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系統識別號 U0026-1308201723211800
論文名稱(中文) 以實質選擇權分析GSM服務之汰換
論文名稱(英文) Real Option Analysis for GSM Service Phase out
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 電信管理研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of Telecommunications and Management
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生(中文) 洪銘偉
研究生(英文) Ming-Wei Hong
學號 R96041049
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 48頁
口試委員 口試委員-陳文字
口試委員-黃光雄
指導教授-黃光渠
中文關鍵字 2G  PEST分析  實質選擇權  技術中立性  補貼政策  2G釘子戶 
英文關鍵字 2G  PEST analysis  real options  technological neutrality  subsidy  stubborn nail of 2G 
學科別分類
中文摘要 隨時間演進,行動通訊明顯為我們日常生活帶來許多效益,但隨著新先進的通訊系統被開發與應用,必須開始思考是否仍有其必要保留舊基礎設施,特別是已經建置二十餘年,普便於全球的2G(GSM)系統,而國家通訊傳播委員會(NCC)於2016年9月21號宣布2G系統將於今年六月終止並不再展延。有鑑於此,本研究先以總體環境(PEST)分析台灣、香港和韓國三者GSM廢止議題之差別,從中歸納出台灣不足地方與現況。再以中華電信為例,建構出實質選擇權分析模型,將GSM汰換視為一個完整之投資計畫,並以實質選擇權進行效益評估。在本研究模型中,假設中華電信在延遲、擴張、縮減三種不同決策權下,評估其進行2G用戶移轉計畫之可行性,並且透過分析結果檢視NCC之相關政策措施。
PEST分析結果指出,台灣發放2G執照技術時執照綁定技術,亦無升級誘因機制促使電信業者汰換舊世代網絡,因此頻譜使用僵化和低效率。再者,NCC宣布終止與告知2G用戶之時間點過於短促,造成電信業者移轉2G用戶壓力以及釘子戶之產生。實質選擇權分析結果指出,中華電信在考慮延遲選擇權後,應要提早執行計畫,延遲一年移轉2G用戶反而造成計畫獲利下降,亦意謂著NCC公布2G終止時間若越早確定,對整體電信市場更能提升經濟效率。在擴張選擇權分析下,政府介入間接降低中華電信移轉2G用戶成本,使中華電信整體計畫獲利增加,但在升級方案資費之提供並未積極,進而造成高忠誠度消費者在轉換方案選擇上消極面對。在考慮縮減選擇權下,中華電信拆除2G基地台促使成本降低,進而顯現整體計畫價值性,亦意謂未來在技術中立性的框架下,電信業者亦能主動繳回頻譜逐步汰換舊通訊系統,藉此發展新技術以及降低舊系統營運成本。
英文摘要 As time goes by, mobile communication has enriched our daily lives with all kinds of convenience. However, with the recent advances of cellular communication technologies and new mobile systems being deployed as 3G and LTE(4G), people wonder whether there still is a need for maintaining the legacy infrastructure, in particular the widely deployed 2G systems. The National Communications Commission(NCC)in Taiwan said that 2G telecommunications services are to be officially terminated in June 2017. In the light of this, this study applies the PEST analysis to distinguish the difference of 2G termination issue between Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea. After that, this study takes the Chunghwa Telecom as an example to a real option analysis model to evaluate its option values. In this research model, we assume that the Chunghwa Telecom could apply different kinds of real options, defer option, expand option and contract option to enhance its profitability. Moreover, the research result can assess the values of 2G migration project to analyze the NCC’s policies in GSM termination process.
The PEST analysis indicates, so far, the 2G license is under some technical limitations and without technological neutrality. Therefore, it lacks of incentive mechanism to promote GSM mobile operators to upgrade their systems, so the spectrum using is less efficiency and more rigid. Furthermore, the preparation period between announcement and termination for GSM is too short to implement, so it causes some pressure on both mobile operators and 2G subscribers. The real option analysis indicates, after analyzing the option to defer, Chunghwa Telecom(CHT)should carry out the migration project early. If the Chunghwa Telecom defers the migration project for a year, the total profits from the project will be reduced. Furthermore, the results also indicate that the NCC should announce the 2G termination earlier and encourage the MNOs to migrate their 2G user to 4G aggressively. For the option to expand, the subsidy policy involving the 2G termination process reduces a large number of operation costs of 2G for the CHT. However, this policy makes the CHT provide different kinds of telecom charges passively and hurts the rights and interests of 2G loyal customers. Under the option to contract, the CHT can reduce its 2G base stations for cutting down its operation cost and enhance the project’s profits. In addition, the mobile operators may return the spectrum to the NCC earlier for deploying advanced technology, when they confront the license expired sooner or later.
論文目次 Table of Contents III
List of Tables IV
List of Figures V
Chapter One 1
Introduction 1
1.1 Background & Motivation 1
1.2 Research Purpose and Questions 2
1.3 Research Structure 3
Chapter Two 4
Literature Review 4
2.1 The Basics of Spectrum Management Issues 4
2.2 Market Profile of 2G in Different Countries 5
2.3 Mobile Communication Technology 11
2.4 Real Options Approach 14
2.4.1 Capital Budgeting 14
2.4.2 Types of Real Option 15
2.4.3 Applications of Real Option 16
2.4.4 Real Options Pricing 17
Chapter Three 20
Research Model and Design 20
3.1 Research Model and Parameter Definition 20
3.2 Calculation of the Parameters 21
3.3 Assumption of the Research 29
3.4 Limitations of the Research 30
Chapter Four 31
Model Analysis 31
4.1 PEST Analysis 31
4.2 Case Study Research 33
4.2.1. Real Options Pricing 34
4.2.2. Sensitivity Analysis of the Model 40
Chapter Five 43
Conclusion and Discussion 43
5.1. Conclusions 43
5.2. Discussions for Future Research 44
References 45

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