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系統識別號 U0026-1106201413531400
論文名稱(中文) 動態市場潛量之創新多代擴散模型-以iPhone為例
論文名稱(英文) Innovation Diffusion Model with Dynamic Multi-Generation Market Potential–The Case of iPhone
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生(中文) 林怡廷
研究生(英文) Yi-Ting Lin
學號 R36014163
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 51頁
口試委員 指導教授-耿伯文
口試委員-林清河
口試委員-李昇暾
中文關鍵字 創新擴散理論  動態潛量模型  智慧型手機 
英文關鍵字 Diffusion of Innovation theory  Dynamic potential model  Smart Phone 
學科別分類
中文摘要 近年來,由於科技的進步及人們生活習慣的改變,人們更換手機的次數更加頻繁,這種行為導致了智慧型手機的產品生命週期縮短。因此,對智慧型手機公司來說,如果能夠提前預知顧客的特性,並且依照產品目標市場、顧客,使用適當的行銷策略和製造程序來做規劃,將能夠大幅的提升產品的銷售量及降低成本。

此研究目標為建立一個創新擴散模型,能夠運用在多代創新產品上,並且為了提升模型預測能力及符合實際狀況,此模型將加入動態市場潛量的特性。此模型除了能夠預測銷售量,還能使研究者從預測的銷售量中,區分出首購及重購者,進而得知主要顧客的特性。

首先,此研究將分析Apple公司從2009年到2013年的歷史銷售資料,然後利用創新擴散理論的概念作為基礎,並應用動態市場潛量來改善此模型。最後,將從預測的銷售量中,依照顧客的特性將其分為首購及重購者,檢驗不同特性的顧客在銷售量中所佔的比例,並提出給下一代的產品的建議。
英文摘要 In recent years, people have been replacing their mobile phones more often than was the case in the past. As a result, the product lifetime of smart phones has been shortened. Therefore, it’s important that companies modify marketing strategies and manufacturing processes based on consumer behavior.

The purpose of this research is to establish an innovation diffusion model which can be applied to multi-generation products with a dynamic potential market. The researcher will be able to forecast sales volume by separating first-time adopters and repeat adopters.

The first phase of the project involves analyzing the historical data of the Apple company from 2009-2013. Then, the researcher utilizes the innovation of diffusion theory as the theoretical framework and applies dynamic market potential to revise the model. The final phase involves examining the demographics of customers which we are categorized as first-time adopters and repeat adopters. Suggestions for the next generation are provided.
論文目次 Contents
摘要 I
Abstract III
誌謝 IV
Contents V
List of Tables VII
List of Figures VIII
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Scope and Objectives 2
1.3 Research Procedure 2
Chapter 2 Literature Review 4
2.1 Diffusion of Innovation Theory 4
2.1.1 Definition of innovation 4
2.1.2 The Definition of Diffusion of Innovation 6
2.1.3 Attributes of Innovation Affect the Rate of Adoption 7
2.2 Basic diffusion model and the Bass model 8
2.2.1 Basic diffusion model 8
2.2.2 Bass Diffusion Model 10
2.2.3 The Criterion for Parameter Estimation 14
2.3 Extended Bass Model and Revision 17
2.3.1 Nine unreasonable assumptions of the Bass model 17
2.3.2 Multi-stages diffusion model 20
2.3.3 Dynamic Diffusion Model 21
2.4 The Norton Bass Model and the Multi-generation Diffusion Model of Innovation 22
2.4.1 The Norton Bass model 22
2.4.2 The Multi-generation Diffusion Model of Innovation 24
2.4.3 Related Research on the Norton Bass Diffusion Model 29
Chapter 3 Research Method 31
3.1 Research Framework and Proposition 31
3.2 Model Construction 32
3.3 Parameter Estimate 34
Chapter 4 Case Study 35
4.1 The Background of iPhone 35
4.2 Applying a Multi-generation Model to the Case 37
Chapter 5 Conclusions 45
5.1 Conclusions and Discussion 45
5.2 Future Research 47
References 49
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