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系統識別號 U0026-1411201413054000
論文名稱(中文) 以模糊理論為基礎之籃球賽事預測系統
論文名稱(英文) A Fuzzy Logic Based Basketball Games Forecasting Recommendation System
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 製造資訊與系統研究所
系所名稱(英) Institue of Manufacturing Information and Systems
學年度 103
學期 1
出版年 103
研究生(中文) 陳泰維
研究生(英文) Tai-Wei Chen
學號 P96011157
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 33頁
口試委員 指導教授-蔡佩璇
口試委員-謝孫源
口試委員-張大緯
口試委員-蔡孟勳
口試委員-張軒彬
中文關鍵字 模糊理論  運動彩券  推薦系統 
英文關鍵字 Fuzzy logic  Sports lottery  Recommend System 
學科別分類
中文摘要 運動彩券服務已經普遍地在各種運動產業中發展,許多人會在比賽前關注比賽的動向,並且對比賽進行預測。運動彩券是一個可以對比賽進行預測的方式之一,對於彩券迷或球迷(統稱為彩迷)在選擇運動彩券項目時會有預測準確率低的情況發生,常見的處理方式是關注許多專業的球評或運動彩券的分析師,他們根據自身的專業能力以及多年來對球賽的分析經驗,讓他們能在比賽開始前對球賽進行評估,並且預測賽事結果。但是無論球評或是分析師(統稱為專家),只會針對特定的賽事進行預測。因此,我們以提高預測賽事之準確率為研究,在能夠對大部分的賽事進行預測之情況下,其準確率又能比彩迷和專家還高。
由於籃球運動賽事皆會有許多賽事參數被統計,如得分、籃板等,在關注賽事時我們無法得知哪一項賽事參數對於比賽結果是較為重要的,我們提出以模糊理論為基礎之籃球賽事預測推薦系統,其預測機制為擷取過去某一段時間內的賽事參數,並觀察其變化,來當作我們在預測比賽時之依據。我們將利用模糊理論來分析賽事參數的重要性,找出較為重要之參數,並且對比賽結果進行預測。透過模糊理論我們找出較為重要的賽事參數,並且與Varca和Garcia等人利用統計方式分析具有優勢之賽事參數之預測準確率相比。由實驗可知,我們找出的賽事參數較為重要,並且能得到較高的賽事預測準確率。
英文摘要 Sports lottery has generally developed in a variety of sports industry. Many people will follow match trends and forecast competition results before the match started. Sports lottery is one of the possible ways to forecast the game. Lottery fans or sports fans (thereafter called fans) have the problem of low prediction accuracy when they are going to bet and choose the predicted game. If fans want to know how to raise prediction accuracy, they are usually following professional commentators or analysts (thereafter called expert) who are according to their expertise and analysis experience to forecast competition results. Each expert will only forecast some competitions which they are interested, therefore our research aims to the system which can forecast most of competitions and have higher prediction accuracy.
Because of basketball competitions are recorded a lot of game parameters, we can’t realize the game parameter which is more important for forecasting competitions. We aim to A Fuzzy Logic Based Basketball Games Forecasting Recommendation System (FLBFRS), which forecasting mechanism is going to get past game parameters to forecast competition results. In this paper, we use fuzzy logic to analysis the importance of game parameters, and find the more important game parameters for forecasting competition results, and compare with the advantageous game parameters for home count which are found by MANOVA and CCA statistics. From the experimental results, we can get higher prediction accuracy.
論文目次 目錄
摘要 ii
Extended Abstract iii
表目錄 x
圖目錄 xi
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 模糊理論 4
2.1 模糊化與模糊規則庫 5
2.2 模糊推論 9
2.3 解模糊化 10
第三章 賽事預測系統 12
3.1 系統流程 12
3.2 賽事參數特徵值計算 14
3.3 賽事預測系統之模糊推論 18
3.3.1 賽事參數模糊化與模糊規則 19
3.3.2 賽事模糊推論 21
3.3.3 賽事結果解模糊化與推薦賽事 23
第四章 賽事參數分析與賽事預測結果 25
4.1 實驗設計 25
4.2 以球隊間之表現分析賽事參數之重要性 26
4.3 與現今傳播媒體做比較 29
第五章 結論與未來展望 31
參考文獻 32
參考文獻 參考文獻
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