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系統識別號 U0026-1607201318215900
論文名稱(中文) 運用Cox比例風險模型建立顧客忠誠度指標:以智慧型手機通訊產業為例
論文名稱(英文) Apply Cox proportional hazard model to create customer loyalty index with case study of smartphone service industry
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 黃冠霖
研究生(英文) Guan-Lin, Huang
學號 R36991268
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 65頁
口試委員 指導教授-張裕清
口試委員-王惠嘉
口試委員-蔡清志
中文關鍵字 忠誠度指標  Cox比例風險模型  智慧型手機 
英文關鍵字 Loyalty index  Cox proportional hazard model  Smartphone 
學科別分類
中文摘要 企業營運的目的在於運用有限的資源獲得利潤,顧客是企業的利潤來源,忠誠的顧客能帶來穩定的收益,而企業開發新客戶的成本遠高於留住原有顧客,如何建立顧客忠誠度指標並藉此管理顧客忠誠度為現今企業的重大課題。本研究藉由存活分析方法中的Cox比例風險模型,整合顧客的預後因子與消費行為、服務品質、顧客滿意度與轉換成本等問項衡量顧客流失機率,計算每位顧客相對於參考基準點發生風險的比率,建立顧客忠誠度指標,定義事件為顧客流失,以智慧型手機通訊產業為例,進行小規模實證研究。研究結果發現行動上網連線品質、預期與現實是否一致、顧客再次惠顧的意向以及顧客的年齡會影響顧客流失事件的發生,依照風險比率將顧客分組與排序,管理者能藉由顧客忠誠度指標的排序瞭解目前顧客忠誠度狀況。
英文摘要 The goal of the enterprise operation is to earn profit under limited resources. Customers are the source of the profit and loyal customers can bring stable income. Since the cost of finding new customers is much higher than retaining the existing customers, creating a customer loyalty index and then managing customer loyalty have become a major issue for business nowadays.
In this study, we propose a customer loyalty index by Cox proportional hazards model. Our method integrates customer prognostic factors, consumer behavior, service quality, customer satisfaction, and switching costs into our model to evaluate the probability of loss of customers. Let the loss of customer as the event, we calculate hazard ratio for each customer respect to a reference point. Our method is applied to a case from the smartphone service industry. The results showed that mobile connection quality, the gap between expectations and reality, the customer re-patronage intentions, and the age of customer may affect events of loss of customers. Finally, according to hazards ratio to group and sort the customers, the management will have a better view of current distribution of customer loyalty.
論文目次 目錄
摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究對象與範圍 3
1.4 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 顧客忠誠度 5
2.1.1 消費行為 6
2.1.2 服務品質 7
2.1.3 顧客滿意度 9
2.1.4 轉換成本 10
2.2 存活分析 12
2.3 Cox比例風險模型 18
2.4 忠誠度指標 21
2.5 小結 23
第三章 建立忠誠度指標方法 24
3.1 建立參考點 25
3.1.1 眾數法 25
3.1.2 重心法 26
3.1.3 比例風險中心法 27
3.2 吉尼係數判定風險比率分配與經驗累積分配圖 27
3.3 建立信賴區間進行分組 29
3.4 顧客忠誠度指標表 31
第四章 實證研究 32
4.1 問卷設計與資料來源 32
4.1.1 問卷設計 32
4.1.2 資料來源 36
4.2 研究假設與限制 36
4.3 樣本結構 37
4.4 Cox比例風險模型 38
4.4.1 Kaplan-Meier存活曲線 38
4.4.2 信度分析 40
4.4.3 建立Cox比例風險模型 42
4.5 建立顧客忠誠度指標 44
4.5.1 眾數法 44
4.5.2 重心法 47
4.5.3 比例風險中心法 49
4.5.4 顧客忠誠度指標表 51
第五章 結論與未來研究建議 53
5.1 結論 53
5.2 未來研究建議 54
參考文獻 56
附錄 63
表目錄
表 2-1 服務品質缺口表 8
表 2-2 轉換成本構面發展表 11
表 2-3 常用預警模型與使用時機和條件表 19
表 3-1 信賴區間分組舉例表 30
表 3-2 顧客忠誠度指標舉例表 31
表 4-1 忠誠度構面變數表 34
表 4-2 Log rank檢定表 38
表 4-3 各時間點存活率變化表 39
表 4-4 相關係數矩陣表 40
表 4-5 項目刪除時Cronbach’s α表-1 41
表 4-6 項目刪除時Cronbach’s α表-2 41
表 4-7 各步驟AIC變化與選取之變數表 42
表 4-8 Schoenfeld殘差分析P值表 44
表 4-9 建模組顧客分類人數表-眾數法 46
表 4-10 建模組顧客分類流失表-眾數法 46
表 4-11 建模組顧客分類人數表-重心法 48
表 4-12 建模組顧客分類流失表-重心法 48
表 4-13 建模組顧客分類人數表-比例風險中心法 50
表 4-14 建模組顧客分類流失表-比例風險中心法 50
表 4-15 驗證組顧客分類人數表-重心法 51
表 4-16 驗證組顧客分類流失表-重心法 51
表 4-17 驗證組各家業者顧客忠誠度指標表 52
圖目錄
圖1-1 行動上網業務市佔率圓餅圖 3
圖1-2 研究流程圖 4
圖2-1 資料設限型態圖 14
圖2-2 Reichheld推薦度衡量分數圖 15
圖3-1 羅倫茲曲線圖 28
圖3-2 經驗累積分配圖 29
圖4-1 中華電信、遠傳電信與台灣大哥大Kaplan-Meier估計存活曲線圖 39
圖4-2 Schoenfeld殘差圖 43
圖4-3 建模組風險比率經驗累積分配圖-眾數法 45
圖4-4 建模組風險比率經驗累積分配圖-重心法 47
圖4-5 建模組風險比率經驗累積分配圖-比例風險中心法 49
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