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系統識別號 U0026-1406201423274900
論文名稱(中文) 探討創新跨界產品之擴散過程-以平板手機為例
論文名稱(英文) The diffusion process of innovative cross-over products - The case of Phablet
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生(中文) 曾聖安
研究生(英文) Sheng-an Tseng
學號 R36011157
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 58頁
口試委員 指導教授-耿伯文
口試委員-林清河
口試委員-李昇暾
中文關鍵字 共擴散模型  跨界產品 
英文關鍵字 Co-diffusion model  cross-over product 
學科別分類
中文摘要 科技發展日新月異,越來越多新興產品出現在市場上並且取代舊有產品。廠商為求吸引消費者購買便不斷研發創新產品功能,或是在一個產品之中融合許多產品之優點。於是,跨界產品成為近年來的趨勢,意指融合兩種或是兩種以上產品特性之創新商品,以往多應用在汽車製造上。近年來,跨界產品的概念也應用於發展各類家用電器產品或是電子科技產品上,以求吸引更多的消費者購買。
為瞭解跨界產品在市場上之擴散,是否會因為融合各產品特性而受到其前身產品之正向或負向影響,本研究透過共擴散模型,並以橫跨智慧型手機以及平板電腦之跨界產品—平板手機為研究實例,探討跨界產品與其前身產品之間擴散相互影響關係,並建立一綜合其前身產品擴散影響性之創新跨界產品共擴散模型,以了解創新跨界產品之擴散過程。
本研究發現,分別考慮了智慧型手機、平板電腦擴散影響性之平板手機共擴散模型,預測能力以及配適度都較Bass擴散模型要好,結果顯現智慧型手機以及平板電腦都各自有助於平板手機之擴散情形。而本研究建立之綜合前身產品(智慧型手機以及平板電腦)雙重影響性之平板手機共擴散模型,其預測能力以及配適度又比原始之共擴散模型還要更好。因此,未來企業在發展跨界產品時,可以使用本研究建立之共擴散模型,同時考慮各前身產品之相關影響性,以求達到更好之需求預測。
英文摘要 Cross-over product is the trend nowadays, it means the products that combined two or more than two products' functions or characteristic. It was applied to automotive manufacturing, but recently this kind of concepts begins to apply to technological products.
In this research studies the co-diffusion effects between cross-over product and its predecessor and uses phablet, the combination of smartphone and tablet, as the research case. And build a co-diffusion model that combined both predecessors' diffusion effects. We estimate the model by the global shipments data of Phablet, smartphone and tablet, the result shows that smartphone and tablet separately has positive impact on their cross-over product, phablet. But the result of co-diffusion model combining both predecessors' diffusion effects shows that smartphone has greater impact to phablet than tablet. Also we find that when three products coexist in the same market, tablet would have negative impact on phablet.
論文目次 摘要 II
英文延伸摘要 Ⅲ
誌謝 XI
目錄 XII
表目錄 XIV
圖目錄 XV
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 5
第三節 研究流程 5
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 擴散模型(Diffusion model) 8
第二節 共擴散模型(Co-diffusion model) 19
第三節 擴散模型之參數估計 25
第三章 研究方法 28
第一節 研究架構 28
第二節 參數說明 31
第三節 模型建立 32
第四節 參數估計方法與模型評估準則 34
第四章 實證結果與分析 38
第一節 平板手機研究定義及介紹 38
第二節 模型之參數估計與配適能力 40
第三節 共擴散模型預測效果分析 49
第五章 結論與建議 51
第一節 研究結論 51
第二節 未來研究方向 53
參考文獻 55
參考文獻 網路部分
1. Wikipedia (2013). Phablet. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phablet
2. 維基百科中文版 (2013). 平板手機. Retrieved from http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B9%B3%E6%9D%BF%E6%89%8B%E6%9C%BA
3. Engadget (2014). Engadget 中文版 2013 年之最:平板手機篇. Retrieved from http://chinese.engadget.com/2014/01/04/engadget-2013-best-of-phablet/
4. DisplaySearch (2013). Phablet–智慧手機和平板電腦的結合. Retrieved from http://www.displaysearch.com.tw/news.php?id=333.
5. IDC. (2013). Big Screens for Less: Phablets Overtake Both Tablet and Portable PC Shipments in Asia in Second Quarter of 2013: IDC. Retrieved from http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prSG24296513.
6. Oxford Dictionaries (2013). phablet. Retrieved from http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/phablet?q=phablet
英文文獻部分
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4. Chien, C. F., Chen, Y. J., & Peng, J. T. (2010). Manufacturing intelligence for semiconductor demand forecast based on technology diffusion and product life cycle. International Journal of Production Economics, 128(2), 496-509.
5. Dewan, S., Ganley, D., & Kraemer, K. L. (2010). Complementarities in the diffusion of personal computers and the Internet: Implications for the global digital divide. Information Systems Research, 21(4), 925-940.
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24. Ruiz-Conde, E., Leeflang, P. S., & Wieringa, J. E. (2006). Marketing variables in macro-level diffusion models. Journal für Betriebswirtschaft, 56(3), 155-183.
25. Schmittlein, D. C., & Mahajan, V. (1982). Maximum likelihood estimation for an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance. Marketing science, 1(1), 57-78.
26. Srinivasan, V., & Mason, C. H. (1986). Technical Note-Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models. Marketing science, 5(2), 169-178.
27. Simon, H., & Sebastian, K. H. (1987). Diffusion and advertising: the German telephone campaign. Management Science, 33(4), 451-466.
28. Tseng, F. M., Liu, Y. L., & Wu, H. H. (2013). Market penetration among competitive innovation products: The case of the Smartphone Operating System. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management.
29. Theil, H. (1965). The analysis of disturbances in regression analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 60(312), 1067-1079.
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