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系統識別號 U0026-1007201716543100
論文名稱(中文) 二個偵測出版偏差的方法之比較
論文名稱(英文) Comparison of Two Methods for Detecting Publication Bias with Binary Outcomes
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 統計學系
系所名稱(英) Department of Statistics
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生(中文) 李佳芯
研究生(英文) Chia-Hsin Lee
學號 R26044077
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 36頁
口試委員 指導教授-嵇允嬋
口試委員-黃錦輝
口試委員-陳嘉民
中文關鍵字 出版偏差  漏斗圖  選擇模型  整合分析  權重函數 
英文關鍵字 funnel plots  meta-analysis  publication bias  selection model  weighted functions 
學科別分類
中文摘要 過去相關學者大部分是比較依據漏斗圖來檢定是否有出版偏差的統計方法,而學者Jin et al.(2015)指出到目前為止,尚未有研究者針對選擇模型的方法進行統計模擬比較。因此,本論文針對二元反應變數的整合分析論文,比較Dear和Begg及Copas選擇模型偵測與校正出版偏差的能力,以利後續研究者選擇適當的方法來檢定與校正出版偏差。Dear和Begg及Copas選擇模型方法最大差異在於選擇權重方式不同。經模擬發現,Dear和Begg的方法在高勝算比且研究論文間的異質性高時,其方法的型I誤差率表現失當,而Copas則維持要求的名目水準,所以檢定力比較只在研究論文間的異質性為較低時,其結果為Copas方法的檢定力都高於Dear和Begg方法的檢定力。接著,欲瞭解Dear和Begg及Copas選擇模型校正出版偏差的準確性,經模擬發現,在多種情況下,Dear和Begg的估計量之偏誤與均方誤差較Copas的估計量大,故本論文建議使用Copas選擇模型來偵測與校正出版偏差。
英文摘要 Publication bias is a major concern in meta-analysis, since it will lead to biased research conclusion. Many statistical methods have been developed to detect and adjust publication bias. However, Jin et al. (2014) mentioned that no simulation is conducted to investigate the performance of selection methods. Therefore, this thesis conducts a simulation study to compare two selection methods, Dear and Begg (1992) and Copas selection model, with binary outcomes. According to the simulation results, Copas selection model is recommended for use in both detecting and correcting publication bias.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 勝算比 4
第二節 漏斗圖 5
第三節 Dear和Begg選擇模型方法 7
第四節 Copas選擇模型方法 12
第三章 模擬設計與結果 17
第一節 模擬設計 17
第二節 模擬結果與討論 19
第四章 實例分析 29
第五章 結論與建議 31
參考文獻 32
附錄一 參數設定與推導 34
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4.Copas, J.B. and Li, H.G. Inference for Non-random Samples. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 59, 55-95 (1997).
5.Dear, K.B.G. and Begg, C.B. An Approach for Assessing Publication Bias Prior to Performing a Meta-Analysis. Statistical Science 7, 237-245 (1992).
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11.Jin, Z.C., Wu, C., Zhou, X.H. and He, J. A modified regression method to test publication bias in meta-analyses with binary outcomes. BMC medical research methodology 14, 132 (2014).
12.Jin, Z.C., Zhou, X.H. and He, J. Statistical methods for dealing with publication bias in meta-analysis. Statistics in medicine 34, 343-360 (2015).
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14.Peters, J.L., Sutton, A.J., Jones, D.R., Abrams, K.R. and Rushton, L. Comparison of two methods to detect publication bias in meta-analysis. The Journal of the American Medical Association 295, 676-680 (2006).
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16.Simonsohn, U., Nelson, L.D. and Simmons, J.P. p-Curve and effect size: correcting for publication bias using only significant results. Perspectives on Psychological Science 9, 666-681 (2014).
17.van Assen, Marcel, A.L.M., van Aert, Robbie, C.M. and Wicherts J.M. Meta-analysis using effect size distributions of only statistically significant studies. Psychological Methods 20, 293-309 (2015).
18.曾詠怡,整合分析在HIV與肺結核的關係,中原大學應用數學系碩士論文。(2012)
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