進階搜尋


下載電子全文  
系統識別號 U0026-1508201717412800
論文名稱(中文) 台灣各產業老年人延遲退休對於年輕人之影響
論文名稱(英文) The Impacts of the Delayed Retirement by Older Workers on Younger Workers among Taiwan’s Industries
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生(中文) 張致遠
研究生(英文) Chin-Yuan Chang
學號 U56041052
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 52頁
口試委員 指導教授-林常青
口試委員-廖珮如
口試委員-王富美
口試委員-張銘仁
中文關鍵字 勞動合成理論  人口高齡化  老年人延遲退休  年輕人就業比例  固定效果估計  工具變數 
英文關鍵字 Lump of labor  Population aging  The delayed retirement  The employment proportion of young people  Fixed effect model  Instrumental variable 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文旨在探討台灣各產業當中老年人延遲退休對於年輕人的影響。受惠於科技進步所帶來的醫療品質提升,台灣國人的平均壽命由民國 93 年的 75 歲增加至民國 104 年的 80 歲,同時死亡率也呈現大幅度的下降,但是台灣社會卻慢慢浮現了一大隱憂─人口高齡化問題。由於人口高齡化的影響,勞動市場裡老年就業者的比例不斷上升,於此同時,年輕人的就業是否會受到波及,即是本文所探討的核心重點。
過去文獻探討老年人延遲退休對於年輕人的影響多以國家為整體作探討,但其中忽略了以產業別的角度觀察老年人退休之影響。由於各產業之間的就業結構各自存在差異,彼此間的專業技術也各有所長。其次,不同性別在各產業別下的工作表現也無法一概而論,因此過往文獻的結論不一定適用於各個產業別。
本研究使用民國 93 年至民國 104年度人力資源運用調查進行實證。結果顯示,大部分的產業別裡老年人延遲退休確實會增加年輕人的就業機會,並且不論男性或女性皆能受益於老年人延遲退休所帶來的正面影響。整體而言,實證結果說明了勞動市場的職位並非為固定數,而是會隨著勞動供需的調整作出反應。
在各職業與產業上,老年人延遲退休所帶來的效果不一,如藍領階層當中老年人延遲退休對於男性員工的影響較大;而在重工業裡女性工作者較能受惠於老年人延遲退休的正面效果。針對各產業的異質性,本文提供了政策建議。
英文摘要 Because of advancements in the quality of medical care, the average life expectancy has increased substantially. Consequently, the aging population results in an increase in the proportion of older workers in the labor market; this can affect the employment situation of younger people.

The goal of this study is to explore the effect of delayed retirement of older workers on younger workers among Taiwan’s industries.The effect of delayed retirement on younger people has been discussed in the context of the country; however, investigating this effect in the context of Taiwan’s industries has been neglected. The employment structures of different industries are distinct, because each has unique competencies and strengths, the conclusions reached in the literature do not necessarily apply to all industries.

In this study, we employ annual surveys on Taiwan’s human resources from 2004 to 2015. Our empirical results indicate that in most industries, delayed retirement increases employment opportunities for younger people and that both women and men can benefit from delayed retirement. The empirical results reveal that the number of people in employment is not fixed, but changes with variations in labor supply and demand.

In particular, delayed retirement of male blue-collar workers has the greatest effect; in heavy industry, female workers can benefit from delayed retirement. Because of the heterogeneity of each industry, this paper provides policy recommendations.
論文目次 摘要 i
英文延伸摘要 ii
誌謝 vii
目錄 viii
表目錄 ix
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 2
1.3 研究議題 3
第2章 文獻回顧 4
2.1 老人延遲退休的影響 4
2.2 探討外來勞工是否會排擠本國勞工之工作機會 5
2.3 各國與老人延遲退休之實證文獻 6
2.4 可能原因的探討 8
第3章 資料分析與研究方法 11
3.1 資料分析 11
3.2 研究方法 15
3.2.1 弱工具變數檢定(Weak Instrument Test) 17
3.2.2 過度認定限制檢定(Over-identifying Restrictions Test) 18
3.2.3 係數檢定 18
第4章 實證結果 20
4.1 就業比例分析 20
4.1.1 情境一 20
4.1.2 情境二 27
4.1.3 情境三 34
4.1.4 小結 41
第5章 結論與建議 42
5.1 結論 42
5.2 政策建議 43
5.3 研究限制與未來研究方向 44
參考文獻 45
附錄 48



參考文獻 張川川與趙耀輝 (2014),「老年人對於年輕人就業的關係:來自中國的經驗證 據」,《世界經濟》,5,74-90。
Acemoglu, D. (2002), “Technical Change, Inequality, and Labor Market,” Journal of Economic Literature, 40(1), 7–72.
Aguila, E., O. Attanasio, and C. Meghir (2011), “Changes in Consumption at Retirement: Evidence from Panel Data, ” Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3), 1094-1099.
Aubert, P., E. Caroli, and M. Roger (2006), “New Technologies, Organisation and Age: Firm-Level Evidence,” The Economic Journal, 116(509), 73–93.
Banks, J., R. Blundell, A. Bozio, and C. Emmerson (2009), “Disability, Health and Retirement: The United Kingdom Case,” In: NBER Book Series - International Social Security, N., 17049
Barth, M.C., W. McNaught, and P. Rizzi (1993), “Corporations and the Aging Workforce,”In P. H. Mirvis (eds) Building the Competitive Workforce: Investing in Human Capital for Corporate Success, New York : John Wiley and Sons, 156 – 200.
Battistin, E., A. Brugiavini, E. Rettore and G. Weber (2009), “The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from A Regression Discontinuity Approach,” American Economic Review, 99(5), 2209-2226.
Borjas, G. J. (2006), “Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration,” Journal of Human Resources, 41(2), 221-258.
Brandon, E. (2009), “Delayed Retirement May Mean Fewer Job Openings,” U.S. News and World Report, September 3. Available at: http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2009/09/03/delayed-retirement-may-mean-fewer-job-openings.html (viewed: May 20, 2017)
Card, D. and T. Lemieux (2001), “Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis,”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 705–746.
Card, D. (2005), “Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?” The Economic Journal, 115(507), 300-323.
Cutler, D.M., J.B. Liebman, and S. Smyth (2006), “How Fast Should the Social Security Eligibility Age Rise?” NBER Retirement Research Center Working Paper, NB04-05.
Dalen, V., P. Hendrik and K. Henkens (2002), “Early Retirement Reform: Can it and Will it Work?” Ageing and Society, 22(2), 209–231.
Dickler, J. (2010), “Battle Brews Over Hourly Jobs,” CNN Money, February 2. Available at: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/economy/hourly_jobs/ (viewed: May 20, 2017) VirtualDVD
Eichhorst, W., T. Boeri, A. D. Coen, V. Galasso, M. Kendzia and N. Steiber (2014), “How to Combine the Entry of Young People in the Labour Market with the Retention of Older Workers?” IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, 3(19), 1-23.
Fetter, F. A. (1913), “Population or Prosperity: Annual Address of the President,” The
American Economic Review, 3(1), 5-19.
Fitzenberger, B. and K. Kohn (2006),“Skill Wage Premia, Employment, and Cohort Effects: Are Workers in Germany All of the Same Type,”IZA Discussion Paper.
Fetter, F. A. (1913), “Population or Prosperity: Annual Address of the President,” The American Economic Review, 3(1), 5-19.
Gandel, S. (2010), “In a Tough Job Market, Teens Are Suffering Most,” Time, January 18. Available at:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1952331-1,00.html (viewed: May 21, 2017)
Greenhouse, S. (2009), “Young and Old Are Facing Off for Jobs,” New York Times, March 20. Available at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/business/21age.html?_r=1 (viewed: May 21, 2017)
Greenwood, M. J. and J. M. McDowell (1986), “The Factor Market Consequences of U.S. Immigration,” Journal of Economic Literature, 24(4), 1738-1772.
Gruber, J. and J. D. Kubik (1997), “Disability Insurance Rejection Rates and the Labor Supply of Older Workers,” Journal of Public Economics, 64(1), 1-23.
Gruber, J. and K. Milligan (2010), “Do Elderly Workers Substitute for Younger Workers in the United States?” In: J. Gruber, and D. A. Wise (eds) Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 345-360.
Haider, S. J. and M. S. Jr. (2007), “Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(2), 247-264.
Hamermesh, D.S. (2001), “Older Workers in the Coming Labor “Shortage”: Implications of Labour Demand, ” Paper Prepared for the Roundtable on the Demand for Older Workers, The Brookings Institution, March .
Hebbink, G. E. (1994), “Production Factor Substitution and Employment by Age Group,” Economic Modeling, 1994, 10(3), 217-224.
Hunt, J. and L. F. Katz, (1998), “Hours Reductions as Work-Sharing,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 1, 339-381.
Hurd, M. and S. Rohwedder (2008), “The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 13929.
Kalwij, A., A. Kapteyn, and K. De Vos (2009), “Early Retirement and Employment of the Young,” De Economist, 158(4), 341–359.
Kantarci, T. and A. V. Soest (2008), “Gradual Retirement: Preferences and Limitation,” De Economist, 156(2), 113–144.
LaLonde, R. J. and R. H. Topel (1991), “Labor Market Adjustments to Increased Immigration,” In: J. M. Abowd, and R. B. Freeman (eds) Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market Chicago, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 167-200.
Li, H., X. Shi, and B. Wu (2015), “The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 105(5), 437-441.
Mayhew, H. (1864), “Skilled and Unskilled Labour,” London Labour and the London Poor: The Condition and Earnings of Those that Will Work, Cannot Work, and Will Not Work, 3, 231-241.
McGarry, K. (2004), “Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?” Journal of Human Resources, 39(4), 624-648.
Messe, P.J., M. Bia, and R. Leombruni (2010), “Young-in Old-out: A New Evaluation,” TEPP Working Paper, WP N., 2010-14.
Munnell, A. H., and A. Y. Wu (2012), “Will Delayed Retirement by the Baby Boomers Lead to Higher Unemployment Among Younger Workers?” Boston College Center for Retirement Research Working Paper, WP N., 2012-22.
Mutikani, L. (2010), “Older, Young U.S. Workers Jostle for Scarce Jobs,” Reuters, April 7. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63646920100407 (viewed: May 20, 2017)
Peri, G. and C. Sparber. (2009), “Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(3), 135-169.
Sato, K. (1967), “A Two-Level Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution Production Function,” Review of Economic Studies, 34(2), 201–218.
Schloss, D. F. (1891), “Why Working-Men Dislike Piece-Work,” Economic Review, 1(3), 311-326.
Smith, S. (2006), “The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle and Involuntary Early Retirement: Evidence from the British Household Survey,” The Economic Journal, 116(510), 130-148.
Walker, T. (2007), “Why Economists Dislike a Lump of Labor,” Review of Social Economy, 65(3), 279-291.
論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2017-08-28起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2017-08-28起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw