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系統識別號 U0026-1507201010332900
論文名稱(中文) 存貨評價損益與財務分析師盈餘預測誤差之關聯性
論文名稱(英文) The Relationship between Loss or Gain on Inventory Valuation and Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Errors
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 會計學系碩博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Accountancy
學年度 98
學期 2
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 李渝秀
研究生(英文) Yu-Hsiu Li
學號 r1697405
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 117頁
口試委員 指導教授-楊朝旭
口試委員-陳政芳
口試委員-黃炳勳
中文關鍵字 存貨評價損益  盈餘組成要素  盈餘持續性  分析師盈餘預測  分析師預測誤差  錯誤評價 
英文關鍵字 Loss or gain on inventory valuation  earnings components  earnings persistence  analyst’s earnings forecast  analyst’s earnings forecast errors  mispricing 
學科別分類
中文摘要 我國財務會計準則公報第十號「存貨之會計處理準則」之新修訂,將存貨評價損益由原先之營業外損益轉列至銷貨成本項下。過去研究指出本業內盈餘項目持續性高於業外盈餘要素,因此,本研究首先驗證存貨評價損益之盈餘持續性是否低於營業損益。其次,探討存貨評價損益對分析師盈餘預測及其準確性的影響。亦即,分析師是否區別出存貨評價損益之持續性低於營業損益,及分析師是否對存貨評價損益產生錯誤之評價。
本研究結果發現:(1)存貨評價損益之持續性低於營業損益持續性;(2)分析師區別出不同盈餘要素之資訊內涵而給予存貨評價損益較低的評價權重;(3)分析師低估存貨評價損益之持續性,導致錯誤評價的現象。
英文摘要 On November 29, 2007, Taiwan’s Financial Accounting Standards Committee of the Accounting Research and Development Foundation revised SFAS No.10 “The Accounting for Inventory”. The new revised Taiwan’s SFAS No.10 reclassifies loss or gain on inventory valuation from non-operting item to the cost of goods sold. Prior literature indicates that the persistence of non-operating income items is lower than operating income items. Therefore, our study investigates whether the earnings persistence of loss or gain on inventory valuation is lower than operating income. Second, we examine whether analysts correctly distinguish the persistence of operating income from the one of loss or gain on inventory valuation.
The empirical results indicate that:(1) The persistence of loss or gain on inventory valuation is lower than operating income;(2) Financial analysts do distinguish between loss or gain on inventory valuation and operating income, and the forecasting weight on inventory revaluation is lower;(3) Financial analysts under-react to the information of inventory revaluation.
論文目次 第壹章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究問題及目的 7
1.3預期研究貢獻 8
1.4研究流程與架構 9
第貳章 文獻探討與假說發展 12
2.1存貨財務會計準則與相關研究 12
2.1.1 存貨財務會計準則 12
2.1.2 與存貨相關之研究 18
2.2盈餘組成要素與其持續性 25
2.2.1 持續性之意義 25
2.2.2 盈餘組成要素之增額資訊內涵 26
2.2.2.1依損益表組成之功能性分析 27
2.2.2.2依資金來源基礎之分解 29
2.3盈餘組成要素持續性與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性 32
2.3.1 分析師之角色 32
2.3.2 盈餘組成要素持續性與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性 34
2.4分析師盈餘預測準確性與盈餘持續性之關聯性 39
第參章 研究方法 44
3.1 本研究之觀念架構 44
3.2 實證模型與變數衡量 45
3.3 研究期間、樣本選取標準與資料來源 54
3.3.1 研究期間 54
3.3.2 樣本選取標準 55
3.3.3 資料來源 55
3.4 資料分析方法 56
第肆章 實證結果與分析 58
4.1 敘述性統計分析 58
4.1.1 樣本選取 58
4.1.2 敘述性統計分析結果 59
4.2 多元迴歸分析 73
4.3 穩健性測試 77
4.3.1 將整體產業區分為電子業及非電子業 77
4.3.2 控制產業別因素 80
4.3.3 控制年份別因素 81
4.3.4 加入過去研究中相關之控制變數 81
4.3.5 以「存貨跌價損失」取代「存貨評價損益」進行測試 89
4.3.6採用不同分析師預測資料時間 90
第伍章 結論與建議 91
5.1 研究結論 91
5.2 研究建議 93
5.3 研究限制 94
參考文獻 97
附錄 106
Appendix A 平減前各變數之敘述性統計量 106
Appendix B 存貨跌價損失/迴轉個別占營業淨利及淨利比重 108
Appendix C 樣本期間內連續提列存貨跌價損失/迴轉個別情形 112
Appendix D 樣本期間內存貨跌價損失/迴轉個別提列年數及重複次數 114
Appendix E 存貨占總資產及流動資產之比重 116
表目錄
表 2-1 我國十號公報主要修改內容前後比較 17
表 3-1 實證變數之定義及說明 53
表 3-2 實證變數之預期符號及意涵說明 54
表 4-1 樣本篩選流程 59
表 4-2 本研究樣本產業分布狀況 60
表 4-3 各變數之敘述性統計量(平減後) 62
表 4-4 上市一般產業 存貨評價損益占營業淨利比重 64
表 4-5 上市一般產業 存貨評價損益占淨利比重 66
表 4-6 上市一般產業2001至2006年間連續提列存貨評價損益情形 67
表 4-7 上市一般產業2001至2006年間存貨評價損益提列年數及重複次數 68
表 4-8 各變數之相關係數矩陣 71
表 4-9 存貨評價損益對分析師盈餘預測誤差影響之實證結果 73
表 4-10 電子/非電子業存貨評價損益對分析師盈餘預測誤差影響之穩健性測試 79
表 4-11 存貨評價損益對分析師盈餘預測誤差影響之穩健性測試 83
表 4-12 存貨評價損益對分析師盈餘預測誤差影響之實證結果 85
表 4-13 存貨評價損益對分析師盈餘預測誤差影響之實證結果 88
表 A-1 平減前各變數之敘述性統計量(單位:仟元) 106
表 B-1 上市一般產業 存貨跌價損失占營業淨利之比重 108
表 B-2 上市一般產業 存貨迴轉利益占營業淨利之比重 109
表 B-3 上市一般產業 存貨跌價損失占淨利之比重 110
表 B-4 上市一般產業 存貨存貨迴轉利益占淨利比重 111
表 C-1 上市一般產業 2001至 2006年間連續提列存貨跌價損失情形 112
表 C-2 上市一般產業 2001至 2006年間連續提列存貨迴轉利益情形 113
表 D-1 上市一般產業 2001至 2006年間存貨跌價損失提列年數及重複次數 114
表 D-2 上市一般產業 2001至 2006年間存貨迴轉利得提列年數及重複次數 115
表 E-1 上市一般產業 存貨占總資產比重 116
表 E-2 上市一般產業 存貨占流動資產比重 117
圖目錄
圖 1-1 研究流程圖 11
圖 3-1 本研究之觀念性架構 45
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