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系統識別號 U0026-0908201414573200
論文名稱(中文) 以模糊認知圖分析動態專案組合之研究
論文名稱(英文) An Approach of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to the Analysis of Project Portfolios in Dynamic Environments
校院名稱 成功大學
系所名稱(中) 工業與資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class)
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生(中文) 楊焙焜
研究生(英文) Pei-Kun Yang
學號 R37011338
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
論文頁數 60頁
口試委員 指導教授-李昇暾
指導教授-耿伯文
口試委員-林清河
口試委員-郭淑靜
中文關鍵字 認知圖  模糊認知圖  專案管理  專案組合管理 
英文關鍵字 cognitive map  fuzzy cognitive map  project manager  project portfolio manager 
學科別分類
中文摘要 隨著資訊科技的發達,企業面對市場環境的快速變動,需要應變的狀況增加,反應的速度也跟著變快,為了提高各項效能,企業對於資訊科技的依賴性更趨明顯,系統開發也多以專案型態來管理;在公司規模不斷擴張的情況下,隨著營業項目的增加,相對應所需要的各項系統與功能也要配合開發、維護,而企業往往以追求最低成本、最高獲利為目標,因此大多的開發資源會在同一時間為不同的專案所共有。做為專案的管理者,若無法有效掌握專案狀況,並對開發資源做有效的分配,將成為資訊系統開發的瓶頸所在。而在公司的專案組合中,管理者對於專案狀況,如開發者認知、提案單位的配合度、時間限制等,及可能造成開發進度的延遲因素的掌握,如何在面對各種不同的專案型態中,針對不同的情況,運用有限資源,在合適的階段做出最有效的資源分配與問題改善,達到最佳的開發績效,便受到挑戰。本研究主要探討開發團隊在面對各種影響專案開發成敗風險的因素時,可能造成的交互干擾狀況,並利用模糊認知圖,來表示專案組合中的各項關鍵節點與節點間權重關係,透過模糊認知圖的運算,模擬各項風險因子的變動,對於專案組合內容風險的可能影響,以此模式,提供決策者在管理所有專案時的參考依據。
英文摘要 This study is on the use of a fuzzy cognitive map to simulate project portfolio risk in dynamic environments and to analyze changes in risk to reduce project risk. The experimental data were collected from an information department within the enterprise, which is located in south Taiwan. Nowadays, many companies are increasingly dependent on information systems, making such systems very important to project management. However, although most studies focused on optimizing project portfolios, most IT departments were unable to select favorable projects. Thus, we return to a study of the nature of the project.
We apply characteristics of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to engage in case analysis and scenario simulation. FCMs enable project managers to face possible risks early in the process and to consider methods to reduce projects risk in different environments. We hope to increase the probability of success when executing a project portfolio to ensure that existing resources are used effectively. Moreover, managers will be able to reduce the incidences of wrong decisions being made on the basis of the simulation results in a dynamic environment.
論文目次 摘要 I
Extended Abstract II
誌謝 V
目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
圖目錄 IX
一、緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究動機 2
1.3研究目的 3
1.4研究流程 4
1.5論文架構 5
二、文獻探討 6
2.1專案 6
2.1.1 IT專案管理的挑戰 7
2.1.2專案管理的風險因子 8
2.1.3專案管理評估 9
2.2組合管理 9
2.2.1專案組合管理 10
2.2.2動態專案組合風險 11
2.2.3 動態專案投資組合的發展 12
2.3專案管理之分析方法 13
2.3.1認知圖的演進 14
2.3.2 模糊認知圖的定義 15
2.3.3 模糊認知圖的應用 17
三、研究方法 18
3.1問題描述 18
3.1.1研究情境 18
3.1.2研究現況 19
3.1.3研究限制 20
3.2研究流程 20
3.3模糊認知圖建構與分析 21
3.3.1建立認知圖 22
3.3.2建構模糊認知圖 22
3.3.3模糊認知圖推論過程 25
3.3.4小結 30
四、實驗與分析結果 31
4.1案例說明 31
4.2建立案例模糊認知圖 32
4.2.1定義認知圖 32
4.2.2建立模糊認知圖 35
4.3模擬與分析 36
4.3.1情境模擬一 36
4.3.2情境模擬二 38
4.3.3情境模擬三 41
4.3.4小結 45
五、結論與未來研究方向 46
5.1結論 46
5.2未來研究方向 47
參考文獻 48
附錄一:專案組合風險評估問卷 52
附錄二:專案組合風險模擬圖 56
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