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系統識別號 U0026-1507202016205700
論文名稱(中文) 利用類神經網路模型進行彰濱海域的短期離岸風速預測
論文名稱(英文) Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Neural Network Models for Chanbin Offshore Area
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 機械工程學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Mechanical Engineering
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 孫億昇
研究生(英文) Yee-Sheng Soon
電子信箱 n16075023@mail.ncku.edu.tw
學號 N16075023
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 105頁
口試委員 指導教授-林大惠
口試委員-蔡英聖
口試委員-余政達
口試委員-蘇威智
中文關鍵字 風速  小波頻譜  長短期記憶模型  風速預測 
英文關鍵字 Wind energy  Wavelet Spectrum  Long Short-Term Memory  Wind Forecasting 
學科別分類
中文摘要 2016年,台灣政府發佈了一個新能源政策,為求期望台灣能在2025年成為一個非核家園。台灣西半部因地勢的關係在秋冬季有著強而穩定的東北季風,因此離岸風力在替補核電廠停運之後的能源缺口上,成為了萬眾矚目的焦點。風力發電最大的問題在於風的不穩定性。一個好的短期預測有利於風機的控制並產生更大的效能,也能減少此不穩定性對電網產生的傷害。本研究將針對台電氣象觀測塔2017至2019年的風速風向觀測資料進行基本的分析,並藉由分析結果了解預測模型的有效性。本次研究中,主要以類神經網路模型的方式進行短時多步的風速預測,並藉由改變模型參數的方式優化模型。
數據分析的部分分為:趨勢分析,統計分析以及頻譜分析三個部分。趨勢分析以時序圖以及風瑰圖帶出三年風速風向的趨勢。統計分析的部分則在於以月份以及季節的統計值探討每年的異同。最後再以小波轉換得出的頻譜了解各個短尺度時間段的不同情況風場的特徵。在模型建立好之後,除了會進行一般的模型評估之外,也會藉由先前的分析結果作進一步的理解預測產生巨大誤差的原因。並給予建議。本次所使用的類神經預測模型為目前較為廣泛使用的LSTM模型。基於對模型演算法的認識有限,本次參數的矯正方向則傾向於非模型架構的部分。力求從實際氣候資料上得到較高的準確值。
最後,本次研究在最後發現,每年春、秋、及冬季的風況大同小異。而夏季則容易受到不定期的西南季風以及颱風的侵襲影響。秋冬的風速平均較高 (~12m/s),風向也很穩定(~18°);春夏的風速平均較低 (~7m/s)且風向的位置較不特定。小波轉換得出的結果發現風況大致可以用東北風,西南風以及區域風去理解。利用類神經網路所建構出來的多步預測模型的準確率(相關係數 R^2)有達到 0.991,0.981,和 0.970。研究中的參數矯正雖在最後無顯著地提升模型的準確率,但卻可以提高我們對於預測模型的認知。
英文摘要 In 2016, Taiwan’s government published a new energy policy mandating making Taiwan a nuclear-free island by 2025. Offshore wind energy has become an important project to fill the energy gap after the shutdown of nuclear power plants. The biggest problem with wind power is wind instability. A precise forecasting model not only smooths the operation of wind farms, but also reduce damage to the power grid. In this study, wind data from 2017 to 2019 from the Taipower Meteorological Mast in Chanbin offshore is used in the analysis and model training. A short-term multi-step wind forecasting model is established based on an artificial neural network model and is optimized by changing the model parameters.
The data analysis is divided into three parts: a trend analysis, a statistical analysis, and a spectrum analysis. The trend analysis uses a time series plot and a wind rose plot to describe the trends in wind speed and direction over a three-year period. The statistical analysis explores the similarities and differences between each year using statistical values. Finally, the spectrogram obtained by the Wavelet Transform explains the features of the different wind sources. Based on the previous analyses, the accuracy and a further error analysis of the forecasting results are discussed. The LSTM model is the main model used in this study. The parameter tuning focuses on the input data in an attempt to obtain better performance from the data rather than from the model.
At the end of this study, we found the wind regime in spring, autumn, and winter to be similar every year and to be easily affected by the southwest monsoon and typhoons in summer. The average wind speed is high in autumn and winter but low in spring and summer. The Wavelet Transform results showed that the wind conditions can be roughly classified into northeast wind, southwest wind, and local wind. The accuracy (R^2 value) of the multi-step forecasting model reached 0.991, 0.981, and 0.970, respectively, in the first three step prediction. Although parameter tuning did not significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting mode, it greatly improved our understanding of the forecasting result.
論文目次 Table of Contents
Table of Contents i
List of Figures iii
List of Tables vii
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Background and Motivation 1
1.1.1. Taiwan 2
1.1.2. Wind forecasting 5
1.2. Research Objectives and Contributions 6
2. Literature Review 7
2.1. Meteorology 7
2.2. Wind regime in Taiwan 9
2.3. Power Curve 10
2.4. Wind Forecasting 11
3. Materials and Methods 13
3.1. Observation Site and Measurements 13
3.2. Statistical Analysis 15
3.3. Wavelet Spectrum Analysis 18
3.4. Forecasting Methods 20
3.4.1. Persistence Model 20
3.4.2. Artificial Neural Networks 20
3.4.3. Recurrent Neural Network 22
3.5. Neural Network Training Process 24
4. Results and Discussion 27
4.1. Data Sources 27
4.2. Data Analysis 27
4.2.1. Time Series Trends 28
4.2.2. Statistical Analysis 33
4.2.3. Wavelet Spectrum Analysis 37
4.2.4. Section Conclusions 48
4.3. Forecasting Results with the LSTM 49
4.3.1. Data Specifications and Hyperparameter Settings 50
4.3.2. Validation Results 52
4.3.3. Error Analysis 55
4.3.4. Section Conclusion 61
4.4. Forecasting Strategy 62
4.4.1. Model Tests 63
4.4.2. Lookback parameters 66
4.4.3. Look-forward Strategy 67
4.4.4. Wind Direction as a Variable 70
4.4.5. Time Average 73
4.4.6. Different Time Averages to Forecast 30-mins 77
4.4.7. Section Conclusion 80
5. Conclusions and Prospects 82
5.1. Conclusions 82
5.2. Prospects 83
6. References 84
7. Appendix 93
7.1. Details of Statistical Properties 93
7.2. Details of Small Scales Wavelet Spectrum in 2017 and 2018 96
7.3. Details of Diurnal Effects 102

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