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系統識別號 U0026-1506201915503000
論文名稱(中文) 經理人過度自信與企業併購決策之關聯性分析
論文名稱(英文) The Relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate M&A Decision
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融研究所
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Finance
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生(中文) 紀宛伶
研究生(英文) Wan-Ling Chi
學號 R86064011
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 26頁
口試委員 指導教授-梁少懷
口試委員-王澤世
口試委員-周庭楷
中文關鍵字 併購  經理人過度自信  併購績效 
英文關鍵字 Managerial Overconfidence  Merger and Acquisition  M&A Performance 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究採用2011至2017年間429家台灣上市公司作為樣本,探討經理人過度自信與併購間之關聯性,並進一步觀察併購後是否能為股東創造效益。本研究藉由報紙媒體針對經理人之評論來判斷其是否過度自信。研究結果顯示,擁有過度自信經理人之企業較理性經理人之企業進行併購的機率高。此外,過度自信經理人主導之併購於三天期宣告效果表現較佳,本文認為其乃因市場接收媒體對於過度自信經理人之正面積極評論,進而對該併購過度樂觀。然於後續一季中,該績效呈現大幅修正,整體波動大於理性經理人主導之併購。長期而言,過度自信經理人主導之併購產生之買進持有異常報酬較高。本文認為長期來看,過度自信經理人之管理能力充分改善合併後企業之經營績效,而為股東創造額外效益。
英文摘要 This thesis analyzes a sample of 429 Taiwan listed companies between 2011 and 2017 to examine the relevance between managerial overconfidence and corporate M&A decision. A manager is classified as overconfident if the press portrayals of whom include more positive keywords than neutral or negative ones. Empirical results show that there is a significantly positive relationship between overconfident manager and acquisition activities, according to the logistic regression analysis. It implies that the companies with overconfident mangers are more likely to conduct acquisitions than the companies with rational ones.
Also, the thesis investigates the impact of managerial overconfidence to post-acquisition performance. I measure the short-run market reactions to the bid and long-run post-acquisition performance using event study methodology. According to the results of multiple regression analysis, the relevance between managerial overconfidence and acquisition announcement effect is not strongly significant. However, we could find that average cumulative abnormal returns of overconfident mangers’ acquisition fluctuate more dramatically than those conducted by rational managers. As for the long-term performance, managerial overconfidence is slightly and positively related with long-run post-acquisition performance. It indicates that overconfident manager perform great managerial ability in merged company and create firm value as time passed.
論文目次 摘要 I
英文延伸摘要 II
目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧與研究假說 2
第一節 過度自信與併購動機 2
第二節 過度自信與併購績效 3
第三節 過度自信衡量方法 4
第三章 研究設計 7
第一節 資料來源與樣本選取 7
第二節 變數定義 7
一、 自變數 7
二、 應變數 8
三、 控制變數 9
第三節 研究方法 12
一、 邏輯式迴歸分析 12
二、 事件研究法 13
三、 複迴歸分析 14
第四章 實證結果與分析 15
第一節 敘述性統計與相關係數 15
第二節 經理人過度自信與併購之關聯 16
第三節 過度自信經理人對併購績效之影響 18
一、 短期績效 18
二、 長期績效 21
第五章 結論 22
第一節 研究結論 22
第二節 研究限制與建議 22
參考文獻 24

參考文獻 丁憲浩 、胡聯國 、莊雙喜 (2007) 。 企業併購確實能為股東創造更多利益嗎 ? 績效 與策略研究, 與策略研究, 4(3) , 1-13 。
李春玲 (2013) 。 管理者過度自信對企業併購績效影響研究 。 燕山大學 報(哲燕山大學 報(哲社會科學版) 社會科學版) ,14 (4 ), 118 。
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