空間區位條件對建地成長的影響,計算建地發展潛力値作為SEED CA模型中格點轉換的基礎;最後建構SEED CA模型模擬動態的建地成長情形,透過設定不同的起始點及近鄰定義方式探討五期重劃區建地的成長特性。
  模擬結果應用不同的驗證指標評估模型解釋力,研究結果發現SEED CA模型較空間多準則評估所預測的結果更為接近實際現況,說明建地成長除了受區位特性影響外,空間互動及鄰近特性因子對建地成長亦具有影響性。此外,在SEED CA模型中,透過隨機設定發展起始點之模式可以產生相似的建地型態,顯示不論第一個建地在何處生長,經空間互動及時間演化最後形成的都市型態是相似的,此種現象類似複雜系統中自我組織的特性。
英文摘要 After taking an urban consolidation, lands have some characteristics about large and complete zones, cofigured public facilities and road. There are many factors and rules that cause the development of built-up areas on new urban consolidation lands, and it has some behaviors of built-up areas growth. This study selected the Fifth District Urban Consolidation of Tainan City as case study area to research the pattern and growth behavior of built-up areas from 1986 to 2006. This area was a part of Taijiang Inner Sea. On 1970s it has been delimitted as an urban consolidation area, since then urban development and landscape changes rapidly.
This study used development potential that based on spatial location to simulate growth of built-up areas. It studied the behavior of built-up areas growth of new urban consolidation land by constructting SEED CA model. In the SEED CA model, seeds are the initial growing seeds of urban development, and they have neighborhood spatial interaction characteristic. SEED CA model can simulate the process of settlement growth or urbanization.
In this study, first we used Spatial Autocorrelation to analysis distribution pattern of built-up area, and identified hot spots to be original seeds. Then, we calculate the development potential of each cell by Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE). The development potential is the main factor to change the cell state in the SEED CA model. Finally, we constructed a SEED CA model to modelling dynamical growth of built-up areas, and we setted different original seeds and neighborhoods to study the behavior of built-up areas growth.
We verified the simulation results by using a variety of validation indicators to evaluate the explanatory power of model. This research proved the validation indicators of SEED CA model is better than the validation indicators of MCE, the simulation result represent that not only spatial location but also the spatial interaction and neighborhood characteristics will affect the growth of built-up areas. In the SEED CA model, setting random seeds will produce similar built-up area pattern. It means that no matter where the first building site is, there are some similar urban patterns through the spatial interaction and time evolution. The characteristic is similar to self-organization of complex system.
論文目次 第一章 緒 論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與內容 4
第三節 研究方法與流程 8
第二章 文獻回顧 11
第一節 土地利用變遷研究與模型 11
第二節 網格自動機模型理論及應用 19
第三節 相關空間理論 35
第三章 研究設計 39
第一節 研究架構 39
第二節 空間自相關分析 41
第三節 空間多準則評估 44
第四節 SEED CA模型設計 47
第四章 模型建構與模擬分析 55
第一節 研究區域概述與基礎資料建置 55
第二節 建地空間分析及發展潛力値分析 61
第三節 SEED CA模型模擬與比較分析 72
第五章 結論與建議 79
第一節 結論 79
第二節 後續研究建議 81
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