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系統識別號 U0026-1606202021101400
論文名稱(中文) 影響台灣房價的重要總體變數:以台北市、台中市、高雄市為例
論文名稱(英文) Important Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Housing Price in Taiwan : Evidence from Taipei City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融研究所
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Finance
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 李沚霖
研究生(英文) Jhih-Lin Lee
學號 R86071076
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 28頁
口試委員 指導教授-林軒竹
口試委員-梁少懷
口試委員-王澤世
中文關鍵字 台灣房價  總體變數  貨幣供給量 
英文關鍵字 Taiwan housing price  macoeconomic variable  money supply 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文主要探討影響台灣房價的重要總體變數,以台北市、台中市及高雄市房價為例,並且提供有關當局可以利用這些總體政策工具來對房市做一個調整。研究期間為2001年到2018年共72筆樣本資料,使用迴歸分析檢驗房貸利率、通貨膨脹率、營建工程指數、國民生產毛額、貨幣供給量(M1B)、股價指數六個變數對取樣城市房價的影響。研究結果顯示貨幣供給量和利率在三個樣本城市皆呈現正向顯著影響;營建工程指數只對台北市和台中市呈現正向顯著影響;通膨率僅對高雄市房價呈現正向顯著影響;股價指數僅對高雄市房價呈現負向顯著影響。由結果可發現當有關當局要透過總體變數做房價調整時,會對房價造成相反影響,也僅會對特定城市房價造成影響。
英文摘要 This paper focuses on the important macroeconomic variables that affect housing prices in Taiwan, and taking Taipei City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City as examples. It provides relevant authorities that can use these macroeconomic policy tools to make adjustments to the housing market. The sample period was from 2001 to 2018 with a total of 72 sample. I regressed the three sample cities’ housing price with construction costs, mortgage rates, money supply (M1B), stock index, and inflation rates. The research results show that the money supply and the interest rate have a significantly positive impact in the three sample cities. The construction cost variable has a significantly positive impact on housing price of Taipei City and Taichung City. The inflation rate only have significantly positive impact on housing prices in Kaohsiung City. The stock index only have significantly negative impact on housing prices in Kaohsiung City. From these results, these macroeconomic policy tools will have an opposite effect on housing price, and only affect house prices in specific cities when the relevant authorities want to adjust house prices through macroeconomic variables.
論文目次 CONTENTS
摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 III
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review and Hypothesis Development 3
2.1 Interest Rate 4
2.2 Inflation Rate 4
2.3 Construction Cost 5
2.4 GDP 6
2.5 Money Supply 6
2.6 Stock Index 7
3. Methodology 8
3.1 Sample Selection 8
3.2Model Development 9
4. Results 12
4.1 Sample Figures and Trend Description 12
4.2 Descriptive Statistics 16
4.3 Main Results 18
5. Conclusion 23
6. Reference 25
6.1 English Reference 25
6.2 Website Reference 28

參考文獻 6.1 English Reference

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6.2 Website Reference

中央銀行(108.5.2),「有關新台幣匯率政策之說明」,檢自https://www.cbc.gov.tw/public/Attachment/9521833971.pdf
中央銀行(108.6.20),「央行理監事會後記者會參考資料」,檢自https://www.cbc.gov.tw/public/Attachment/9822975471.pdf
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