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系統識別號 U0026-1302201523411800
論文名稱(中文) 人民幣跨境貿易結算金額的決定因子
論文名稱(英文) The determinants of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 國際企業研究所
系所名稱(英) Institute of International Business
學年度 103
學期 1
出版年 104
研究生(中文) 金伯翰
研究生(英文) Po-Han Chin
學號 R66011145
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 37頁
口試委員 指導教授-許永明
指導教授-蔡燿全
口試委員-康信鴻
口試委員-劉宗其
口試委員-張紹基
中文關鍵字 人民幣  結算貨幣  跨境貿易 
英文關鍵字 Renminbi  Settlement currency  Cross-border trade 
學科別分類
中文摘要 2008年金融危機後,全世界第二大貿易國與經濟體的中國,為了實現人民幣成為國際化貨幣的經濟政策,在2011年8月23日擴大推廣人民幣跨境貿易結算政策至全中國。
中國是臺灣第一大貿易夥伴,2012年雙邊貿易規模達1,700億美元,臺灣對於人民幣有可觀的匯兌實質需求,臺灣更可能成為香港之後,第二個人民幣離岸中心,所以臺灣應注意人民幣之現況,而人民幣要成為國際化貨幣,最重要的就是要有吸引國內、外企業和投資人選擇以人民幣作為定價或是結算貨幣的誘因,亦即影響中國與其他國家的企業選擇人民幣作為結算貨幣之因素。
因此,本論文即以人民幣跨境貿易結算金額為研究目標,藉由過去之研究文獻,探討過去不同結算貨幣之影響因素為何,也加入中國本身獨有的影響因子,欲了解中國特有的因素是否為人民幣跨境貿易結算金額顯著的決定因子。
本論文採用多元迴歸模型為研究方法,並以每季為單位,蒐集中國自2009年第四季到2014年第一季之總體經濟數據,以人民幣跨境貿易結算金額為被解釋變數,各影響因子為解釋變數進行分析,嘗試找尋人民幣跨境貿易結算金額之決定因子。
研究結果顯示,中國之通貨膨脹率與被解釋變數呈現顯著負向關係,中國對香港和南韓之貿易依賴程度與被解釋變數呈現顯著正向關係,中國貨幣互換協議累計金額則也與被解釋變數呈現顯著正向關係。人民幣匯率不確定風險與中國對其他三國的貿易依賴程度則與被解釋變數呈不顯著關係。
本論文發現以人民幣為例,貨幣的保值功能與總體經濟穩定程度仍然是影響結算金額的重要影響因素,例如通貨膨脹率。此外,各國家間的貿易依賴程度在經過政策與貿易協議的影響後,也會對結算金額有顯著影響。
英文摘要 The determinant of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value
Po-Han Chin
Prof. Yung-Ming Hsu and Prof. Yao-Chuan Tsai
Graduated Scholl of International Business
SUMMARY
The research collects Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value and other macroeconomics data of China from 4th season of 2009 to 1st season of 2014, and tries to understand what factors significantly affect the value of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement. After finding several factors of other currencies from literature reviewing and some unique factors of China, the research uses multiple regression model to analyze which explanatory variables have significant influence on explained variable, Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value. The result of multiple regression model shows that inflation rate of China have significantly negative relationship with explained variable. The research also find that degree of trade dependence between China and some countries have significant positive relationship with Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value. Therefore, stability of currency, economy policies from government and trade agreement with other countries are important determinants for Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value.
Key words: Renminbi, Settlement currency, Cross-border trade
INTRODUCTION
China have been the second-largest economy and trade volume country, However, Renminbi, the official currency of China, have not been an international currency. There is a big gap between economy development of China and internationalization of Renminbi. April 2009, China government decided to execute the “Renminbi cross-border trade settlement pilot management approach” in five cities. In August 2011, China government decided to expand “Renminbi cross-border trade settlement management approach” to all areas of China.
I tried to review some relative literature. Donnenfeld and Haug(2003) researched and found that there is a positive relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and settlement value of imported country currency. Companies also are willing to choose the currency from third country if the third country currency is lower risk of exchange rate.
Wilander(2004) found that when more fluctuation of exchange rate, more export companies will choose imported countries currency. If both exported and imported countries currency are high fluctuation of exchange rate, companies may prefer the power currency, for example US dollars, for a stable exchange rate.
Ligthart and Werner(2012) pointed that trade dependence is the key factor for choosing settle and pricing currency. Because export country will have more power in import country if import country has high trade dependence with export country. And export country will have more power to ask companies which from import country to adopt export country currency.
The research adopts multiple regression model as research method. I try to collect all macroeconomy data from fourth season of 2009 to first season of 2014. The explained variable is Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value and potential affecting factors are explaining variable. Based on the method, I try to find the determinant of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value.
The research result shows that inflation rate of China has significant negative relationship with Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value. Hong Kong and South Korea’s trade dependence with China both show positive relationship with explained variable. Cumulative amount of currency swap agreement of China also shows positive relationship with Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value. But the risk of Renminbi exchange rate uncertainty has no significant relationship with explained variable.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Data of the research are official quantitative macroeconomy data from China government or WTO from fourth season of 2009 to first season of 2014. The main method of this research is multiple regression model, and the explained variable is Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value. There are four explaining variables in the regression model, risk of Renminbi exchange rate volatility, inflation rate of China, degree of dependence on foreign trade with China (five countries), and the accumulative volume of currency swap agreement.
Following is the multiple regression model of the research.
〖RMBSV〗_t=α_t+β_1 〖FXRISK〗_t+β_2 π_t+β_3 〖DDTC〗_(i,t)+β_4 〖SWAP〗_t+ε_t
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The result of inflation rate of China shows a significant negative relationship of explained variable. It means when companies concern about currency depreciation problem, they will prefer to choose a currency with stable exchange rate. Renminbi have a stable inflation rate from 2010 to 2014 so research model support this hypothesis.
On the other hand, the research result only supports that trade dependence with China of all two countries have significant positive relationship with explained variable. According to sample data, the export volume from South Korea to China increase gradually from January 2011. Besides, the import volume from China to Hong Kong increase gradually which is different with South Korea. But both South Korea and Hong Kong have more trade dependence with China.
Additionally, China government support Hong Kong being Renminbi offshore center in 2011. This policy encourages more domestic and international companies adopt Renminbi to settle in Hong Kong. South Korea government sign currency swap agreement with China government in 2011, and free trade agreement in 2013. The two agreement increase more international trade between two countries and encourage more South Korea companies try to adopt Renminbi to settle.
CONCLUSION
The main point of this research is that finding the determinant of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value by some macroeconomy data of China. After analysis in multiple regression model, the result shows that inflation rate of China, Hong Kong and South Korea’s trade dependence with China, and cumulative amount of currency swap agreement of China, the three factors are determinants of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value.
However, the data of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement value are not enough is one of limitation in this research. Besides, there are other methods to calculate inflation rate. It is possible to get different result if trying to choose another method for calculating. Additionally, macroeconomy data of China are not very reliable because some official data from government are not collected completely.
The implication of this research is that trying to understand whether the factors which affecting settlement currency of Europe and North America countries also affecting Renminbi settlement of China. Additionally, another implication of this research is that value storing of currency and economy stability are key factors when companies choosing settlement currency. Finally, government policy which is about international trade and finance also has huge influence on choosing settle currency.
論文目次 目錄
摘要.......................................................I
Abstract..................................................II
誌謝......................................................VI
表目錄.....................................................IX
圖目錄......................................................X
第一章 緒論 ...........................................................................................................1
1.1研究背景..................................................................................................1
1.2跨境貿易人民幣結算 .............................................................................2
1.3研究動機..................................................................................................2
1.4研究之重要性..........................................................................................3
1.5預期研究貢獻..........................................................................................4
第二章 文獻回顧與假說發展...............................................................................5
2.1清算與結算之定義..................................................................................5
2.2「跨境貿易人民幣結算」之定義...........................................................7
2.3文獻回顧與假說發展 .............................................................................8
第三章 研究資料與方法.....................................................................................15
3.1資料選擇................................................................................................15
3.2被解釋變數............................................................................................15
3.3解釋變數................................................................................................15
3.4回歸模型................................................................................................18
第四章 實證結果.................................................................................................19
4.1樣本資料敘述........................................................................................19
4.2回歸分析................................................................................................23
4.3討論與分析............................................................................................28
第五章 結論.........................................................................................................31
參考文獻...............................................................................................................34
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