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論文名稱(中文) 分析師是否考慮與理解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的資訊性?
論文名稱(英文) Do Analysts Impound and Understand the Informativness of Customer Concentration?
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 會計學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Accountancy
學年度 108
學期 2
出版年 109
研究生(中文) 周佳蓉
研究生(英文) Chia-Jung Chou
學號 R16074062
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 22頁
口試委員 指導教授-周庭楷
口試委員-楊朝旭
口試委員-吳思蓉
中文關鍵字 顧客集中度  分析師盈餘預測修訂  分析師盈餘預測偏誤  分析師經驗 
英文關鍵字 changes in customer concentration  analyst forecast revision  analyst forecast error  analyst experience 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究探討分析師在進行盈餘預測時,是否將公司顧客集中度對企業未來盈餘的影響,納入其考慮範圍內,以及對該指標是否能正確地理解。利用1988年至2018年間有關顧客集中度變化的資料。根據Patatoukas(2012)的發現,顧客集中度是個領先指標,因為公司的顧客集中度增加,可以預測該公司未來的營業績效將提升,因此探討顧客集中度的變化是否影響分析師盈餘預測修訂。研究結果發現分析師的盈餘預測修訂受顧客集中度變化的影響,亦即分析師在進行盈餘預測時會考量顧客集中度的資訊。然而研究結果亦發現預測偏誤與顧客集中度變化呈正相關,表明分析師並未完全理解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的含義。最後,本研究發現與其他分析師相比,經驗更豐富的分析師,能更理解顧客集中度對未來盈餘的影響。
英文摘要 Prior studies suggest that customer concentration is a leading indicator of performance in business, because efficiencies accrue to suppliers with concentrated customer bases. This study uses samples from 1988 to 2018 listed companies in the U.S. to examine whether analysts accurately capture and understand the information contained in measures of customer concentration. This study hypothesizes that analysts can incorporate changes in customer concentration in their earnings forecasts, but often can’t fully understand the meaning of them. This study finds that analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to changes in customer concentration even though they do not fully understand the implications of what is contained in their customer concentration data. The study then provides evidence that analysts with more experience are better at appreciating the implications of customer concentration data than others. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts often have difficulty completely understanding the meaning of complicated information.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧與假說發展 2
第三章 研究設計 5
第一節 顧客集中度衡量 5
第二節 實證模型設計 5
第三節 資料來源與樣本選擇 7
第四章 實證結果分析 7
第一節 敘述統計分析 7
第二節 相關係數分析 9
第三節 多元迴歸分析 12
第四節 額外測試 14
第五章 結論 16
參考文獻 17
附錄 變數定義 21
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