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系統識別號 U0026-1307202019503800
論文名稱(中文) 應用存活理論探討機車年輕新手駕駛之分級駕駛執照規範
論文名稱(英文) Applying Survival Theory to Explore the Norm of Graduated Driver License for Motorcycle Teenage Novice Riders
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 交通管理科學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Transportation & Communication Management Science
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 王琮瑋
研究生(英文) Tsung-Wei Wang
學號 R56074167
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 85頁
口試委員 共同指導教授-胡守任
指導教授-沈宗緯
口試委員-魏健宏
口試委員-褚志鵬
口試委員-王中允
中文關鍵字 機車新手駕駛  分級駕駛執照  Kaplan-Meier存活曲線  Cox等比例危險模型 
英文關鍵字 Motorcycle novice rider  Graduated driver licensing  Kaplan-Meier survival curve  Cox proportional hazards model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 機車是我國交通運輸的主要運具之一,然而受限於車體設計的條件,機車駕駛人無法如同汽車駕駛人受到額外的車體結構保護,因此在交通事故中發生死傷的機率也普遍較高,其中,以18歲至24歲年輕族群的事故率最為嚴重,並且逐年上升。我國民眾在機車考照前大多以自行學習或他人教導,而無法有效培養正確的機車駕駛技能與風險感知能力,因此現行考照與訓練制度可能無法有效提升機車駕駛人的安全知識,對於駕照管理確實有必要進一步檢討與改善。
本研究從文獻回顧探究有關道路交通事故的主要原因,以及機車年輕新手駕駛的交通事故特性,從中找出影響機車新手駕駛發生交通事故之潛在因素。同時,蒐集國外分級駕駛執照管理相關作法與規範,以了解分級駕駛執照管理之應用與成效。在研究方法方面,本研究主要針對18歲至24歲之機車新手駕駛進行問卷調查,透過Kaplan-Meier存活曲線進行探討。研究結果發現,若機車新手駕駛第一次發生的交通事故類型為A2事故,其存活率在考照後的五個月內皆有大幅下降的現象;若機車新手駕駛第一次發生的交通事故類型為A3事故,其存活率在考照後第10個月至第13個月間皆有迅速下降的現象。另外,藉由Cox等比例危險模型的研究發現,「晚上(18-24時)」、「凌晨(00時-06時)」、「沒有使用車輛頭燈」,以及「搭載乘客」等四項危險因子,皆會導致較高的機車新手駕駛發生受傷事故的危險率。
本研究根據上述研究結果初步研擬我國機車年輕新手駕駛之分級駕駛執照管理規範,分級階段應以一年為期,並配合相關駕駛條件限制,以協助機車新手駕駛人在取得正式駕駛執照之前,可以在低風險的駕駛條件下適應複雜的交通環境,並培養安全駕駛的能力。
英文摘要 Motorcycle is one of the main transportation modes of teenage in Taiwan, but the accident rate of them is the most serious. Most riders gain riding experience and skills by a process of self-learning before the practical test of driver license, but riders can’t effectively learn the correct driving skills and the ability of risk perception during the training process. Consequently, the motorcycle licensing system of Taiwan may not effectively improve the safety knowledge of novice riders. This study conducted a questionnaire survey to novice riders aged 18 to 24, and analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method. The results indicate that if the first traffic accident occurred by novice rider was an injured accident, the survival rate would has dropped significantly within 5 months after obtaining the license; if the first traffic accident occurred by novice rider was an no apparent injured accident, the survival rate had a rapid decline from the 10th to the 13th month after the licensing. In addition, by applying the Cox proportional hazards model, this study found that "evening (6p.m-12p.m.)", "early morning (12a.m.-06a.m.)", "no vehicle headlight", and "carrying passenger" would lead to a higher risk of an injured accident for novice riders. This study initially proposes the graduated driving license of novice riders in Taiwan, which should be one year and cooperated with the relevant driving conditions. The proposed graduated driving license scheme will assist the novice rider to adapt complex traffic environment under low-risk driving condition and equip themselves with the safety ability.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 5
1.3研究範疇 5
1.4研究方法 5
1.5研究流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧 9
2.1我國機車駕駛執照考訓制度 9
2.2交通事故嚴重程度分級與交通違規分類之定義 10
2.2.1交通事故嚴重程度分級 11
2.2.2交通違規分類 13
2.3分級駕駛執照 17
2.4交通事故之主要發生因素 23
2.4.1駕駛人因素 23
2.4.2車輛因素 24
2.4.3道路因素 24
2.4.4環境因素 25
2.5機車年輕新手駕駛之交通事故與違規特性 26
2.5.1年輕族群交通事故與違規特性 26
2.5.2機車交通事故與違規特性 28
2.6存活理論之基本概念及相關研究 30
2.7小結 41
第三章 研究方法 43
3.1存活理論之基本函數定義 43
3.2存活理論之資料型態 45
3.2.1設限資料型態 45
3.2.2截斷資料型態 46
3.2.3本研究資料型態說明 47
3.3Kaplan-Meier存活曲線 48
3.4Cox等比例危險模型 50
3.4.1模型建構 50
3.4.2相對風險 51
3.5問卷設計與資料分析流程 52
3.5.1問卷設計 52
3.5.2資料分析流程 54
第四章 實證研究 55
4.1資料蒐集 55
4.2敘述性統計 55
4.2.1基本社會經濟資料 56
4.2.2機車考照年齡與種類 57
4.2.3使用運具之頻率與時間 58
4.2.4交通事故相關資訊 59
4.2.5車輛頭燈使用與搭載乘客狀況 61
4.2.6頭部受傷狀況與安全帽使用類型 62
4.3機車新手駕駛領照後至首次事故之Kaplan-Meier存活曲線 63
4.4機車年輕新手駕駛發生受傷事故之特性 65
4.5結果與討論 67
第五章 結論與建議 70
5.1結論 70
5.2貢獻與限制 71
5.3建議 72
參考文獻 75
附錄 調查問卷 84
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