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系統識別號 U0026-1706201615351600
論文名稱(中文) 總體經濟因素、食安議題與美國量化寬鬆政策對台灣連鎖便利商店股價影響
論文名稱(英文) The impact of macroeconomic variables,food safety issue and U.S. QE on Taiwanese convenience store stock price
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 企業管理學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Business Administration
學年度 104
學期 2
出版年 105
研究生(中文) 史可維
研究生(英文) Ko-Wei Shih
學號 R46031206
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 39頁
口試委員 指導教授-康信鴻
共同指導教授-黃瀞瑩
口試委員-莊雙喜
口試委員-謝惠璟
中文關鍵字 便利超商  股價  美國量化寬鬆政策  食安問題 
英文關鍵字 convenience stores  stock price  U.S.QE  food safety issue 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究運用複回歸模型探討國內外之總體經濟因素與重大事件對於我國便利商店產業股價之影響。我國便利超商產業有高度勞力密集、商品與民生生活高度相關且專注在內需市場的特性。基於此些因素,本研究所採用的應變數除了便利超商每月營收外,因應勞力密集的特性,選用國內基本工資作為變數。並採用總體經濟因素作為變數,檢驗此類國際間的總體經濟指標是否會影響此少數寡占的內需市場。此類變數囊括了:台幣實質匯率、央行重貼現利率、消費者物價指數以及石油價格。與民生相關的重大事件則採用了台灣近幾年爆發的食安問題:塑化劑事件以及毒澱粉事件作為虛擬變數。此兩起食品安全問題,大幅度增加了國人對外食安全的顧慮。另外,本研究也採用了與美國量化寬鬆政策,作為國際經濟重大事件的變數。
本實證採用之統計模型結果顯示:廠商本身的每月營收與基本工資的調整在實證上對超商股價走勢沒有影響。國內因素的毒澱粉食安問題、新台幣實質匯率;國際因素的石油價格與三輪的美國量化寬鬆實施並沒有與兩家上市上櫃的便利超商股票價格有影響。國內因素的消費者物價指數對便利超商股價有正向影響,而塑化劑事件的食安問題與央行折現利率對便利超商股價有反向影響。總體變數對7-11便利超商與全家便利超商之股價對變數的影響方向大致相同。
英文摘要 This study examines the effects of domestic and international macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of chain convenience stores in Taiwan. The convenience store industry is labor-intensive, oriented toward the sale of daily necessities and has a high domestic demand. Based on the labor-intensive feature, this study takes minimum wage and monthly revenue as independent variables; based on the daily necessities feature, this study takes macroeconomic factors to examine whether domestic and global economics factors have effects on the domestic-demand industry. These macroeconomics variables include the discount rate of the central bank of R.O.C., real exchange rate, CPI, and oil price. The dummy variables are food scandals in Taiwan, the plasticizer event and the poisonous starch event. Food scandals have given rise to wide concern for customers because of food safety issues. In addition, three rounds of U.S. Quantitative Easing are also regarded as independent variables as well. The results suggested that monthly revenue and minimum wage had no effects on convenience store prices. As for the domestic economic factors, the real exchange rate and the poisonous starch food scandal event did not have effects on the stock prices of convenience stores. Global economics factors like the U.S. QE and oil price were not found to have an effect on the stock prices of convenience stores in Taiwan. However, the consumer price index (CPI) was found to have a positive impact on the stock prices of convenience stores in Taiwan. The discount rate and the plasticizer food scandal had negative effects on the stock prices of convenience stores in Taiwan.
Keywords: Convenience stores, Stock price, U.S. QE, Food safety issue
論文目次 摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
Contents iv
List of table vi
List of Figures vii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research motivation and purpose 1
1.2 Taiwanese convenience chain store industry 3
1.2.1 Brief introduction of convenience store 3
1.2.2 The major 7-Eleven convenience store events 4
1.2.3 The major Family-Mart convenience store events 6
1.3 Research limitations 7
1.3.1 Reinvestment of the 7-Eleven and Family Mart 7
1.3.2 Traditional grocery and convenience stores do not go public 8
Chapter 2 Literature Review 9
2.1 Operating status of Convenience stores in Taiwan 9
2.1.1The effect of revenue on stock price 9
2.1.2The effect of minimum wage on stock price 10
2.2The effect of Taiwan’s economy on stock price 12
2.2.1The effect of discount rate on stock price 12
2.2.2The effect of the CPI on stock price 13
2.2.3The effect of food scandals on stock prices 13
2.2.4 The effect of real exchange rate on stock prices 14
2.3The effect of global economic status on stock prices 15
2.3.1The effect of oil price on stock price 15
2.3.2 The effect of the U.S. QE policy on stock prices 15
2.4 Research contributions 16
Chapter 3 Research Design 18
3.1Research process 18
3.2Research variables 19
3.2.1 Variables 19
3.2.2 Dummy variables 19
3.3 Initial regression model 20
Chapter 4 Empirical Model 22
4.1 Unit Root Test 22
4.2 Multicollinearity Test 24
4.3 Heteroskedasticity Test 26
4.4 Autocorrelation Test 27
4.5Final Regression Model 28
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 32
5.1 Research conclusions 32
5.1.1 The effect of monthly revenue and minimum wage on stock prices 32
5.1.2 The effect of real exchange rate, the CPI , and discount rate on stock prices 32
5.1.3 The effect of the oil price, and the U.S. QE on stock prices 33
5.1.4 The effect of the food scandals on stock prices 34
5.2 Research suggestions 34
Reference 35
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