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系統識別號 U0026-1501201314403300
論文名稱(中文) Determinants of International Tourist Arrivals for Thailand: A Monthly Econometric Model of Arrivals by Country of Origin
論文名稱(英文) Determinants of International Tourist Arrivals for Thailand: A Monthly Econometric Model of Arrivals by Country of Origin
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 國際經營管理研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)
學年度 101
學期 1
出版年 102
研究生(中文) 莊佩吉
研究生(英文) Chuleeporn Chotithamwattana
學號 Ra6007073
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 78頁
口試委員 指導教授-偉耶倫
口試委員-黃國平
口試委員-鄭至甫
中文關鍵字 None 
英文關鍵字 Tourist arrivals  Determinants of demand for tourism  Seasonal effect  Lag effect  Disruption  Impact. 
學科別分類
中文摘要 None
英文摘要 Thailand has many strengths being one of the most attractive travel destination in the world. A rapid growth of Thailand’s tourism has provided considerable prosperity to the country. It is 7.6% of GDP in 2011 and rising. This research used monthly data of international tourist arrivals to Thailand during 1995 to 2011 provided by Tourism Authority of Thailand as dependent variable. Lag effect, macroeconomic factors, dummy variables for seasonal effects and disruptions were used as independent variables. The purpose is to estimate tourist arrivals by month and by source because it will give a more accurate and usable estimate. The estimated models can be used to test for the effects of disruptions by quantifying the effect of tourist arrivals and the economic impact.
The findings suggest that care should be taken when launching short-term promotions and trend monitoring is very important because tourists from different sources respond differently against changes in factors affecting their demands for travel. Understanding the determinants of international tourist arrivals by source provides valuable information to the Thai tourism industry on how, when and where to target promotion programs.
論文目次 ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II
TABLE OF CONTENTS III
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation. 1
1.2 Research Objectives and Contributions. 5
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 8
2.1 Tourism Market in Thailand. 8
2.2 Tourism Modeling and Forecasting. 12
2.3 Determinants of Demand for International Tourism. 13
2.3.1 Income. 14
2.3.2 Price. 14
2.3.3 Marketing. 14
2.3.4 Trends and Fashion. 14
2.3.5 Special Events. 15
2.3.6 Other Factors. 15
2.4 Seasonality Analysis. 17
2.5 Events Impact Analysis and Risk Forecasting. 18
2.6 Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand. 21
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 30
3.1 Data Sources and Sampling Plan. 30
3.2 Method of Analysis. 31
3.2.1 Multiple Regression. 31
3.2.2 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). 32
3.3 Variables to be Used. 33
3.3.1 Man-made and Natural Disruptions as Dummy Variables. 33
3.3.2 Demand of International Tourism to Thailand as Dependent Variable. 33
3.3.3 Independent Variables. 33
3.4 Software and Application of Analysis. 35
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 36
4.1 Test of Ordinary Least Square on Main Models. 36
4.2 Comparing the Estimated Results. 46
4.3 Impacts of the Disruptions. 47
4.4 Test of Multicollinearity. 51
4.5 Test of Autocorrelations. 52
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 54
5.1 Research Conclusion and Discussion. 54
5.2 Research Implication. 58
5.3 Research Limitation. 59
5.4 Future Research Suggestion. 60
REFERENCES 61
APPENDICES 64
Appendix A: Regression Results of Multicollinearity Test (Equation 1 to 11). 64
Appendix B: Graph Fitting of Each Equation. 73
Appendix C: Jan-Sep 2012 Tourist Arrivals Forecast from Equations. 77
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