進階搜尋


 
系統識別號 U0026-1009201418350400
論文名稱(中文) 人口老化、資本形成與經濟成長
論文名稱(英文) Population Aging, Capital Formation and Economic Growth
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 政治經濟研究所
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Political Economy
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生(中文) 羅慧君
研究生(英文) Huei-Chun Lo
學號 U18941056
學位類別 博士
語文別 英文
論文頁數 107頁
口試委員 口試委員-李慶男
口試委員-李世榮
口試委員-劉立凡
召集委員-謝文真
口試委員-胡政成
指導教授- 許永河
中文關鍵字 人口老化  人力資本  儲蓄  經濟成長 
英文關鍵字 Population aging  Human Capital  Saving  Economic growth 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文探討人口老化對日本經濟成長之影響;人口老化除導致勞動年齡人口減少,亦影響家計單位之儲蓄,進而影響整體經濟體系之資本形成。本文先探討人口老化對勞動人口數、勞動生產力之影響,兼論其對人力資本累積之效果。其次,鑑於不同年齡族群之儲蓄能力不同,故以生命週期假說下代表性個體一生年齡別之儲蓄率為基礎,探討老化社會之人口年齡結構改變對整體儲蓄、資本累積及經濟成長之影響。最後,整合人口老化、人力資源、人力資本,儲蓄及實質資本累積等因素,修改Solow (1965) 之經濟成長模型,探討人口老化對日本之資本形成及經濟成長之影響。本文實證結果發現年齡介於二十五歲至四十九歲的主力勞動人口群對人力資本累積扮演舉足輕重的角色,且日本之儲蓄率隨著人口老化而下降,造成經濟成長減緩。
本文採用日本國立社會保障人口問題研究所之人口中推計資料,估算人口老化對日本未來經濟的影響。本文之模擬研究顯示未來日本經濟成長將因人口老化持續呈現逐年下滑趨勢。為提高經濟成長率並挽救成長率下滑的趨勢,應該鼓勵儲蓄以提升資本存量及勞動生產力,並應鼓勵研究發展以持續提升要素生產力,以及引進國外壯盛之年的勞動人口。
英文摘要 This dissertation aims to explore the impacts of population aging on Japan’s economic performance. A demographic–economic growth model is applied to study the relationship among labor force age structure, human capital, saving and physical capital formation, and economic growth. The impacts of population aging on economic growth are decomposed into two separate effects: The effects on labor productivity and human capital formation, and the effects on saving and physical capital accumulation.
A new dimension of human capital accumulation to GDP growth is introduced by including the demographic factor in the context of human capital estimation and a significant role of prime labor cohort those aged 25 to 49 in the accumulation of human capital is found. Based on life-cycle hypothesis (LCH), saving rate varies with age and the profile of age structure as population aging evolves. Japanese empirical data indicates that Japanese saving rate declines with its aged population and the declining saving resulting from population aging leads to slow economic growth in Japan.
The empirical results in this study show the population aging would lead to decline in Japanese GDP growth for the next half century to come. Population aging also causes a decline in the rate of change in aggregate saving in Japan. Policy measures that prompt continuous increase in total factor productivity, encourage saving to increase capital formation should be considered to mitigate the declining growth rate trend.
論文目次 Abstract II
Acknowledgements III
List of Tables VI
List of Figures VII
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Population Aging, Human Capital and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Japan 5
2.1 Introduction 5
2.2 Model Specification and Methodology 8
2.2.1 Economic Growth Model 8
2.2.2 The Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration 11
2.3 Data and Results 13
2.4 Conclusions and Implications 18
Chapter 3 Population Aging, Labor Productivity, Labor Supply and Economic Growth in Japan 20
3.1 Introduction 20
3.2 Japan’s Population Profile: A Brief Introduction 23
3.3 Literature Review 30
3.3.1 Economic Growth 30
3.3.2 Human Capital 34
3.4 Model Specification and Methodology 36
3.4.1 Population transition and economic growth 36
3.4.2 Human Capital and Its Implications 40
3.5 Empirical Estimates and Simulation 42
3.5.1 Empirical Results 42
3.5.2 Baseline Scenario and Experimental Predictions 45
3.6 Discussions and Policy Implications 51
Chapter 4 Population Age Structure, Saving, and Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach 54
4.1 Introduction 54
4.2 Literature Reviews 57
4.2.1 Literature on the Aging and Savings 57
4.2.2 Literatures on Savings and the Economic Growth 59
4.3 Model Specification and Methodology 61
4.4 Empirical Estimation and Simulation 69
4.5 Discussions and Policy Implications 75
Chapter 5 The Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Revision of Solow Model 77
5.1 Introduction 77
5.2 Model Specification 78
5.2.1 The Solow Growth Model 78
5.2.2 The Revision of Solow Growth Model 80
5.3 Empirical Estimation and Simulation 82
5.3.2 Model Simulations 87
5.4 Discussions and Policy Implications 91
Chapter 6 Conclusions 93
6.1 Major findings 94
6.2 Policy Implications 97
References 100
參考文獻 Ando, Albert, and Franco Modigliani, "The "Life Cycle" Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests," The American Economic Review, Vol.53, No.1 (1963), pp.55-84.
Andrei, Elena-Adriana, and Catalin-Emilian Huidumac-Petrescu, "Saving and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol.20, No.7 (2013), pp.43-58.
Barro, Robert J., "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.106, No.2 (1991), pp.407-443.
Barro, Robert J., and Jong-Wha Lee, "Sources of Economic Growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.40, No.0 (1994), pp.1-46.
Barro, Robert J., and Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Economic Growth. Second Edition vols. (Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England: The MIT Press (2003).
Bayar, Yılmaz, "Savings, Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth in Emerging Asian Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Vol.4, No.8 (2014), p.17.
Becker, Gary S., Kevin M. Murphy, and Robert Tamura, "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.98, No.5 (1990), pp.S12-S37.
Benhabib, Jess, and Mark M. Spiegel, "The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.34, No.2 (1994), pp.143-173.
Birdsall, Nancy, Allen C. Kelley, and Steven Sinding, Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Edited by N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley and S. Sinding: Oxford University Press, (2001).
Blankenau, William F., Nicole B. Simpson, and Marc Tomljanovich, "Public Education Expenditures, Taxation, and Growth: Linking Data to Theory," American Economic Review, Vol.97, No.2 (2007), pp.393-397.
Bloom, D. E., D. Canning, and G. Fink, "Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.26, No.4 (2011), pp.583-612.
Bloom, D. E., D. Canning, R. K. Mansfield, and M. Moore, "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," J Monet Econ, Vol.54, No.1 (2007a), pp.92-114.
Bloom, David E, and Jeffrey G Williamson, "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, Vol.12, No.3 (1998), pp.419-455.
Bloom, David E., David Canning, Günther Fink, and Jocelyn E. Finlay, "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.23, No.4 (2007b), pp.569-585.
Bloom, David E., David Canning, and Pia N. Malaney, "Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Asia," Population and Development Review, Vol.26, (2000), pp.257-290.
Bloom, David E., David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla, "The Demographic Dividend:A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change edited by D. E. Bloom, D. Canning and J. Sevilla. (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2003).
Bloom, David E., David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla, "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Vol.32, No.1 (2004), pp.1-13.
Bloom, David E., and Jocelyn E. Finlay, "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol.4, No.1 (2009), pp.45-64.
Boulhol, H., The Effects of Population Structure on Employment and Productivity: OECD Publishing, (2009).
Braun, Richard Anton, The Saving Rate in Japan : Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low, (2009).
Chawla, Mukesh, Gordon Betcherman, and Arup Banerji, From Red to Gray: The World Bank (2007).
Domar, Evsey D., "Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment," Econometrica, Vol.14, No.2 (1946), pp.137-147.
Domar, Evsey D., "Capital Accumulation and the End of Prosperity," Econometrica, Vol.17, (1949), pp.307-314.
Engle, Robert F., and C. W. J. Granger, "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Vol.55, No.2 (1987), pp.251-276.
Faruqee, Hamid, "Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications_ a Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Paper, (2002).
Faruqee, Hamid, and Martin Mühleisen, "Population Aging in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Vol.15, No.2 (2003), pp.185-210.
Feyrer, James, "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.89, No.1 (2007), pp.100-109.
Fougere, Maxime, and Marcel Merette, "Population Ageing and Economic Growth in Seven Oecd Countries," Economic Modelling, Vol.16, No.3 (1999), pp.411-427.
Gomez, R., and P. H. de Cos, "Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth?," Review of Income and Wealth, Vol.54, No.3 (2008), pp.350-372.
Gomez, Rafael, and Pablo Hernandez de Cos, "Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth?," Review of Income and Wealth, Vol.54, No.3 (2008), pp.350-372.
Hafner, Kurt A., and David Mayer-Foulkes, "Fertility, Economic Growth, and Human Development Causal Determinants of the Developed Lifestyle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.38, Part A, No.0 (2013), pp.107-120.
Harrod, R. F., "An Essay in Dynamic Theory," The Economic Journal, Vol.49, No.193 (1939), pp.14-33.
Higgins, Matthew, "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Vol.39, No.2 (1998), pp.343-369.
Hondroyiannis, George, and Evangelia Papapetrou, "Demographic Changes, Labor Effort and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.23, (2001), pp.169-188.
Horioka, Charles Yuji, "Why Is Japan's Household Saving Rate So High? A Literature Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol.4, No.1 (1990), pp.49-92.
Iwaisako, Tokuo, and Keiko Okada, "Understanding the Decline in Japan's Saving Rate in the New Millennium," Japan and the World Economy, Vol.24, No.3 (2012), pp.163-173.
Johansen, Søren, "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.12, No.2–3 (1988), pp.231-254.
Jones, Charles I., "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.103, No.4 (1995), p.27.
Judson, Ruth, "Measuring Human Capital Like Physical Capital: What Does It Tell Us?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol.54, No.3 (2002), pp.209-231.
Keller, Katarina R. I., "Investment in Primary, Secondary, and Higher Education and the Effects on Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol.24, No.1 (2006), pp.18-34.
Kelley, Allen C., and Robert M. Schmidt, "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Demography, Vol.32, No.4 (1995), pp.543-555.
Kelley, Allen C., and Robert M. Schmidt, "Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Vol.18, No.2 (2005), pp.275-300.
Kelley, Allen C., and Robert M. Schmidt, "A Century of Demographic Change and Economic Growth: The Asian Experience in Regional and Temporal Perspective". In Contributions to Economic Analysis, edited by A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi: Elsevier, (2007a).
Kelley, Allen C., and Robert M. Schmidt, "Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis". In Contributions to Economic Analysis, edited by A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi: Elsevier, (2007b).
Kim, Soyoung, and Jong-Wha Lee, "Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia*," Asian Economic Papers, Vol.6, No.2 (2007), pp.22-53.
Kremers, Jeroen J. M., Neil R. Ericsson, and Juan J. Dolado, "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.54, No.3 (1992), pp.325-48.
Kumar Narayan, Paresh, "The Relationship between Saving and Investment for Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Vol.17, No.3 (2005), pp.293-309.
Kuznets, Simon, "Population and Economic Growth," Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, Vol.111, No.3 (1967), pp.170-193.
Leeuwen, Bas van, and Peter Foldvari, "Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890-2000: A Time-Series Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, Vol.22, No.3 (2008), pp.225-240.
Li, Hongbin, Jie Zhang, and Junsen Zhang, "Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.84, No.1 (2007), pp.138-154.
Li, Xing, Zeguang Li, and Man-wah Luke Chan, "Demographic Change, Savings, Investment, and Economic Growth," Chinese Economy, Vol.45, No.2 (2012), pp.5-20.
Lindh, Thomas, and Bo Malmberg, "Age Structure Effects and Growth in the Oecd, 1950–1990," Journal of Population Economics, Vol.12, No.3 (1999), p.431.
Lucas, Robert E. Jr. , "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.22, No.1 (1988), pp.3-42.
Mah, Jai S., "An Empirical Examination of the Disaggregated Import Demand of Korea—the Case of Information Technology Products," Journal of Asian Economics, Vol.11, No.2 (2000), pp.237-244.
Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David N. Weil, "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.107, No.2 (1992), p.31.
Mason, A., and T. Kinugasa, "East Asian Economic Development: Two Demographic Dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Vol.19, No.5-6 (2008), pp.389-399.
Mason, Andrew, "Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Ountries," In United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure. (Mexico City, 2005).
Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee, "Transfers, Capital and Consumption over the Demographic Transition". In Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, edited by R. Clark, N. Ogawa and A. Mason. (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, (2007).
Miller, S. M., "Are Saving and Investment Co-Integrated?," Economics Letters, Vol.27, No.1 (1988), pp.31-34.
Muto, Ichiro, Takemasa Oda, and Nao Sudo, "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model " Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, (2012).
Narayan, Paresh Kumar, and Xiujian Peng, "Japan's Fertility Transition: Empirical Evidence from the Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Vol.19, No.2 (2007), pp.263-278.
Nehru, Vikram, Eric Swanson, and Ashutosh Dubey, "A New Database on Human Capital Stock in Developing and Industrial Countries: Sources, Methodology, and Results," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.46, No.2 (1995), pp.379-401.
OECD, The Well-Being of Nations: The Role of Human and Social Capital: Centre for Educational Research and Innovation at the OECD, (2001).
Ogawa, Naohiro, Makoto Kondo, and Rikiya Matsukura, "Japan's Transition from the Demographic Bonus to the Demographic Onus," Asian Population Studies, Vol.1, No.2 (2005), pp.207-226.
Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-Run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No.9622 (1996).
Pesaran, M. Hashem, and Yongcheol Shin, "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis". In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, edited by S. Storm. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, (1999).
Pesaran, M. Hashem, Yongcheol Shin, and Richard J. Smith, "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, No.3 (2001), pp.289-326.
Prettner, K., "Population Aging and Endogenous Economic Growth," J Popul Econ, Vol.26, No.2 (2013), pp.811-834.
Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," Advances in Macroeconomics, Vol.1, No.1 (2001).
Romer, Paul M., "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.98, No.5 (1990a), pp.S71-S102.
Romer, Paul M., "Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.32, No.0 (1990b), pp.251-286.
Sánchez-Romero, Miguel, "The Role of Demography on Per Capita Output Growth and Saving Rates," Journal of Population Economics, Vol.26, No.4 (2013), pp.1347-1377.
Sequeira, Tiago Neves, and Elsa Vilar Martins, "Education Public Financing and Economic Growth: An Endogenous Growth Model Versus Evidence," Empirical Economics, Vol.35, No.2 (2008), pp.361-377.
Skans, Oskar Nordström, "How Does the Age Structure Affect Regional Productivity?," Applied Economics Letters, Vol.15, No.10 (2008), pp.787-790.
Solow, Robert M., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.70, No.1 (1956), pp.65-94.
Steinmann, Gunter, Alexia Prskawetz, and Gustav Feichtinger, "A Model on the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Journal of Population Economics, Vol.11, No.4 (1998), pp.535-550.
Tang, Benjamin Wong and Kam Ki, "Do Ageing Economies Save Less? Evidence from Oecd Data," International Journal of Social Economics Vol.40, No.6 (2013).
Werding, Martin, "Ageing and Productivity Growth: Are There Macro-Level Cohort Effects of Human Capital," Working Paper Series No. 2207, (2008).
Zhang, J., and J. S. Zhang, "The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.107, No.1 (2005), pp.45-66.
Zhang, Jie, and Junsen Zhang, "Longevity and Economic Growth in a Dynastic Family Model with an Annuity Market," Economics Letters, Vol.72, No.2 (2001), pp.269-277.
Zhang, Jie, Junsen Zhang, and Ronald Lee, "Rising Longevity, Education, Savings, and Growth," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.70, No.1 (2003), pp.83-101.
Zhang, Junsen, Jie Zhang, and Ronald Lee, "Mortality Decline and Long-Run Economic Growth," Journal of Public Economics, Vol.80, No.3 (2001), pp.485-507.
論文全文使用權限
  • 同意授權校內瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2016-09-12起公開。
  • 同意授權校外瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2017-09-12起公開。


  • 如您有疑問,請聯絡圖書館
    聯絡電話:(06)2757575#65773
    聯絡E-mail:etds@email.ncku.edu.tw