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系統識別號 U0026-1808202021124300
論文名稱(中文) 不同品牌電動機車相對燃油機車選擇偏好及市場區隔研究-燃油機車產業轉型的路徑分析
論文名稱(英文) Consumer Preference and market segmentation for different brand electric scooters: Industrial transformation path analysis of gasoline-fueled scooter
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理科學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science(on the job class)
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 徐爾聯
研究生(英文) Erh-Lien Hsu
學號 R57071073
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 69頁
口試委員 指導教授-黃國平
口試委員-胡大瀛
口試委員-石豐宇
中文關鍵字 電動機車  敘述性偏好  多元羅吉特  轉型路徑 
英文關鍵字 Electric Scooter  Stated Preference  Multinomial Logit  Transformation Path 
學科別分類
中文摘要 近年來,政府政策鼓勵以及電動機車能源補充方式革新,促使許多傳統機車業者轉型投入電動機車市場,提振了國內電動機車需求。我國機車登記數已超過1千3百萬輛,積極發展電動機車,不僅有助於改善空氣汙染、促進燃油機車產業轉型,更能在國際電動機車市場佔有一席之地。
過去有許多以電動車輛為主題的研究,大多著墨於電動汽車的發展,本研究透過敘述性偏好法,探討機車持有率較高的南部縣市(台南市、高雄市與屏東縣)消費者對於不同品牌的電動機車之選擇偏好以及其市場區隔特性,以了解傳統燃油機車產業轉型的途徑。
根據本研究之問卷分析結果,「售價」及「電池資費方案」是共生變數中最為顯著的兩者,對於購買電動機車意願影響呈現負向顯著,而比起售價,受訪者更在乎電池資費方案;
「補貼」呈現正向顯著,顯示補貼的確能促進購買意願。另外,亦有其他社會經濟變數來增加偏好模型的解釋能力,如性別、年齡、最高學歷、每月可支配所得、居住房屋型態等方案特定變數。
透過電動機車之品牌偏好模型,能夠了解使用者在意的變數,並藉由電動機車品牌發展路徑,作為燃油機車轉型之參考路徑,以促進未來我國電動機車市場發展。
英文摘要 SUMMARY
In recent years, government policy encouragement and the innovation of electric motorcycle energy supplement methods have prompted many traditional motorcycle firms to transform and invest in the electric scooters market, boosting domestic demand for electric scooters. The number of registered motorcycle in our country has exceeded 13 million. The active development of electric scooters will not only help improve air pollution and promote the transformation of the fuel-fueled motorcycle industry, but also play an important role in the international electric scooters market.There have been many studies on electric vehicles in the past, however ,most of these research efforts focused on the development of electric cars. In order to understand the transformation of the traditional fuel motorcycles industry,this study uses a stated preference approach to explore the preferences and market segmentation characteristics of Tainan , Kaohsiung and Pingtung areas for different brands of electric scooters. According to the results of this study, "price" and " battery plan " are the two most significant factors in the attribute variables, which have a significant negative impact on the willingness to buy electric scooters. By constructing a brand preference model, we can understand the variables that people care about, and we can develop industrial transformation path of the fuel-fueled motorcycle.

Key words: Electric Scooter, Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit, Transformation Path

INTRODUCTION
In recent years, government policy encouragement and the innovation of electric motorcycle energy supplement methods have prompted many traditional motorcycle firms to transform and invest in the electric scooters market, boosting domestic demand for electric scooters.There have been many studies on electric vehicles in the past, however , most of these research efforts focused on the development of electric cars. Under this circumstance, this study attempts to explore consumers' preferences for different brands of electric scooters.
Because most of the studies that explore the demand of alternative vehicles for fuel vehicles chose stated preference for analysis ,our study also use this method to understand the variables that people care about, and we can develop industrial transformation path of the fuel-fueled motorcycle.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Stated preference is used to analyze and predict choices of respondents under experimental conditions to estimate their value.In this study,we try to set different levels of attribute to design several reasonable situations, so that respondents can make choices based on their preferences in the context of these experimental situations.
The discrete choice model is based on the utility function,and it can theoretically or empirically construct people’s choice behavior when facing limited alternatives. Finally, we use Multinomial Logit Model (MNL)and Nested Multinomial Logit Model(NMNL) to fit the model, showing the effects of each variable on the utility of the four alternatives,including traditional fuel-fueled motorcycle and three different brands of electric scooters.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Among different MNL model used, MNL2, the one with generic attribute variables and alternative specific socioeconomic simultaneously shows the best result with a 0.13 ρ^2 value. According to the results of the MNL model 2, "price" and " battery plan " are the two most significant factors in the attribute variables, which have a significant negative impact on the willingness to buy electric scooter. In addition,“subsidy”also reached 5% of significance, showing moderate influence.
This study found that the three major domestic brands of motorcycle choose different transformation paths, and we try to develop industrial transformation path for the other fuel-fueled motorcycle firms.
Further, this study found out that, policy is closely related to the industry development of electric scooter.

CONCLUSION
Past research mainly focused on the development of electric cars, so this study chooses to use a stated preference model to explore the purchasing preferences of people who mainly live in Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, and Pingtung County regarding fuel-powered motorcycles and three major brands of electric scooters, mainly targeting people under 30 and 31-40 years old.This study hope to understand the future development of electric scooter industry and the transformation path of traditional fuel-fueled motorcycle firms.
論文目次 目錄
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 6
2.1 國內外電動機車發展與市場 6
2.2 國內電動機車的開發與競爭 8
2.3 使用與購買電動機車意願與現象研究 18
2.4 小結 21
第三章 研究方法 23
3.1 敘述性偏好 23
3.2 個體選擇模式 24
3.3 多項羅吉特模式 25
3.4 巢式羅吉特 27
3.5 問卷設計 28
3.6 屬性水準值設計 29
第四章 統計分析與模式校估 33
4.1 問卷調查 33
4.2 問卷基本統計 33
4.3 不相關替選方案的獨立性檢定 37
4.4 變數說明 38
4.5 結果校估 40
4.6 巢式羅吉特模型 45
4.7 選擇機率分析 45
4.8 管理意涵 47
4.9 燃油機車的轉型路徑 49
第五章 結論與建議 54
5.1 結論 54
5.2 電動機車品牌發展建議 56
5.3 研究限制與後續研究建議 57
參考文獻 58
附錄-正式問卷 62
參考文獻 一、 中文文獻
1. 工研院(2017),臺灣綠色產業深度報告。
2. 尤浚達、胡均立 (2015),「電動機車在澎湖地區推動之關鍵成功因素分析」,綠色經濟電子期刊,2015春季號第一卷第一期,頁A17-A35。
3. 交通部(2017),105年機車使用狀況調查報告。
4. 徐嘉駿、張文智(2017),「消費者的產品涉入度與價值主張認同度之關係探討-以台灣電動機車市場為例」,工業設計,135期,頁51-56。
5. 郭柏成(2010),「台灣電動機車的消費者購買行為之研究」,國立成功大學經營管理碩士學位學程碩士論文。
6. 陳宛宜(2010),「消費者購買環保電動機車屬性偏好之研究」,國立成功大學交通管理科學系碩士論文。
7. 陳宏昇(2012),「電動機車購買意願研究分析」,國立中央大學高階主管企管碩士班碩士論文。
8. 陳志誠(2018),「影響消費者購買電動機車的意願之研究-以Gogoro為例」,高苑科技大學資訊科技應用研究所碩士學位論文。
9. 莊寶鵰、陳冠宇、羅文君(2018),「顧客體驗價值對於智慧電動機車購買意願之影響」,管理資訊計算,第七卷,特刊二,頁149-158。
10. 鄭宇倫(2013),「影響民眾購買電動機車關鍵因素之研究」,國立中央大學土木工程學系碩士論文。
11. 蔡惠雯(2015),「電動機車推廣之關鍵因子分析」,國立交通大學工學院永續環境科技學程碩士論文。

二、 英文文獻
1. Glerum, A., Stankovikj, L., Thémans, M., & Bierlaire, M.(2013).Forecasting the Demand for Electric Vehicles: Accounting for Attitudes and Perceptions, Transportation Science, 48(4), 483-499.
2. Hausman, J., & McFadden, D. (1984). Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model. Econometrica, 52(5), 1219-1240.
3. Kroes, E. P., & Sheldon, R. J. (1988). Stated Preference Methods: An Introduction, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 22, 11-25.
4. Lieven, T., Mühlmeier, S., Henkel,S.,& Waller ,J.F.(2011).Who will buy electric cars? An empirical study in Germany, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 16(3), 236-243.
5. Link, C., Raich, U., Sammer, G.,& Stark, J. (2012).Modeling Demand for Electric Cars - A Methodical Approach, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 48, 1958-1970.
6. Lee, T. C., Huang, C. C.& Lai, M.P. (2016), The user preferences for new energy motorcycles in Taiwan, 2016 International Conference on Applied System Innovation (ICASI), Okinawa, 2016, pp. 1-4, doi: 10.1109/ICASI.2016.7539863.
7. Li, W., Long, R., Chen, H., &Geng, J. (2017).A review of factors influencing consumer intentions to adopt battery electric vehicles. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 78, 318-328.
8. Liao, F., Molin,E.,& van Wee, B.(2017). Consumer preferences for electric vehicles: a literature review.Transport Reviews, 37(3), 252–275
9. McFadden, D. (1974). The measurement of urban travel demand, Journal of Public Economics, 3(4), 303-328.
10. Rudolph, C.(2016). How may incentives for electric cars affect purchase decisions? Transport Policy, 52, 113-120.
11. Sierzchula, W., Bakker, S., Maat, K., & van Wee, B. (2014).The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption. Energy Policy, 68, 183-194.
12. Sovacool, B. K., Abrahamse, W., Zhang, L., & Ren, J. Z. (2019).Pleasure or profit? Surveying the purchasing intentions of potential electric vehicle adopters in China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 124, 69-81.
13. Taguchi, G., & Konishi, S. (1987). Taguchi methods, orthogonal arrays and linear graphs, tools for quality engineering. Dearborn, MI: American supplier Institute. 35-38.
14. Yang, C. J. (2010).Launching strategy for electric vehicles: Lessons from China and Taiwan.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(5), 831-834.
15. Zhou, X., Sheng, N.,& Liang, K. P. (2016), Factors Affecting Consumer's Choice for Electric Motorcycles: A Case In Macau, Environmental Science and Sustainable Development, 356-360.

三、網路文獻
1. 交通部統計資料,擷取日期:2019年3月20日,
https://stat.motc.gov.tw/mocdb/stmain.jsp?sys=100
2. 中華民國統計資訊網,擷取日期:2019年3月20日,
https://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4
3. 經濟部工業局,擷取日期:2019年7月23日,
https://www.moeaidb.gov.tw/ctlr?PRO=idx2015
4. 電動機車產業網,擷取日期:2019年12月6日,
https://www.lev.org.tw/default.asp
5. 行政院數位國家創新經濟推動小組,擷取日期:2019年4月5日,https://www.digi.ey.gov.tw/
6. 經濟部能源局,擷取日期:2020年5月23日,
https://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/
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