||Population Aging, Capital Formation and Economic Growth
||Graduate Institute of Political Economy
本文探討人口老化對日本經濟成長之影響；人口老化除導致勞動年齡人口減少，亦影響家計單位之儲蓄，進而影響整體經濟體系之資本形成。本文先探討人口老化對勞動人口數、勞動生產力之影響，兼論其對人力資本累積之效果。其次，鑑於不同年齡族群之儲蓄能力不同，故以生命週期假說下代表性個體一生年齡別之儲蓄率為基礎，探討老化社會之人口年齡結構改變對整體儲蓄、資本累積及經濟成長之影響。最後，整合人口老化、人力資源、人力資本，儲蓄及實質資本累積等因素，修改Solow (1965) 之經濟成長模型，探討人口老化對日本之資本形成及經濟成長之影響。本文實證結果發現年齡介於二十五歲至四十九歲的主力勞動人口群對人力資本累積扮演舉足輕重的角色，且日本之儲蓄率隨著人口老化而下降，造成經濟成長減緩。
This dissertation aims to explore the impacts of population aging on Japan’s economic performance. A demographic–economic growth model is applied to study the relationship among labor force age structure, human capital, saving and physical capital formation, and economic growth. The impacts of population aging on economic growth are decomposed into two separate effects: The effects on labor productivity and human capital formation, and the effects on saving and physical capital accumulation.
A new dimension of human capital accumulation to GDP growth is introduced by including the demographic factor in the context of human capital estimation and a significant role of prime labor cohort those aged 25 to 49 in the accumulation of human capital is found. Based on life-cycle hypothesis (LCH), saving rate varies with age and the profile of age structure as population aging evolves. Japanese empirical data indicates that Japanese saving rate declines with its aged population and the declining saving resulting from population aging leads to slow economic growth in Japan.
The empirical results in this study show the population aging would lead to decline in Japanese GDP growth for the next half century to come. Population aging also causes a decline in the rate of change in aggregate saving in Japan. Policy measures that prompt continuous increase in total factor productivity, encourage saving to increase capital formation should be considered to mitigate the declining growth rate trend.
List of Tables VI
List of Figures VII
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Population Aging, Human Capital and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Japan 5
2.1 Introduction 5
2.2 Model Specification and Methodology 8
2.2.1 Economic Growth Model 8
2.2.2 The Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration 11
2.3 Data and Results 13
2.4 Conclusions and Implications 18
Chapter 3 Population Aging, Labor Productivity, Labor Supply and Economic Growth in Japan 20
3.1 Introduction 20
3.2 Japan’s Population Profile: A Brief Introduction 23
3.3 Literature Review 30
3.3.1 Economic Growth 30
3.3.2 Human Capital 34
3.4 Model Specification and Methodology 36
3.4.1 Population transition and economic growth 36
3.4.2 Human Capital and Its Implications 40
3.5 Empirical Estimates and Simulation 42
3.5.1 Empirical Results 42
3.5.2 Baseline Scenario and Experimental Predictions 45
3.6 Discussions and Policy Implications 51
Chapter 4 Population Age Structure, Saving, and Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach 54
4.1 Introduction 54
4.2 Literature Reviews 57
4.2.1 Literature on the Aging and Savings 57
4.2.2 Literatures on Savings and the Economic Growth 59
4.3 Model Specification and Methodology 61
4.4 Empirical Estimation and Simulation 69
4.5 Discussions and Policy Implications 75
Chapter 5 The Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Revision of Solow Model 77
5.1 Introduction 77
5.2 Model Specification 78
5.2.1 The Solow Growth Model 78
5.2.2 The Revision of Solow Growth Model 80
5.3 Empirical Estimation and Simulation 82
5.3.2 Model Simulations 87
5.4 Discussions and Policy Implications 91
Chapter 6 Conclusions 93
6.1 Major findings 94
6.2 Policy Implications 97
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