||Population Aging, Human Capital and Economic Growth: The case of Taiwan
||Department of Economics
隨著戰後嬰兒潮的人口邁入高齡、預期平均壽命的延長與生育率下降的人口變遷之下，導致台灣人口快速老化。近年來經濟學界對人口老化和經濟成長之間的關係做了不少論證和研究，許多研究指出人力資本的累積與經濟成長有密切關係。勞動者的教育水準提高及工作人口的年齡結構轉變將會影響一國經濟成長。因此本文將以教育程度與工作年資衡量人力資本來探討在人口老化下、人力資本與經濟成長之間的關係。本文利用時間序列資料 (time series data) 估計台灣1974-2007 年資料，實證結果顯示人力資本對每人產出有正向的關係，而本文利用經建會2008-2056年人口推估資料模擬未來人口老化對經濟成長的影響，模擬結果顯示人口老化對經濟成長有負面影響，但若增加未來政府教育支出或增加未來主力勞動人口將可減緩經濟成長降低的幅度。
This paper investigates the relationship between population aging and economic growth in Taiwan. A time-series model was built to explore the economic consequences of population aging. Given the ongoing population aging trend in Taiwan, this paper explores the impacts of population aging on human capital accumulation and economic growth. A scheme of human capital formation which takes into account of population aging, education attainment, and working experience was developed to obtain a proxy measure of levels of human capital. Then, a Cobb-Douglas production function was used to estimate the construction of human capital and physical capital to gross domestic production. Combining the estimates of production function with the medium variant population projections of 2008-2056, this thesis conducts simulations on various hypothetical demographic and scenarios and counterfactual policy prescriptions. Given the projected population trend, the simulation results show that increase in government education expenditure or increased injection of prime labor force can mitigate the falling trend of per capita output resulting from population aging.
List of Tables v
List of Figures vi
Chapter 1- Introduction 1
Chapter 2–Finding Proxy for Human Capital Stock 7
2.1 Literature Reviews 7
2.1.1 Cost-and Income-Based Measure: Human capital as a Function of Expenditures/ Earnings 7
2.1.2 Education-Based Measure 9
2.2 Human Capital Stock Estimations in Taiwan 11
2.2.1 Average Years of Schooling 11
2.2.2 Average Years of Working Experience 12
2.2.3 The Estimated Measure of Human Capital 13
Chapter 3–Methodology and Model specification 14
3.1 Literature Reviews 14
3.2 Model specification 18
3.2.1 Population transition and economic growth 18
3.2.2 The Determination of Human Capital Stock 20
3.3 Data Sources and Description Statistics 22
3.4 Unit Root Tests 25
Chapter 4 Empirical Estimates and Simulation 26
4-1 Empirical Estimate 26
4-2 Simulations 29
Chapter 5 Conclusion 34
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