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系統識別號 U0026-1508201920520800
論文名稱(中文) 援助的詛咒?外國援助與內戰
論文名稱(英文) Aid Curse? Foreign Aid and Civil War
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 政治學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Political Science
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生(中文) 王筱晴
研究生(英文) Siao-Cing Wang
學號 U16064028
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 100頁
口試委員 指導教授-平思寧
口試委員-王奕婷
口試委員-陳宗巖
中文關鍵字 內戰  外國援助  經濟憤恨 
英文關鍵字 Civil War  Foreign Aid  Economic grievance 
學科別分類
中文摘要 至今,援助對於受援國的影響存在著正反面意見,甚至有研究認為援助會造成受援國國內的不穩定與動亂。故在援助效果不定的情況下,本研究希望透過「混合研究法」探討援助對於內戰爆發的影響,不僅針對援助與內戰數據進行量化分析,亦透過個案的探討(烏干達和阿富汗)去了解援助與內戰的關係。本研究的資料區間為西元1960-2017年的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series and cross-section data),包含195個國家,結果變數為內戰爆發與否的二元變數,解釋變數為援助金額,故採用「二元對數勝算模型」(binary logit regression model)進行分析。研究發現,無論是何種類別的援助,對於內戰爆發都有顯著的正向影響,亦即援助越多,內戰爆發的可能性越高,雖然中國援助因為樣本過少而無法檢驗出其與內戰爆發的顯著關係,但透過相關文獻與資料的探討,仍可發現援助帶來的內戰風險。而本研究認為援助影響內戰爆發的背後機制,是因為援助加劇了受援國國內的經濟憤恨,進而誘發內戰。因此,本研究建議,援助者應掌握援助國政經局勢以及地方政治的運作,並訂定完善的懲罰與監督機制,另外,亦可跟其他援助者合作,建立透明化的援助框架或是進行資訊分享,才能讓援助發揮其正面效用。
英文摘要 To date, there have been positive and negative argument on the impact of aid on recipient countries. Some studies have even suggested that aid can cause instability and unrest in recipient countries. Therefore, in the case of uncertain effects, the study hopes to explore the impact of aid on the outbreak of civil war through the "mixed method". It not only conducts quantitative analysis on data, but also through case studies (Uganda and Afghanistan) to understand the relationship between civil wars and aid. The data interval for this study is time-series and cross-section data from 1960 to 2017, including 195 countries. The independent variable is amount of assistance, so the “binary logit regression model” is used for analysis. The study found that no matter what kind of assistance, there is a significant positive relationship on the civil war. The more aid, the higher the probability of outbreak of civil wars. This study believes that the mechanism behind the impact of aid on the outbreak of civil war is because aid has aggravated the economic grievance in the recipient countries and thus induced civil wars. Therefore, this study suggests that donors should be familiar with the political and economic situation of the recipient countries and the operation of local politics, and then set up a comprehensive punishment and supervision mechanism. In addition, they can cooperate with each other to establish a transparent aid framework or share information in order to allow aid to achieve its positive effect.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 過去研究概述 11
第三節 研究問題 13
第四節 研究方法 14
第五節 研究架構 16
第六節 預期結果與貢獻 18
第二章 外國援助與內戰的爆發 20
第一節 文獻回顧 20
第二節 內戰起因 27
第三節 援助與經濟憤恨 32
第三章 援助與內戰─實證分析 50
第一節 模型 50
第二節 變數 53
第三節 統計結果 58
第四章 個案分析 75
第一節 中國援助 69
第二節 烏干達 75
第三節 阿富汗 81
第五章 結論與建議 86
第一節 研究限制 86
第二節 研究發現與結論 88
第三節 未來方向與建議 91
參考文獻 95
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