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系統識別號 U0026-1207202023195000
論文名稱(中文) 供水水庫於不同前置時期之缺水機率分析
論文名稱(英文) Probabilistic estimation of water shortage of various lead times for a water-supply reservoir
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 水利及海洋工程學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Hydraulics & Ocean Engineering
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 柯宜伶
研究生(英文) Yi-Ling Ko
學號 N86074063
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 74頁
口試委員 指導教授-蕭政宗
口試委員-孫建平
口試委員-陳憲宗
口試委員-張麗秋
中文關鍵字 缺水機率  缺水量機率分布  水庫即時操作  水庫可供水量 
英文關鍵字 Water-shortage probability  Water-shortage probability distribution  Real-time operation  Water availability 
學科別分類
中文摘要 臺灣地區降雨量豐沛,但因降雨過於集中導致乾濕季分明,且因地形坡陡流急,水資源容易流失,無法妥善被利用。因此調節河川豐枯不均的流量及提供穩定水資源為臺灣地區水庫營運重要的課題之一。然而無法預期且嚴重的乾旱可能使得水庫供水無法滿足需水量。水庫的供水主要來自水庫內的蓄水量及入流量,其中入流量具有高度不確定性,雖然由過去的水文紀錄可以了解入流量的季節性分布及各時刻入流量的機率分布,但要準確預測未來入流量的大小仍有一定程度的困難。因此本研究提出以歷史流量紀錄建立入流量的機率分布,並與水庫有效蓄水量建立水庫可供水量的機率分布,經與已知的需水量比較即可推估缺水機率及缺水量機率分布。本研究以臺灣南部地區的南化水庫與甲仙攔河堰系統為例,首先建立系統之入流量機率分布,以探討不同前置時期與不同有效蓄水量下各時刻的缺水機率及缺水量機率分布。研究結果顯示南化水庫在不同前置時期的缺水機率於不同月份的缺水狀況呈現明顯差異,枯水期月份(1至2月及11至12月)的缺水況較為類似,且其缺水機率較高,而豐水期月份(6至9月)的缺水情況亦較為類似,但其缺水機率較低。在相同前置時期下,隨著有效起始蓄水量逐漸增加,缺水機率會逐漸降低,且缺水量機率分布會逐漸往左偏移,即缺水量會分布在較小範圍內。整體而言,本研究所提出之方法可作為水庫即時操作評估缺水機率及缺水量機率分布的參考。
英文摘要 Inefficient uses of water resources in Taiwan are caused by uneven distributed rainfall and steep terrain. Reservoirs become important facilities to regulate highly fluctuating streamflow and provide stable water supplies in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to theoretically derive water-shortage probabilities and distributions of future lead times for a water-supply reservoir. The reservoir supply ability is represented by water availability, which is defined as the sum of useful storage and inflow. The water-shortage probability is the probability when the demand is less than the water availability. The water-shortage distribution is a flip of the water-availability distribution. The Nanhua Reservoir and the Chiahsien Weir located in southern Taiwan is used as an example to illustrate the proposed methodology. The water-shortage probabilities and distributions of 1 to 18 10-day periods for various initial useful storage (from empty to full capacity) are constructed. The results indicate that the water-shortage probabilities are different in various periods, which reflect inherent differences of inflow distributions. The water-shortage probabilities generally decrease with increasing initial useful storage for the same lead time. Furthermore, the water-shortage distributions leftward shift, distributed in a smaller range, with increasing initial useful storage. The proposed methodology is useful for real-time reservoir operation since it provides decision-makers future lead-time water-shortage probability and distribution for triggering water rationing measures.
論文目次 摘要 I
誌謝 VIII
目錄 IX
表目錄 XI
圖目錄 XII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機 1
1-2 研究目的 2
1-3 論文架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2-1 水庫操作與水庫供水能力 4
2-2 水庫即時操作缺水機率及缺水量分布 5
2-3 區域性缺水風險 6
第三章 研究方法 8
3-1 水庫供水能力與缺水 8
3-2 缺水機率推導 10
3-3 缺水量機率分布推導 12
第四章 研究區域與使用資料 14
4-1 系統基本資料 14
4-1-1 南化水庫 14
4-1-2 甲仙攔河堰 16
4-2 系統營運資料 16
第五章 結果與討論 21
5-1 南化水庫入流量機率分布 21
5-2 南化水庫各旬不同前置時期之缺水機率 31
5-3 南化水庫不同前置時期不同有效起始蓄水量之缺水量機率分布 35
5-3-1 相同前置時期不同有效起始蓄水量情況下的缺水量機率分布 35
5-3-2 不同前置時期相同有效起始蓄水量情況下的缺水量機率分布 37
5-4 討論 39
第六章 結論與建議 40
6-1 結論 40
6-2 建議 41
參考文獻 42
附錄A 各旬入流量於不同前置時期之擬合情況 45
附錄B 南化水庫各旬不同有效蓄水量之缺水機率 69

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