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系統識別號 U0026-1501201020242100
論文名稱(中文) 使用統計預測模式推論生產機台績效之研究
論文名稱(英文) Using Statistics Model to forcast production machine performance
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class)
學年度 98
學期 1
出版年 99
研究生(中文) 王丹汝
研究生(英文) Dan-Ru Wang
電子信箱 u8723033@gmail.com
學號 R3795106
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 54頁
口試委員 指導教授-王惠嘉
口試委員-王逸琳
口試委員-王維聰
中文關鍵字 預測  指數加權移動平均  線性迴歸  移動平均 
英文關鍵字 Forecast  EWMA  Linear Regression  Moving Average 
學科別分類
中文摘要 摘 要

現行半導體工廠進行產品生產時若無透過先進製程控制系統進行製程控制,主要會依據生產機台績效來控制產品品質;當機台績效不穩定則會直接影響到產品品質,所以如何將不同規格產品於生產前分配到最適合生產的機台進行生產是一件十分重要的事。目前,若要控制產品品質在控制機台配貨方式往往需要花費大量人力,首先要先判斷前製程之產品品質並分析現行生產機台績效後才能進行手動派工讓貨進行生產,透過此手動作業才能讓產品品質維持在一定變異水準之內。

本研究希望運用統計預測模型將機台績效歷史資料建立預測模型來即時預測最新機台績效數據,透過每一筆新進點資料即可馬上預測出最新機台績效,以讓下一批貨進行生產機台選擇之參考,透過統計預測之數據,工程人員將不再需透過個人經驗來計算目前機台績效值並進行手動派貨作業;在本研究中共使用了五種統計預測模式,包含長期平均、移動平均(Moving Average)、加權指數移動平均(Exponentially Weighted Moving Average)、線性迴歸(Linear Regression)和多項式迴歸(Multi-Regression)模式,並透過誤差評估指標發現整體而言以移動平均(Moving Average)之預測方式最為準確,此預測數值產出後可直接提供給生產派貨相關系統進行參考運用;未來,並可動態的將不同產品品質派至最適機台進行生產,進而降低產品品質變異和縮短產品生產週期。
英文摘要 Abstract

Current semiconductor factory is based on process tool performance to control product quality. If there is no advanced process control system to control process performance, un-stable tool performance will impact product quality directly. It’s important that how to dispatch different specification product to suitable process machine. In current factory, we spend much manpower to judge product dispatch model. First of all, engineer has to check pre-process data to analyze process machine performance and then manually dispatch product to suitable machine. This methodology keeps product quality within standard variation by manual operation.

This research aims to build a tool performance predict model. This model is selected through evaluating several popular statistics forecasting models. We hope we can predict tool performance by new data input via this model. By the forecast form system, engineer does not need to dispatch product by experience, but by calculating model. In this research, we set up the model by 5 statistics forecasting models, including long-term average、Moving Average、Exponentially Weighted Moving Average、Linear Regression and Multi-Regression statistics models. Frome the results, we found Moving Average is the most suitable by error evaluation index analysis. In the future, we may use this methodology to improve product quality variation and shorten manufacturing cycle time.
論文目次 目 錄
第一章 緒 論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 2
1.3 研究目的 4
1.4 研究範圍與限制 5
1.5 研究流程 6
1.6 論文架構 7
第二章 文獻探討與理論基礎 8
2.1 相關理論探討 8
2.1.1 先進製程控制(Advanced Process Control) 8
2.1.2 資料採掘方法 12
2.1.3 誤差評估指標理論 14
2.2 相關文獻探討 14
2.2.1 Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(EWMA)預測文獻 14
2.2.2 Linear Regression(LR) 預測相關文獻 15
2.2.3 Moving Average(MA) 預測相關文獻 15
第三章 研究方法 17
3.1 機台績效預測方法 17
3.1.1 Simple Moving Average(簡單移動平均預測法) 17
3.1.2 Long-term Average(長期趨勢平均預測法) 20
3.1.3 Linear Regreesion(線性迴歸預測法) 22
3.1.4 Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(指數加權移動平均預測法) 25
3.1.5 Multi-Linear Regression (迴歸多項式方程式) 26
第四章 實驗研究與分析 29
4.1 系統建置 29
4.1.1 實驗環境 29
4.1.2 實驗資料來源 29
4.1.3 比較對象 30
4.1.4 評估指標 31
4.2 預測模擬系統 32
4.3 統計預測實驗模式 32
4.3.1 迴歸多項式方程式預測法 32
4.3.2 線性迴歸預測法 35
4.3.3 長期趨勢平均預測法 38
4.3.4 移動平均預測法 40
4.3.5 指數加權移動平均預測法 41
4.4 預測結果彙整與比較 43
第五章 結論與建議 48
5.1 結論 48
5.2 建議 50
參考文獻 51
中文部份 51
英文部份 52

參考文獻 參考文獻
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