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系統識別號 U0026-1707201612564400
論文名稱(中文) 以報童問題探討某一LED 磊晶廠之原物料最適訂購量
論文名稱(英文) An Optimal Ordering Quantity of Sapphire in the Newsboy Problem - Case Study of a LED Plant
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class)
學年度 104
學期 2
出版年 105
研究生(中文) 杜玫寬
研究生(英文) Mei-Kuan Tu
學號 R37031207
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 67頁
口試委員 指導教授-王泰裕
口試委員-陳梁軒
口試委員-林君維
口試委員-盧浩鈞
中文關鍵字 報童問題  單期季節性產品  最佳訂購量  需求預側 
英文關鍵字 newsboy problem  a single period of goods  forecast of the demand 
學科別分類
中文摘要 發光二極體(Light Emitting Diode, LED) 產業近年競爭激烈,中國政府對於扶持LED產業不遺餘力,也投入了大量的資源去補貼提升LED中國國產比率。而目前中國已經是全球最大的LED照明生產基地。國內企業唯有透過降低成本來爭取更大的降價空間,為使公司擁有更高的優勢,藍寶石基板為發光二極體磊晶製程中貴重之原物料,探討藍寶石基板訂購量決策問題,為本研究首要之目標。LED 產業因競爭激烈,製程技術提升快速,產品週期也隨之縮短,預估平均生命週期約半年,經半年後產品即過時折價,雖無品質疑慮,公司政策將其過期產品報廢處理,當期即認列生產損失。本研究主要目的是針對藍寶石基板需求量服從常態分配時,運用需求量的歷史資料,以傳統報童模型做為理論基礎,並考慮市場不確定性,增加隨機變數市場趨勢變因,發展出其數學模型,在期望成本最小的目標下,對最佳訂購量進行合理的估計。利用實際歷史需求量推估市場趨勢變因值,並驗證市場趨勢變因其機率分佈為常態,另外,模擬市場趨勢變因為其他二種不同機率分佈(均勻及指數),以市場趨勢變因機率分佈服從常態、均勻和指數三種不同情況,分別進行求解。由於市場趨勢變因服從均勻和指數分佈無法得出有效之解析解,故利用數值分析方法中的牛頓法進行求解,以歷史需求量進行驗證,分析結果顯示,若模型未加入市場趨勢變因,最適訂購量其MAPE值為14.80%,模型加入三種不同分佈之市場趨勢變因後,MAPE值降低5~7 %,有效地提升模型預測能力。於敏感度分析中分別調整缺貨成本估提的倍率以及市場趨勢變因平均值、標準差,影響模型最適訂購量的參數為缺貨成本及市場趨勢變因。
本研究透過實例驗證其數學模型,並將模型執行敏感度分析觀察參數如何影響訂購量及成本,提供予存貨管控者一個參考依據。
英文摘要 In recent years, the light-emitting diode (LED) industry has been in strong competition around the world. Due to the importance of magnifying the presence of the Chinese LED industry around the world, the Chinese government invested large amounts of resources into the industry. However, domestic businesses can only maximize profit by reducing costs of manufacturing LEDs. During the manufacturing of LEDs, sapphires, a precious and expensive raw material, is used in the epitaxial process. As LED manufacturing methods improve, the estimated mean life cycle of the product will decrease accordingly. However, if the product isn’t sold within the estimated mean life cycle, the product is discarded which is then regarded as an over-stocking cost. On the contrary, if the quantity isn’t met, is then regarded as an under-stocking cost. Thus, our goal is to determine the optimal order quantity of sapphire substrates for LED manufacturing. Many research have already made use of the newsboy model to discuss under-stocking and over-stocking cost problems. However, in our research, we included market interference in our demand distribution analysis, which is not found in other similar studies. Without market interferences, it is much more difficult for predictive data to match the actual data. Because we wanted our predictions to better conform to the actual conditions, we set the demand history as a normal distribution, and three different interferences: normal, uniform, and exponential distributions. In addition, we also conduct sensitivity analysis on the mathematical models.
論文目次 摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 vi
目錄 vii
表目錄 ix
圖目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究範圍 4
第四節 研究假設 5
第五節 研究流程 5
第六節 論文架構 6
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 LED 產業概論 8
第二節 LED 產業供應鏈 9
第三節 報童問題之文獻 11
第四節 季節性產品之需求預測 17
第五節 小結 18
第三章 以報童模式建立藍寶石基板需求模型 19
第一節 問題描述 19
第二節 模型假設及符號定義 21
第三節 模型設計及推導 22
第四節 小結 27
第四章 實例驗證及分析 28
第一節 歷史需求量之分佈驗證 28
第二節 市場趨勢變因之推估與分佈驗證 32
第三節 模型驗證求解 36
第四節 敏感度分析 42
第五節 小結 51
第五章 結論 53
第一節 研究結果 53
第二節 未來研究方向 54
參考文獻 55
【中文文獻】 55
【英文文獻】 57
附錄A 61
附錄B 62
附錄C 66
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黃允成(2001),「報童模式在機率性需求與數量折扣下最適訂購量與訂購策略之研究」,工業工程學刋,第十八卷,第六期,43-52頁,台北,台灣。
李智民(2001),「需求不確定性對單期季節性產品完全資訊期望價值之影響」,台大管理論叢,第十二卷第一期,229-248頁,台北,台灣。
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經濟部能源局(2014),「能源產業技術白皮書」,台北,台灣:經濟部能源局。
LED Inside(2015),http://www.ledinside.com.tw/,搜尋日期:2015年10月1日。
產業價值資訊平台(2015),http://ic.tpex.org.tw/,搜尋日期:2015 年10 月1日。
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